Financial Armageddon!!

[eri]

ever been to thames, ohura

or any other of the nz towns will falling populations?

at the moment with our overall population growth they still remain largely functional even as they shrink

but if our immigration and birth rates were as low as japan's

the populations of our shrinking towns

would fall further and faster

leading to the problems as seen in the video

[Davo36]

ever been to thames, ohura

or any other of the nz towns will falling populations?

at the moment with our overall population growth they still remain largely functional even as they shrink

but if our immigration and birth rates were as low as japan's

the populations of our shrinking towns

would fall further and faster

leading to the problems as seen in the video

eri, you're a clever guy, surely you can see that immigration is not the answer.

Increasing populations are just ponzi schemes. Think about it, we have 5 million now, but only 3 million in the 70s. So surely the problem has been solved? 2 million extra people! But no, it's actually just made things worse, because it just means more people getting older, meaning more younger people are needed, but then in time they become older, so we have even more older people, necessitating even more younger people and on and on.

What we need is a sustainable population. But we don't seem to know how to do that. We need to work it out though.

[eri]

what is the sustainable population for nz?

i've heard 20 mil

which would be 1/5 of japan's 125mil

and 1/3 the uk's 63mil

not in our lifetimes perhaps

as we don't have the infrastructure yet

[Bob Kane]

The actual population doesn't matter.
If you do it right, you'll get by comfortably whatever the population.
If you do it wrong, you'll struggle whatever the population.
If you think we are struggling in NZ, then that's a sign that we are doing it wrong.
Hint - how many people think their councils are doing a great job on infrastructure?
Sort out those problems.
Don't get sidetracked about population and immigration.

[Davo36]

what is the sustainable population for nz?

i've heard 20 mil

which would be 1/5 of japan's 125mil

and 1/3 the uk's 63mil

not in our lifetimes perhaps

as we don't have the infrastructure yet

20 million? It used to be 5, then 10... the number just keeps going up.

It's a number always higher than what we currently have that many people cite. Especially those in business who want an ever expanding population to sell to.

[McDuck]

The actual population doesn't matter.
If you do it right, you'll get by comfortably whatever the population.
If you do it wrong, you'll struggle whatever the population.
If you think we are struggling in NZ, then that's a sign that we are doing it wrong.
Hint - how many people think their councils are doing a great job on infrastructure?
Sort out those problems.
Don't get sidetracked about population and immigration.

Nice.

You're going in the right direction.

They were distracted by the small picture.

You're being distracted by the middle scale picture.

But, for a totally successful result, you need to think bigger.

[McDuck]

20 million? It used to be 5, then 10... the number just keeps going up.

It's a number always higher than what we currently have that many people cite. Especially those in business who want an ever expanding population to sell to.

I'd argue that no place is sustainable.

Not totally.

It's just a self contained misconception.

We'll never be big enough to produce , say, smartphones (for a practical cost), or some medical advances, or high tech batteries.

So, there is no right "population number" (for high tech civilization at least).

We're part of an integrated whole.

[McDuck]

ever been to thames, ohura
or any other of the nz towns will falling populations?

ok, nice, a captive example.

sooooo… I'll walk you through it.

Ohura was a coal town.

That was its main reason for being.

It's raison d'être.

If you want to make it what it was, you need to give it a reason for being.

Possibly create an electric car, or hydrogen car, or some sort of energy research hub there.

The poet in me wants to lever off the coal history as a continuation of the energy theme.

I don't know, maybe turn it back into bush, who says a coal town needs to exist when coal is out of favour.

Whatever you do, best not to slow down the motorways and load up the social services any more, just on that flimsy whim.

For goodness sake, make a New Zealand Version of Duck Dynasty there, for all I care, load the place up with a TV production crew, and sell it to the US.

there might even be a natural resource there, you'd have to have a look and chat with the locals.


On the other hand, maybe you just need a lucky dog.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwPLlbFNb8w

[BlueSky]

Interesting read
https://www.mia.org.au/documents/item/752

https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1819/Quick_Guides/PopulationStatistics

With all its issues, it brings in wider economic benefits - Melb and Sydney wouldn't be such big cities if it wasn't for migrants.

