Interest Rates

[elguapo]

If you make enough predictions you're bound to land one. Not sure I'd be to keen to follow the Jr oracle.

Everyone has a gamblers memory. Forget the losses and only remember the winner.

[Bluekiwi]

I got ASB to match BNZ's 3.99% for 5 years, so did that on a 400k mortgage, happy with that, as BNZ then increased their 5 year rate straight after I did it.

Have a large loan with BNZ due in May 2020, so will look at fixing that in march.
Would go for 3.99% if they could do that, but I expect the 5 year rate will be up by then.

I might see if their 18 month special at 3.35% is still going.

Apparently banks traditionally take off their special rates over Christmas, and then bring in some Feb specials, so will be interesting to see.

[ammar]

I got ASB to match BNZ's 3.99% for 5 years, so did that on a 400k mortgage, happy with that, as BNZ then increased their 5 year rate straight after I did it.

Have a large loan with BNZ due in May 2020, so will look at fixing that in march.
Would go for 3.99% if they could do that, but I expect the 5 year rate will be up by then.

I might see if their 18 month special at 3.35% is still going.

Apparently banks traditionally take off their special rates over Christmas, and then bring in some Feb specials, so will be interesting to see.

In your opinion, if I get 3.39% for one year or 18 months, it is better to go with 18 months?

[Bluekiwi]

Tricky, that depends entirely upon what you are going to do at the end of that 12 months or 18 months

If you are fixing short at the end to get the lowest rates, then I would go 18 months.

If I was looking to fix longer term, then I would go 12 months.

Maybe rates have jumped in 12 months, or maybe it takes 18 months, who knows.
my
For my reasons, I might going 18 months, as that will move the end of my fixed period from May to a November date, and that means I can get the November specials.

[ammar]

Tricky, that depends entirely upon what you are going to do at the end of that 12 months or 18 months

If you are fixing short at the end to get the lowest rates, then I would go 18 months.

If I was looking to fix longer term, then I would go 12 months.

Maybe rates have jumped in 12 months, or maybe it takes 18 months, who knows.
my
For my reasons, I might going 18 months, as that will move the end of my fixed period from May to a November date, and that means I can get the November specials.

You mean usually there are deals on November? The best I got is 3.55 from ANZ for one year and trying to get 3.39 for one year, they offered me this on November but I missed it. ASB and Westpac have this offer.

[Bluekiwi]

They call it the "Spring Specials" I believe, when the property market is hotest and the most sales occur

[JBM]

I got ASB to match BNZ's 3.99% for 5 years, so did that on a 400k mortgage, happy with that, as BNZ then increased their 5 year rate straight after I did it.

Have a large loan with BNZ due in May 2020, so will look at fixing that in march.
Would go for 3.99% if they could do that, but I expect the 5 year rate will be up by then.

I might see if their 18 month special at 3.35% is still going.

Apparently banks traditionally take off their special rates over Christmas, and then bring in some Feb specials, so will be interesting to see.

Hoping to get sub 4%-- 5yr fixed rate mid 2020 ... 3.7%-3.9% would be Brilliant would still only fix 50% to 75% of my debt over 5yrs as I plan to reduce my business debt shorter term and take on more commercial property debt .. Might well move to ASB as they offered me $1k cash per 100k in debt and much better commercial rates being not much higher than RES offered

[Perry]

. . . ASB as they offered me $1k cash per 100k in debt and much better commercial rates being not much higher than RES offered

Now that's an interesting development.

[Perry]

Prediction date: 22 Nov 2018

I think the way things are going we will be in recession next year by second quarter.

Nuvver one that's missed the date.

[McDuck]

Nuvver one that's missed the date.

Oh come on Perry,

Anyone can be wise in hindsight.

And I'm not saying that you're not doing good work.

Because reminding people how difficult it is to predict the future is good work.

But, to be fair, you could make a few predictions of your own.

and join the rest of us mere mortals.

[Judge]

Oh come on Perry,

Anyone can be wise in hindsight.

And I'm not saying that you're not doing good work.

Because reminding people how difficult it is to predict the future is good work.

But, to be fair, you could make a few predictions of your own.

and join the rest of us mere mortals.

Agreed. These messages used to be funny, but not anymore. We have to make plans for future and for that we need to have a view of what the future holds. Even if our views and predictions do not eventuate, so what? Shall we all stop thinking?

[Wayne]

But, to be fair, you could make a few predictions of your own.

and join the rest of us mere mortals.

It is far easier to criticise.

[Bluekiwi]

Perry has stung me once too, but I guess I cant be right all the time like Trump.

This is "Interest Rates" thread, how did it get highjacked to predictions anyway, that should have its own thread, mods need to get their shit together.

On that.
ANZ has made a bad move, a bad look if you ask me.
Putting up a few rates as first move of the year, when all of NZ and its GDP is being affected by Coronavirus.

Anyone with half an economic brain will see the economic exponential affects it will have on NZ considering our close connections with china on trade and tourism.
This will affect GDP and economic growth, and jobs and employment, just look at Crayfish and forestry and tourism and education sector as immediate straight of the bat issues.

And it is entirely feasible that if they dont drop the OCR in response to this in Feb, and go for a wait and see approach.
They make need to make an emergency OCR drop at some stage this year, as this will feed into confidence and inflation.

So for ANZ to increase rates now is a very bad look.

[Perry]

Shall we all stop thinking?

It is far easier to criticise.

Even easier still to remain silent and risk being thought a fool than to make a prediction and remove all doubt.

[Wayne]

Even easier still to remain silent and risk being thought a fool than to make a prediction and remove all doubt.

I suppose people should stop sharing their ideas on where they think things are going.