Interest Rates

[Perry]

The RBNZ will signal negative interest rates around September, to coincide with the bankrupcy and closing of many big & small companies as wage subsidies run out and financial reports are released,they will be bad real bad.
It will lead to a second share market crash worldwide.

Im excited as I will become even more wealither with lower and future negative retail interest rates.

Check mate in 3 moves.

Depending on what the word "signal" means, we are almost at the end of September.

[Jeffa]

Depending on what the word "signal" means, we are almost at the end of September.

Well actually we did see our first negative yield bond so technically I was right...as usual.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-09/new-zealand-s-three-year-bond-yield-is-on-the-cusp-of-negative

[Jeffa]

Well actually we did see our first negative yield bond so technically I was right...as usual.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...sp-of-negative

And I do believe the sharemarket dumped this month...well I bought companies on sale.

[chook]

And I do believe the sharemarket dumped this month...well I bought companies on sale.

Jeffa is technically correct but very hard to get the exact timing right with the massive volatility within the markets currently, in a nutshell 2020 is the beginning, 2021 is the middle and 2022 is the end.

[Perry]

Technically correct?

The RBNZ will signal negative interest rates around September, to coincide with the bankrupcy and closing of many big & small companies as wage subsidies run out and financial reports are released,they will be bad real bad. It will lead to a second share market crash worldwide.

Somehow, some way, a determination by the RBNZ will trigger a worldwide share market crash?

I have my doubts.

[mistajosh]

Hey team, i check this thread often so thought I better contribute. Was recently offered 2.44% fixed 1yr and $7560 cashback to switch $1.2m across to ANZ.

BNZ who I am currently with came back with a counter offer of the same but with a $5400 cashback provided I forwarded them the offer email.

Easy money ✌

[khoed792]

wow care to share BNZ's email ?

[Perry]

Interest rates to rise 'significantly', house prices fall, economist says
16 Nov 2018

Another one bites the dust. Again and again.

But econ-o-mists never learn. Never have. Never will.

[donna]

Everything is negotiable!

cheers
Donna

[Jeffa]

Forever

Interest rates to rise 'significantly', house prices fall, economist says
16 Nov 2018



When a prediction includes such oxymorons as: could not keep falling forever, it's easy to see that it's just headline grabbing.

Prediction noted in my calendar under date: forever.

What is concerning is these forecast represent the 4 major banks and when there research departments get their predictions consistently wrong and the banks themselves rely on these forecast for there lending ,if you're applying for a mortgage there terrible forecasts will not only affect your mortgage application but the economy as a whole.
Now the big 4 are trying to virtue signal by bringing forward the 30% deposits for investors.

I'm looking forward to the day retail banks become obsolete and mortgages are processed directly through central banks online.

[Perry]

well I think we could well see rates force upwards on bond issues esp around countries with high household debt to GDP like NZ with clueless Govt. not helping .....I see rates being forced upwards from late 2020 IMHO .. and yes you could come off a 5yr right into higher rates but then you should have saved a good chunk over the previous years

Not happening, yet, it seems. (8 Aug 2020)

Not even close in November 2020, either.

[McDuck]

Everything is negotiable!

cheers
Donna

That really made me think.

Is everything for sale?

John Key and Judith Collins seem to be going places I wouldn't, - by socializing with ex brothel runners.

For me., at lest, won't do business with people involved in promoting prostitution.
(It's not a good life for the girls).

Even to slightly ease the housing shortage. The social price is just too high.
And it compromises the integrity of future Govts...hint hint..


see > https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...75S7MAIKDTFW4/

[McDuck]

You must be really bored Perry. Find yourself a hobby.

Ha!
It's better that you locked in at a higher rate, and spent a little extra, than not locking in, and failing to meet a commitment.
I for one really enjoy and appreciate the job Perry does to keep it real.
If the price for that service is his enjoyment from sticking it to people, I say, good on the cheeky devil, admit you got it wrong, and learn from it

[McDuck]

- this of course is on the condition the Central Banks + Govt
-allow price discovery in the DEBT markets -
- rather than what we have seen since 2008 - .

Why do you think that the RESERVE BANK would stop distorting price discovery all of a sudden?

[JBM]

Why do you think that the RESERVE BANK would stop distorting price discovery all of a sudden?

Central banks and Basel III have more or less removed price discovery from the credit markets, meaning risk does not have an accurate pricing mechanism in interest rates anymore. And now passive investing has removed price discovery from the equity markets. The simple theses and the models that get people into sectors, factors, indexes, or ETFs and mutual funds mimicking those strategies -- these do not require the security-level analysis that is required for true price discovery.

“This is very much like the bubble in synthetic asset-backed CDOs before the Great Financial Crisis in that price-setting in that market was not done by fundamental security-level analysis, but by massive capital flows based on Nobel-approved models of risk that proved to be untrue.”
-----Michael Burry

So I think like M.Burry who might I add puts its much better than I could ....you can't keep distorting markets , this has been going on for a very long time but how much longer the GFC was the first signs all was not good