Scale of economies too.
There's is urban shift happening in NZ too , some towns would not exist in 20 years.

[eri]

question duck

where does the arrogance come from?

[Davo36]

Melb and Sydney wouldn't be such big cities if it wasn't for migrants.

So you'd be able to drive around the city then?

Scale of economies too.

Hear this all the time. It's nonsense.

If it were true, then everyone in the UK would be rich. But they ain't.

[eri]

a belated thanks for the compliment Davo

yes, it is a complicated equation and i don't believe anyone has all the answers

part of the problem being everyone gains and loses different from changing demographics, population levels etc.

i came through pokeno today and it's growing at a stupendous rate

presumably waikato is getting a HUGE boost in rate payers, but pukekohe/auckland is providing the bulk of the services they will use

is that fair, is it sustainable - i don't know!

but dormitory suburbs in another locality are a "cheat" that's in full use world-wide, from new jersey/new york to guangzhou/hong kong

part of the problem is the lie of "user pays"

local gov. voting rights allow anyone living in a locality to vote for increased spending to be paid for by the minority land owning rate-payers

so whichever mayor or councillor promises the most services gets in

similar with national gov.

all over 18 can vote for more "spending" to be paid for by the minority net tax payers

a simple solution to nz's shortage of "workers" and "savings" is to settle on the endless growth model, where we import young hard workers to pay more in taxes than they currently cost in benefits, and sell our stuff to the highest bidders

we all have similar ideas for the need to better balance the economy

but have no agreement on where that should be

as i've spend about half my life overseas in bigger? countries with less generous social welfare spending

it seems obvious to me that nz simply can't afford more welfare spending without earning more through exports

but my feeling that we "obviously need to live within our means" probably says more about my "character" than "pattern recognition ability/IQ"

the next few years in the uk are going to be very educational

most brits seem to now NOT want brexit

or

a hard left labour gov. under corbyn

unfortunately their 2 main parties seem only able to offer those alternatives

apparently nz got the new $6 billion? lord of the rings amazon tv series

because the other shortlisted choice, scotland, was too risky for such investment until after brexit had been worked out

[McDuck]

a belated thanks for the compliment Davo

yes, it is a complicated equation and i don't believe anyone has all the answers

Haha.

Sorry, I was in a rush yesterday morning, I didn't mean to bruise your ego.
It's all tongue-in-cheek anyway.

I agree, no "one" has all the answers.
But is "reason" the property of a single individual, or is it just something we're all a conduit for?

Bringing it down to the small picture.
I don't want more people because I'm tired of being stuck in lines.
I can't even think of a single person who enjoys waiting in lines.
With hospitals, some people even die waiting.

But to the point.
What are you personally going to get out of more people?
That's a serious question, what's in it for you?

[Learning]

It's the unorganized and reactionary way NZ deals with a growing population while at the same time egressing infrastructure for "goodwill" vibes that confuses the heck out of me.

Building buckets of Coronation Street townhouse complexes in the burbs. These units have no availability for off street parking. While at the same time car parks are being ripped out and replaced with cycle lanes.

No additional classrooms, medical facilities or an other infrastructure improvements built in the area. Reducing and centralizing local policing resources away from the burbs.

Tapping yet another extension on the end of an extended extension on the end of a hundred year old water and sewage system. The hundreds of kilometers of old pipes are slowly being replaced 50cm at a time as they fail for the seventh time in two years in the exact same spot.
Theses pipes are are failing faster than they can be patched and the complete replacement cost is unthinkable for any future Council official. Watching the repair effort after the Christchurch quakes, perhaps the Wellington Council is holding out for the big one so the government will step in and replace all the aging pipes for them?

Growing a population to play catchup for an aging labour force and growing retirees liability can only be successful if the infrastructure to support them is in place beforehand.

[eri]

not about my ego duck

you say this to bob

Nice.
You're going in the right direction.
They were distracted by the small picture.
You're being distracted by the middle scale picture.
But, for a totally successful result, you need to think bigger.

do you have some Nobel prize in economics that we should know about?

'cause that's about the only podium that would make such rudeness understandable between normal adults