The way it used to be...

[tpr2]

personally viking I believe some traders will do just as well as they have in any other market.

The good ones will do well.
The average ones will crash and burn.

Yes it will be a good time for long term investors. No doubt about that.

I don't really get the conflict between expat and yourself.

I like expat's posts, I don't have to agree with them but they are certainly worth contemplating and more often than not they have helped me to develop new paradigms around investing as do badgers and steve netwriters.

I doubt they will ever get me off the property investment band wagon because I have been on it for over 20 years. I also own a number of businesses that as tan mentioned in another post create a vested interest for me in people buying property for investment purposes.

What they will do though is make me look left and right before I cross the road though.

[exnzpat]

Thanks Terry, thanks Gibber.

I’ve never advocated getting out of property investment, rather, get out while the getting’s good and store your money safely away – either in property (long term) or in a simple savings account until better times return.

I remember my New Zealand high school math. School Certificate, Math – I passed. UE – Math, I passed. But, even so by the time I got to the States and into University I realized that the NZ school system had done me wrong! I was woefully inept with real and practical mathematical concepts – it was a hard slog. My university made me repeat High School Math before I was allowed to take any of the university courses! That's how bad the NZ education system is (at least as far as math is concerned).

I was not making fun of Viking, just pointing out what those numbers really mean.

Viking’s excerpt from the newspaper was a classic play on numbers that is designed to dupe the average schooled New Zealander into believing that he/she lives in the land of milk and honey.

With a little manipulation the news item also shows that New Zealand, between 1962 and 2008 had a 58.14% increase in the population, and yet, at the same time had a decrease of 1.09% in births. Probably, not a good thing as far as property is concerned – it actually means that there should, at sometime in the future, with immigration curtailed, be an excess of housing – which as we know will create an environment of declining rents and home values.

But, the real shocker is: why are these new immigrants not having children?

[67910241]

understanding of the point I was making which was for their benefit that NZer's are having lots of babies

That's a great point I see over and over again.

Who's having those babies?

Which socio-economic strata of the population?

You'll find that the same strata that easily build bad tenant and credit records, happily live in overcrowded conditions, generally do a lot of damage to the property they're inhabiting (be it theirs or more likely not), underperform in school and professionally, and, why be too PC about it, overindulge in crime, have by far the MOST children of any population group.

Yes, they too are NZ-ers.

But your prime home buyers and tenants are more likely to have 1 or 2 kids than 4 or 5. In other words, in the long run they barely replace their own numbers (or don't).

Face it, the bulk of your perceived population growth is coming from the most financially underperforming parts of the society. The parts that may some day force the NZ welfare system to cut off the dole tap due to their sheer numbers. The parts that one day may become much more disgruntled and violent.

The parts that can cause more harm than good to the financial health of the economy, including your local property market.

[mjmarketing]

I remember my New Zealand high school math. School Certificate, Math – I passed. UE – Math, I passed. But, even so by the time I got to the States and into University I realized that the NZ school system had done me wrong! I was woefully inept with real and practical mathematical concepts – it was a hard slog. My university made me repeat High School Math before I was allowed to take any of the university courses! That's how bad the NZ education system is (at least as far as math is concerned).

Unfortunately not only maths expat - all other subjects as well - and we both went to school in a similiar era.
I am a trained teacher and have worked with education in both Australia and England.

I was under the mistaken impression that our education system was one of the best in the World - was I in for a rude awakening! - English children were at least 1yr ahead of ours and Aussies 2yrs!

The NCEA which has replaced the old School Cert. is not recognised in many overseas countries (including USA) and many high schools are now doing the Cambridge exams from England.

I have also always been amused that we have been much aclaimed for the best Reading Recovery programme in the World - why I ask do we need such a progamme???? - it's because we have so many children slip through the cracks in learning reading in the first place

[Viking]

Expat, you are playing with numbers that are meaningless. What matters is our increase in population today from yesterday. Really that simple. Our longterm ups and downs are meaningless in the daily use of housing as we have been underbuilding anyway. Auckland ,according to housing research is some 4000 homes short. and that was just a couple of months ago. ( Australia is 100,000 homes short.and if you check out Cairns Lockies latest newsletter William Cairns has a litlle bit to say about the Sydney property market, which supports what I have been saying.)

679, you must live in an office with no windows or you are blind. Go walk around the towns and just see who is pushing prams. Your attitude keeps you blind.

MJ, most of the wealthy people I know left school before you teachers could stuff up their attitudes anyway. Education is good but attitude towards success, whatever that maybe for any single person, has much greater power.

[k1w1]

The NCEA which has replaced the old School Cert. is not recognised in many overseas countries (including USA)

Are you suggesting School Cert was recognised? Or UE for that matter?

