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I’ve given a time-frame before, but we’re expecting from Q2 2018 onwards (likely late ‘18 - early ‘19) - you can hold me to that.
Damage - impossible to quantify but the GFC was approx $22 trillion in asset devaluations and direct economic damage (i.e lost output).
I would expect that the US stock marker will at least half (50-60%) which alone is probably $20 trillion. Add in real estate, bonds (currently $11 trillion are yielding negative returns globally), global assets etc and you have a large sum of money.
Good man.
A date: mid 2019 at latest
Magnitude: US stock market at least half what it is now (Dow Jones: 16 Jan 2018 = 25,792)
My interpretation of this: you are claiming the Dow Jones will drop below 13,000 before June 2019.
Is this right?
Perry, can you set this up on that trusty diary of your please?
For those of you who follow (and understand) the shear market, how are those numbers looking now? (1 June 2020)
Brilliant got hit hard during march watched all my profits for 19/20 get wiped ...shifted some funds around with Gold stock focus and just 2 months later near 10% higher that my highest portfolio high in FEB .. dirt cheap money + FEAR Business unemployment civil war + Property bubbles.... I'm more than happy to be holding my stocks
Gold price outlook very bullish... copper also trending higher
Whether the perceived value goes up or down, what are / were the dividends? Or ROI - if you prefer.
I have only one parcel of shares - in the local port company. It's just advised no six-monthly dividend. No idea what's happened to the value of those shares, though.
I have rentals and the rent has kept coming in at the same levels. No idea what's happened to the value of those rentals, though.
I have only one parcel of shares - in the local port company. It's just advised no six-monthly dividend. No idea what's happened to the value of those shares, though.
Port of Napier I presume - you can see the share price here
Napier Port has been serving Hawke’s Bay and its surrounding regions for nearly 150 years. As the fourth largest port in New Zealand by container volume, Napier Port helps to build a thriving region by connecting our customers and community to global markets.
Whether the perceived value goes up or down, what are / were the dividends? Or ROI - if you prefer.
Many companies have stopped dividends for now - until they see where all this is going (company profit wise).
Shares went down (most but not all - some went up) and then went back up.
Most have regained the majority of their value.
Was a good opportunity to buy a few more of good companies.
Thanks for that link. I do not even know what I paid for the shares I have.
I was a part of the HB community that wanted ownership to stay local. The initial AGM was interesting. Lots of ma & pa investors and a lot of familiar faces. One enduring memory was the announcement that 97% of the port employees had become shareholders at the IPO. They wondered - out loud - if that might be something of a record.
Many companies have stopped dividends for now - until they see where all this is going (company profit wise).
Shares went down (most but not all - some went up) and then went back up.
Most have regained the majority of their value.
Was a good opportunity to buy a few more of good companies.
Yeah I have reduced the dividends from the properties too until I know which way things are heading too!
Forced sales don't have to be advertised. Kiwis do not earn enough to carry high losses if interest rates climb much. All I have read at my intermittent PT views lately are about -CF in AK with stability in capital gains. The era of capital gains in NZ has gone for now.
Changing market and my prediction is quick Asian withdrawal at any price in the next 6 months. Lots of supply soon with no backing from banks to lend to investors unless prices drop which banks will not stomach. A standoff until banks come under pressure then all bad.
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