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  1. #5421
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    14,984

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    Quote Originally Posted by OnTheMove View Post
    I know you are very Rent/Cashflow focussed. I'm referring more to the over all health and prosperity of Kiwis as a whole, not just the landlords.
    You may still mis-perceive.

    What I'm getting at is that the contemporary and populist gloomy forebodings will - in many cases - have little or no adverse effect on most settled PIs.

    Yes, overall economics are not understood by almost all of the population. Especially econ-o-mists and those who really believed that Labour could auto-magically conjure up 10,000 affordable houses in 12 months and voted accordingly. Most people vote on a what's-best-for-me basis. Not on what's-best-for-NZ, something Flyer has oft made mention of.
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  2. #5422

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    Quote Originally Posted by OnTheMove View Post
    Personally I think we are already seeing it.

    With a down turn in median house price, now just bobbing up and down (indecisive market).

    Kiwi homes being a total failure.

    People cannot afford to buy homes in Auckland, our price to income ratio is absurd beyond greedy, just absurd.

    House sales figures significantly different to 2017, particularly total time a property sits on the market.

    Personal debt 150%+ of our very single big player and very fragile GDP.

    Im not buying into we will crash like Ireland 2006, although it is possible. I think we have already lost 10%, if an international economic crisis occurs I think we will lose another 20%, but in reality, in 2017 I think we were 40% over priced. So I then think a long slow flat line for 10 years will occur. Not a guru or financial advice but thats what I can see occuring IF things go that route.

    What Im more interested in is when will the down turn and slowing market hit the rest of NZ, prices in Whakatane asking $900k etc, come on. I mean I love the place but the rest of NZ now seems to be out pricing Auckland.
    I think you are correct here about house prices in the regions. i.e. Whakatane etc. I believe the recent regional surge has done it's dash.

  3. #5423
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    3,057

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    I fought for years to survive in small businesses that (in my view) would benefit the country.
    However, when you try that you find that everything is stacked against you - the difficulties of finance ("What real estate can you offer as security for that business loan?"), the punitive legislation and vulnerability if you dare be stupid enough to employ staff, and the peculiarities of the tax system (I once had to pay $40k provisional tax on zero income).

    Eventually I saw the light. No point in trying to be 'useful' or 'productive'.
    Better go with the flow and play the game as the rules dictate, however 'unfair' that they may seem.

  4. #5424
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    8,354

    Default

    So what are you saying here flyernzl? Sounds like you've sold up and gotten out of the game.

  5. #5425
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    14,984

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    I think you perceive wrongly, David, and I imagine Peter will explain.
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  6. #5426
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    3,057

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Davo36 View Post
    So what are you saying here flyernzl? Sounds like you've sold up and gotten out of the game.
    What I mean is that when I realised what is really going on I ceased trying to be useful and productive and just joined the ranks of work-shy and greedy.
    (No, not public servants and politicians - residential landlords).
    Last edited by Perry; 12-10-2019 at 03:14 PM. Reason: fixed typo

  7. #5427
    Join Date
    Feb 2015
    Posts
    130

    Default

    Knowing when to walk away....one life's best Aces !!!

  8. #5428

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by flyernzl View Post
    Eventually I saw the light. No point in trying to be 'useful' or 'productive'.
    Better go with the flow and play the game as the rules dictate, however 'unfair' that they may seem.
    And that sucks right. What if the Government was giving you grants and bigger players to help you through scenarios? I bet that would have helped. Id rather give a small business $20k or even $50k and the help of a bigger player as a mentor, than pay $350 per week to an arrogant multi millionaire who has no possible need for $350 a year. Especially if they made their money in property or ASX.

    The only way we improve our GDP and lower that debt to GDP ratio is get more functional small-medium sized businesses supported and functioning in good and bad times.

    In 2008 we bailed out the property market, how much of that money went to Small business? Id rather have had a 40% loss in our property market and see out GDP sore. Because then we can afford things like Health (free health insurance) and Schools along with a proper retirement system set at 9% like Australia not some half and attempt at 3.5%. Kiwi Saver at the moment reminds me a lot Kiwi Homes. No money to do it the proper way because we do not support small business and we do not support health care and we do not support free education.

    Instead we are a consumer society that generates TAX via spending. How much longer can that last at average household income of $53k?

    Properties in every city are now pretty much near their limit.

    We have damning reports on us being the most unsustainable property market in the world, or 2nd. Look at our Graphs and tru and argue with the facts.

    The scary part is we do not generate enough GDP to even cover our personal lending if a financial crisis hits, let alone our property market.

    No I do understand you Perry. You feel settled. You think most Property Investors are not worried about what some are saying is coming. YOu feel there is no way their portfolio could be wiped out by facts that havnt occured yet. Of course you are right. But Im not here to scare people Im just saying it how it looks. And if it does occur the only sympathy I have is for young people trying to get ahead buying a $900k house with $200k deposit and suddenly losing $350k on their dream, not only have they lost $200k, they are no in debt for $150k and oh no interest rates rose from 3.5% to 20%. Forclouse. I have no symptahy for PI's because they will have their investments baracded behind some for of trust fund and they can just sell up to keep a few in positive gear or wait for the rebound which imo is usualy quick for the first 10%.

    Of course just because we have shocking property indicators, doesnt mean armgageddon will happen. Auck could bubble like this for the next 20-30 years and if incomes increase we may just come out unscathed.

  9. #5429
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    14,984

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    Quote Originally Posted by OnTheMove View Post
    No I do understand you Perry. You feel settled. You think most Property Investors are not worried about what some are saying is coming. You feel there is no way their portfolio could be wiped out by facts that haven't occurred yet. Of course you are right.
    I don't think I'm right, at all. But tell me why PIs with low-to-no debt should be worried?

    What I'm getting at is that sweeping statements about the future are unwise prognostications.

    Ten thousand affordable houses per year being the best current example that we've seen.
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  10. #5430
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    287

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    Quote Originally Posted by Perry View Post
    But tell me why PIs with low-to-no debt should be worried?
    It depends on each individual property investors objectives. For example:

    1) income oriented
    2) capital gain oriented
    3) total return oriented (combination of income and capital gains)
    4) tax oriented property investors - due to ring fencing losses of property losses against taxable income from other property rentals.
    5) other

    Some property investor objectives may be more at risk of not being achieved, than other property investor objectives.
    Last edited by Chris W; 16-10-2019 at 05:29 PM.


 

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