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  1. #5521
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    15,120

    Default The Ghost of Predictions Past

    Quote Originally Posted by WINZ View Post
    Ive given a time-frame before, but were expecting from Q2 2018 onwards (likely late 18 - early 19) - you can hold me to that.

    Damage - impossible to quantify but the GFC was approx $22 trillion in asset devaluations and direct economic damage (i.e lost output).

    I would expect that the US stock marker will at least half (50-60%) which alone is probably $20 trillion. Add in real estate, bonds (currently $11 trillion are yielding negative returns globally), global assets etc and you have a large sum of money.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Kane View Post
    Good man.
    A date: mid 2019 at latest
    Magnitude: US stock market at least half what it is now (Dow Jones: 16 Jan 2018 = 25,792)
    My interpretation of this: you are claiming the Dow Jones will drop below 13,000 before June 2019.
    Is this right?

    Perry, can you set this up on that trusty diary of your please?
    Done! So now, here we are.

    How's that prediction looking, folks?
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  2. #5522
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    napier
    Posts
    159

    Default

    Don't worry Its coming Perry, and the longer it goes on the worse the fallout will be, 2020 will be a very interesting year. Trump administration has been pumping "Methodone" into their economy so they can make it to the November elections without the house of cards collapsing, four and a half trillion was pumped in at the last share market jitters period a couple of months ago. Enjoy the show Boom!

  3. #5523
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    15,120

    Default

    The problem with "it's coming," is that such will likely come true.

    One day.

    Just no one knows quite when.

    Doesn't stop all the failed guesses, though.
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  4. #5524
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    1,094

    Default

    I bet my life that it will happen before my death. ;-)

  5. #5525
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    3,688

    Default

    "Don't worry it's coming"
    That's a sure sign that the author is just making stuff up and enjoys spreading doom.
    "Next year" - the cry of all dreamers.
    As has been said before, the banks and governments won't let a crash happen.

  6. #5526
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    1,094

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Kane View Post
    As has been said before, the banks and governments won't let a crash happen.
    As said before the last crashes too.

    No one "lets" a crash happen. They just forget to stop pushing when they reach the edge of the clif.

  7. #5527
    Join Date
    Apr 2018
    Posts
    225

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by chook View Post
    Dpumping "Methodone" into their economy so they can make it to the November elections without the house of cards collapsing, four and a half trillion was pumped in at the last share market jitters period a couple of months ago. Enjoy the show Boom!
    With the US stock guys doing dodgy deals like using defunct but open businesses, tying them to take Chinese buinsesses, or stretching the truth of production beyond ridiculous. Is another US crash feasible?

    How much did John Key pump into the NZ economy during the 2008 GFC to halt us at a small 4% not the 40% we likely deserved given we have nothing much more going for us than Ireland at the time? In Dollars was there a figure?

    Given personal lending is 150% to annual GDP, I cant see there being a bail out should it occur again?

  8. #5528
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    15,120

    Default Hedonics Again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bluekiwi in Jan 2016 View Post
    Where will people put money with shares about to crash, where will people go with economies cracking, and political issues snowballing......
    Quote Originally Posted by eri View Post
    google's chief economist thinks the problem is not the poor productivity of the modern economy, but the 70 year old tools economists use to try and measure it.
    Did the shares crash?

    As for tools, should we abandon other measuring tools such as meters, centimetres and millimetres, too? They'd be well over 70 years old, wouldn't they?
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  9. #5529
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    15,120

    Default Six Months Later

    New Zealand at risk of a house price crash: Bloomberg
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris W View Post
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