What about the other way round - NZ still doesn't recognised fully-trained doctors and other medical staff from many countries. We're not talking some poxy school qualification here, but university-trained and work-experienced doctors.

[mjmarketing]

Are you suggesting School Cert was recognised? Or UE for that matter?

What about the other way round - NZ still doesn't recognised fully-trained doctors and other medical staff from many countries. We're not talking some poxy school qualification here, but university-trained and work-experienced doctors.

Enjoyed your comment re SCert/UE recognition - you could well be right.

And yes I know of many instances where overseas trained professionals cannot get jobs here. It's a disgrace especially when we are crying out for these people.
I recenly heard about a highly qualified English eye surgeon who could not get a job here and consequently had to go back to England.

[mjmarketing]

MJ, most of the wealthy people I know left school before you teachers could stuff up their attitudes anyway. Education is good but attitude towards success, whatever that maybe for any single person, has much greater power.

A very sweeping statement - did you have a bad experience at school?

At least you recognise that education does have some standing. There are a lot of very dedicated teachers out there who spend lot of time trying to motivate children to have good self-esteem and make something of their lives.

And yes I do agree that it is most important to have a good attitute towards success.
The old adage - 'If you think you can, you can - if you think you can't, you can't.'

[exnzpat]

Expat, you are playing with numbers that are meaningless. What matters is our increase in population today from yesterday. Really that simple. Our longterm ups and downs are meaningless in the daily use of housing as we have been underbuilding anyway. Auckland ,according to housing research is some 4000 homes short. and that was just a couple of months ago. ( Australia is 100,000 homes short.and if you check out Cairns Lockies latest newsletter William Cairns has a litlle bit to say about the Sydney property market, which supports what I have been saying.)...

Viking,

What are you saying? They were numbers from your post – I only quantified them.

In their present form, as illustrated by the newspaper article, the numbers were meaningless and arbitrary -- but by creating a simple ratio we can compare them. We can make sense of them. I see no harm here; other than the fact that you cannot accept the obvious mathematical truth of those quantified numbers!

But, the issue is not poor math skills – it is your blind and single-mindedness to find something good in this current financial crisis. Babies? An odd choice – but if it works for you – then why not.

I say to you, all of you: stop living in a dream-world and start putting your financial house in order.

The grass is not always greener on the other side of the fence – there is no place to run or hide from this thing. Take your lumps and learn from it – but above all; be prepared!

[tricky]

I say to you, all of you: stop living in a dream-world and start putting your financial house in order.

The grass is not always greener on the other side of the fence – there is no place to run or hide from this thing. Take your lumps and learn from it – but above all; be prepared!

I'm not sure why you keep telling us what to do.
Do you enjoy wagging your finger at people?
Do you have aspirations of being a superhero and saving the world?

[k1w1]

He has an "I Told You So" air about him, tricky.

ITYS Man. Faster than a speeding repossesion agent. Able to leap tall blocks of overpriced leaky Auckland flats in a single harrumph.

[exnzpat]

I'm not sure why you keep telling us what to do.
Do you enjoy wagging your finger at people?
Do you have aspirations of being a superhero and saving the world?

Because you people are costing me money!

Every day that you sit back and wait for your property values to start increasing at 20% per quarter again is just another day that helps raise the disparity in the market place. The longer you wait – the worse it will be i.e. more dollars out of everyone’s pockets.

What would I have you do? Start selling your houses again – but for realistic prices. This may mean tens, twenties or even hundreds of thousands of dollars less than what you paid for them. But, by acting today you may very well be around to do new business tomorrow.

Yes, you will be left holding a massive debt to the bank and yes it will hurt. But, it will be far worse if you drag your feet. 60 or 70 cents on the dollar is better than 20 or 30 cents on the dollar – anytime!

Don’t believe me? Go get a QV today and then get another one six months from now. Post it here. And then we shall see.

Am I a Superhero? Nope -- just a concerned investor with a crap load of money to lose – just like the rest of you.

[Flyboy]

The way it used to be

What would I have you do? Start selling your houses again – but for realistic prices. This may mean tens, twenties or even hundreds of thousands of dollars less than what you paid for them. But, by acting today you may very well be around to do new business tomorrow.

Now why would you do that especially with interest rates falling making holding costs much more affordable. Who knows how long this recession is going to go on for and to take a hit now if you do not need to simply does not make sense.

If you are so worried about the situation why are you not selling your properties off holus bolus now?

In the last recession I knew a guy who saved his lifestyle block by using credit cards to pay one off against the other. The bank said they would foreclose if they did not receive regular payments. By doing this he saved his property and avoided a huge loss!

[exnzpat]

I did sell all my properties – but one. Now all I'm asking is that its value does not drop any further. Isn't that what we all want?

[Tucker]

In another thread Expat you were talking like you owned more than one