Interest Rates

[Perry]

It's a signal the whole economy is going down south.

Expect redundancies from NZ companies to accelerate.

When do you expect that to happen? (Prediction noted)

[Learning]

A friend was made redundant just before the minimum wage increase kicked in. Purely coincidental I'm sure.

[GLin]

When do you expect that to happen? (Prediction noted)

Unfortunately based on the stats that Tony Alexander just sent out today, his BNZ Weekly Overview, things still look rosie compared to 2009.

I say within 12 months or so.

[eri]

on Friday BNZ cut its three-year term to 3.95 per cent - down from 4.2 per cent
- matching a move by rival ASB bank.
Locally owned TSB bank will also offer the same rate as part of its promise to match any rate advertised by the Australian-owned banks.

expected all the major banks to match the rates.
"If they are not doing it by advertised rates, they are certainly doing it by negotiation," he said.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz//personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=12219508&ref=clavis

[GLin]

China bank has dropped rates to 3.65% for 2 years (with conditions).

I think my prediction of 3.5% by Xmas 2019 is a bit conservative now...

[Hound]

Think the banks usually have these margins built in, Gary.

The Chinese banks are leading the charge downwards. Like Kiwibank did last decade.

I have loans coming up in October and December, I'd say 3.69% by then. Prefer to fix one year than for three, in this climate.

[BlueSky]

When do you expect that to happen? (Prediction noted)

Major teleco's are all cutting , pretty sure more to come from other corporates. interesting times.

[Perry]

Major teleco's are all cutting , pretty sure more to come from other corporates. interesting times.

Cutting what?

[BlueSky]

Cutting what?

Or should I say culling ?

[Perry]

Right.
Not prices. Staff.
Except those expensive cardboard cut out suits at the top.
The ones who have no direct customer interaction.
Or productive role to play, day-to-day.
Sounds about right.

[JBM]

Anyone getting sharp 5yr or longer rates ...sure I seen 4.39% 5yr .... thats sharp and tempting

[Perry]

Normally 10 years in NZ economic cycle. I think the way things are going we will be in recession next year by second quarter.

How are circumstances and that prediction looking, now?

[eri]

just phone renewed a small anz loan from 4.12% a year

to 3.95% a year

could have gone 3.99% for 2 years

but didn't think would be losing anything by taking the lower rate

[sidinz]

So you think the sub-4% rates are around for a while?
Think they'll go any lower?

[eri]

why not?

nz has followed many similar but bigger economies down to reserve bank rates of 1.5%

we'll probably be at <4% mortgage rates until things start to pick up globally

and there seems no sign of that...

i'm only fixing for 1 year

as am betting the rates will be the same or lower next year

oz now 1.5%, with an outlook for 1.25% next month https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/interest-rate