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  1. #5371
    Join Date
    May 2008
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    3,581

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris W View Post
    The report is saying that there is a higher probability than previously of property prices crashing given current conditions. The report is not saying that there is a 100% chance of property prices crashing or a 0% chance of property prices crashing.

    Some people comment as if there is a 100% chance of property prices crashing
    Some people comment as if there is a 0% chance of property prices crashing.

    In reality the probability of property prices crashing is somewhere between those two extremes.
    In summary: something may happen, maybe.
    Jeez, that really helps.
    Thanks

    Every week we see reports about "the sky is falling, maybe".
    After a while you see a pattern emerging.

  2. #5372
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    3,032

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris W View Post
    OnTheMove,

    Whitianga holiday apartments price dropped from 600k to 150k? Wow - that is a massive 75% drop.
    Any other large price drops that you're aware of?
    I am aware that the price of coastal sections in the far north (more than two hours drive from Auckland) tanked completely in the last crash.

  3. #5373
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    274

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Kane View Post
    In summary: something may happen, maybe.
    Jeez, that really helps.
    Thanks
    If you believe the risk warning is irrelevant or unlikely to affect you due to your circumstances, then feel free to ignore it.

    If you live on the West Coast or at 200-300m above sea level, then a tsunami warning resulting from an earthquake in the Pacific Ocean may be irrelevant to you.

    If on the other hand, you live in low lying beach front property on the east coast of the north island where a tsunami might hit, then you might want to take notice and act or you may choose to ignore the warning altogether. It is your choice, but you don't get to choose the consequences of your choice.
    Last edited by Chris W; 04-08-2019 at 04:38 PM.

  4. #5374
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    3,581

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris W View Post
    If you believe the risk warning is irrelevant or unlikely to affect you due to your circumstances, then feel free to ignore it.
    Thank you.

  5. #5375

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris W View Post
    OnTheMove,

    Whitianga holiday apartments price dropped from 600k to 150k? Wow - that is a massive 75% drop.
    Any other large price drops that you're aware of?
    That was a special situation if I recall correctly, was off the plan and had taken a while to build. If you google you will find though.

    This is why old timers always say buy land not the house, houses depreciate, its the land the goes up in value. But Im not a buy and hold person. But even with massive drops if a portofolio is spread over 30 years it should come out on top. 20% PA is obviously not sunstainable, not matter who is writing the article, imo if you read that kind of hype you know immediately it is propaganda. The facts are what they are about the NZ Economy. Our debt to GDP ratio is horrible and our income to housing debt ratio is terrible. It doesnt take a rocket scientist to realise even if we produced another 40k houses and somehow got quality immingration, Aucklanders cannot afford the mortgages and to a large degree ow the rents being asked.

    Why are we not doing what Gareth Morgan suggests and fix the problem by assett testing Pensions?

    On one extreme you have guys like Morgan who find multi milliionaires claiming a Pension a disgrace and on the other one vary famous (forgot the guys name he means that much to me haha) laughing about how he earns near 7 figure income from his asset profit but he is laughing at how funny it is he can claim a pension and does so. Sickening.

    If we assett test the Pension, then it is putting the onous back on the baby boomers to largely fun their own retirement. Because the next generation will have to that is becoming obvious.

    The answer is not building more houses and watering down the employment market with immigrants who cant afford the housing anyway. Its just dumb politics, something Id expect from Labour not to be able to handle.

    We need to be increasing our GDP and milk is not the answer, there is a lot of kick backs in recent documentaries on Milk and now they are on mainstream netflix, NZ needs to start to become a smart GDP, finance, technology and media including movie production needs to be sold more hard core, we have the infrastructure in place and the guys with the experience to do it, Jackson, Sam Neil etc. Id say Crowe but he is never sure if hes a kiwi or Aussie :-)

  6. #5376
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    14,879

    Default Next Sophistry

    If only [the dream that] asset testing National Superannuation would fix all (even most of) our problems, I might accept the notion.

    one vary famous [person] laughing about how he earns near 7 figure income from his asset profit but he is laughing at how funny it is he can claim a pension and does so. Sickening.
    I wonder how much tax said sickening person pays and how many times his/her national superannuation is paid back.
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  7. #5377
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    3,032

    Default

    Asset testing or means testing pensions sounds great, but the reality is quite different.

    It could not be just a one-off test at 65 (or whatever age you choose).

    The difficulty is that a person who passes the asset/means test on Friday may well win Lotto on Saturday or inherit heaps after rich Uncle Fred dies on Monday.

    Someone else may well be affluent on Friday and discover that their money pile in Ross Asset Management (or whatever) is a mirage on Monday.

    People's financial statues is never static

    Thus you would need to repeat the test at distressingly frequent intervals.

    I can imagine that the cost of that, say at every six months, in staff office computers paper ink and so on may well outweigh the savings involved.

    Also, realize that the pension is part of the recipients taxable income.
    Thus those who still have have substantial other incomes usually end up paying more in income tax that they get in the pension - in effect, they are self-funding their own pension payment.

    Those who say "Shock - horror -look at the outrageous cost of the pension!!" are invariably looking at the gross amount, not the net after-tax figure.

  8. #5378

    Default

    There seems to be a similar story every day for the last several years. Everyone has been waiting in anticipation since 2017 for some form of crash

  9. #5379
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    14,879

    Default Topical Given Exnzpat's Reappearance, Today.

    From 24 August 2013.

    Red type is my emphasis.

    Original post here.

    Quote Originally Posted by exnzpat View Post
    Of course, you know "economic disaster ahead" has been my mantra all along. And slowly the pundits are catching up with me, citing things like income to home price parity, rising NZ dollar or any of the host of other things Iíve suggested here on this board over the years. But no one listens. They hear only what they want to hear--and that's fine. I've come to grips with it.

    Finally, Iíve got hard evidence the fact. And so, despite what you may think, here it comesÖ. So hold on to your hats. The money train is about to grind to a lumbering halt in New Zealand (something it should have done in 2008 or 2009, in my opinion), so itís long overdue.

    I expect a mass exodus of the population to find work. I expect to see mass default on mortgages and a crash in the New Zealand dollar. Also, I expect interest rates fall (which will be good for those of us who have hung-in there all this time). Dogs will bark in empty streets and babies will cry. Tumbleweeds will tumble, testament to the terrible times ahead...


    Interest rates are certainly down.

    But the terrible times are where?
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  10. #5380
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Posts
    7,575

    Default

    A model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York puts the odds that a recession might begin within the next 12 months at over 37%.

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...on-the-economy
    have you defeated them?
    your demons


 

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