Interest Rates

[Perry]

Sounds good. Especially given your prediction on such matters. How's it looking?

I predict one OCR increase at end of year, and Interest rates longer term ones, slightly increasing from June.

[Bluekiwi]

Don't be a dick Perry.
Any prediction hijacked by CV19 is off the table buddy, get real, don't be a pratt.

[Perry]

Uh-oh. So predictions are what, then?

No more than an excuse for logical fallacy ad hominem name-calling?

Keep smiling.

[Beano]

Sounds good. Especially given your prediction on such matters. How's it looking?

Do the opposite of what I do .
I am always wrong :-(

[Don't believe the Hype]

Heartland Bank has just dropped their rate to BELOW 3%... 2.89% for 1 yr

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/mortgage-rates.html

[JBM]

I see my bank Westpac 5yr down to 3.89% basically what I signed up for 1yr back JUL19 ... wow thats brilliant longer term hedge as rates will at some stage before long will be forced up
here prob 1-2yrs out from present ...

As unemployment rises 20%+ / loan defaults hit record highs in turn dropping NZ credit rating.. its all looking very dicey we aren't getting past it as easy as we did during the GFC with little pain

We have far too much employment in the sectors that will be hit the hardest.. some 20% kiwis employed in property+tourism sectors lent alone retail

[Don't believe the Hype]

Hi JBM - I predicted wrongly that interest rates would sky rocked after the last financial crisis in 2008 - in a number of places they tried to increase rates only to have them quickly come back down.

Why do you think rates will raise this time ?

[JBM]

Hi JBM - I predicted wrongly that interest rates would sky rocked after the last financial crisis in 2008 - in a number of places they tried to increase rates only to have them quickly come back down.

Why do you think rates will raise this time ?

Paper money and out-of-control national debts have always devalued the currency and caused major inflation(which needs higher rates to fight) ... now GFC was bad where the credit markets came close to collapse ... but going off the present operations from the FED their is talk we could see a bail-out some 10X larger than the GFC!! ..so you have those factors of just trillions more currency flooding into economy while businesses are going out of business = less products less competition =higher prices etc

Then we have the issue of the lenders with huge leverage in the present bubble housing market esp. in Aus ... not sure if your've watched "The Big Short" Movie
But it can be like domino's falling .. and we have so much bad news hitting I can't see the BOND market staying good for much longer.. and with the FED at ZERO they can't go any lower>> like they did with the much smaller GFC so surely the real risks of holding these HUGE debts must demand a higher rates of return or why hold?

[Don't believe the Hype]

Thanks - JBM... so to distill it the economic reasons I feared higher interest rates in the GFC still apply its is simply the scale of the bail out being far larger which makes the chances of higher interest rates more likely.

Is that what you're saying?

[JBM]

Thanks - JBM... so to distill it the economic reasons I feared higher interest rates in the GFC still apply its is simply the scale of the bail out being far larger which makes the chances of higher interest rates more likely.

Is that what you're saying?

Well a major driver yes but I could be wrong and we could see negative rates introduced.. but I find that hard to compute here in little NZ who will be happy to take are growing debts(when we roll over govt bonds etc)and risks tied to are nations high debt to incomes and poor savings record... NZ love affair with property is coming back to bite.. primary industries will really be the backbone that will dictate how we come out of this mess IMHO

[Perry]

3-11-2018.
The reasons interest rates are likely to rise worldwide are . . . .

If only we knew what the future will bring, eh?

Chinese fortune cookies, anyone?

23-10-2018
With the NZ dollar tracking down, and the US economy strengthening, interest rates could start to rise ??

Oops - cancel that.

4-4-19
It's a signal the whole economy is going down south. Expect redundancies from NZ companies to accelerate.

That was in relation to the OCR, but is occurring, even though for quite different reasons.

[JBM]

I see some sub 3% rates 1-2yr fixed turning up... looking good for my re-fixing in JUL

[Judge]

I see some sub 3% rates 1-2yr fixed turning up... looking good for my re-fixing in JUL

Which bank?

[Bluekiwi]

I am happy with my 3.05% for 18 months.

No commentators expect "much" decline from here, and banks cant even process new loan apps so they are not wanting to compete with specials - at the moment.

Some feel there could be a slight drop to maybe 2.95% latter this year.

[Psilan]

banks cant even process new loan apps

Is that true?

I had BNZ call me the other week asking when I would like to complete my application.