Financial Armageddon!!

[Perry]

The Ghost of Predictions Past

I’ve given a time-frame before, but we’re expecting from Q2 2018 onwards (likely late ‘18 - early ‘19) - you can hold me to that.

Damage - impossible to quantify but the GFC was approx $22 trillion in asset devaluations and direct economic damage (i.e lost output).

I would expect that the US stock marker will at least half (50-60%) which alone is probably $20 trillion. Add in real estate, bonds (currently $11 trillion are yielding negative returns globally), global assets etc and you have a large sum of money.

Good man.
A date: mid 2019 at latest
Magnitude: US stock market at least half what it is now (Dow Jones: 16 Jan 2018 = 25,792)
My interpretation of this: you are claiming the Dow Jones will drop below 13,000 before June 2019.
Is this right?

Perry, can you set this up on that trusty diary of your please?

Done! So now, here we are.

How's that prediction looking, folks?

[chook]

Don't worry Its coming Perry, and the longer it goes on the worse the fallout will be, 2020 will be a very interesting year. Trump administration has been pumping "Methodone" into their economy so they can make it to the November elections without the house of cards collapsing, four and a half trillion was pumped in at the last share market jitters period a couple of months ago. Enjoy the show Boom!

[Perry]

The problem with "it's coming," is that such will likely come true.

One day.

Just no one knows quite when.

Doesn't stop all the failed guesses, though.

[Learning]

I bet my life that it will happen before my death. ;-)

[Bob Kane]

"Don't worry it's coming"
That's a sure sign that the author is just making stuff up and enjoys spreading doom.
"Next year" - the cry of all dreamers.
As has been said before, the banks and governments won't let a crash happen.

[Learning]

As has been said before, the banks and governments won't let a crash happen.

As said before the last crashes too.

No one "lets" a crash happen. They just forget to stop pushing when they reach the edge of the clif.

[OnTheMove]

Dpumping "Methodone" into their economy so they can make it to the November elections without the house of cards collapsing, four and a half trillion was pumped in at the last share market jitters period a couple of months ago. Enjoy the show Boom!

With the US stock guys doing dodgy deals like using defunct but open businesses, tying them to take Chinese buinsesses, or stretching the truth of production beyond ridiculous. Is another US crash feasible?

How much did John Key pump into the NZ economy during the 2008 GFC to halt us at a small 4% not the 40% we likely deserved given we have nothing much more going for us than Ireland at the time? In Dollars was there a figure?

Given personal lending is 150% to annual GDP, I cant see there being a bail out should it occur again?

[Perry]

Hedonics Again?

Where will people put money with shares about to crash, where will people go with economies cracking, and political issues snowballing......

google's chief economist thinks the problem is not the poor productivity of the modern economy, but the 70 year old tools economists use to try and measure it.

Did the shares crash?

As for tools, should we abandon other measuring tools such as meters, centimetres and millimetres, too? They'd be well over 70 years old, wouldn't they?

[Perry]

Six Months Later

New Zealand at risk of a house price crash: Bloomberg

For full article refer https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/pro...rash-bloomberg

[Perry]

I suppose the nationwide anti-virus lockdown is a sort of financial Armageddon.
It's going to be a rough ride, folks.
<Enter all the conspiracy theorists.>

[Judge]

Perry are you asking people to make predictions so you can tells us in 6 months they did not come true? Everyone is sick and tired of this game...

[Wayne]

<Enter all the conspiracy theorists.>

They have been out of force for a while.

[chook]

Don't worry Its coming Perry, and the longer it goes on the worse the fallout will be, 2020 will be a very interesting year. Trump administration has been pumping "Methodone" into their economy so they can make it to the November elections without the house of cards collapsing, four and a half trillion was pumped in at the last share market jitters period a couple of months ago. Enjoy the show Boom!

Hello Hello anybody there?

[chook]

"Don't worry it's coming"
That's a sure sign that the author is just making stuff up and enjoys spreading doom.
"Next year" - the cry of all dreamers.
As has been said before, the banks and governments won't let a crash happen.

"Making stuff up", "The cry of all dreamers", "The banks and govts wont let this happen" Hello Hello anyone there??

[JBM]

I suppose the nationwide anti-virus lockdown is a sort of financial Armageddon.
It's going to be a rough ride, folks.
<Enter all the conspiracy theorists.>

It certainly is 2020 Great Depression 2.0 .. commercial property is going to get crushed(Res property less so)... I see adidas has stop paying rents along with other muti-nationals retail giants overseas in Euro .. so much for contracts when they can use COVID19 as an excuse not to pay the landlord aka protecting capital first...
this is not going be over anytime soon ....very rough ride for sure