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  1. #5291
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
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    740

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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueSky View Post
    When and by how much is unknown. One cant make financial decision based on a time event- hence think long term. So I bought at the peak of 2006 , it's up by over 100% , why does it matter to me?
    But the USA that, of course, hasn't happen as they still haven't seen Real House values pass the peaks reached pre-GFC

    In Japan real house values are only 84% of the highs reached some 20yrs ago

    NZ like Aus have MAJOR Bubbles in the property market(really unaffected by GFC) as to why we see the rates continued to push downwards as the reserve banks hope to keep the cheap money games going to keep Cindy and team in power

    Unless average household incomes increase HUGELY its at best going to flatline as rates continue to fall going forward
    Last edited by JBM; 16-05-2019 at 04:41 PM.

  2. #5292
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    14,745

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    Quote Originally Posted by JBM View Post
    Unless average household incomes increase HUGELY . . . .
    And what real productivity might induce that?
    With all the Draconian new laws for residential rental LLs, perhaps AirBnB would be better? To avoid any hassle in Hawke's Bay, consult Be My Hostess. Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  3. #5293
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    740

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    Nothing this Govt will allow ...Mining - Oil & Gas high priced exports... the fact is we are going backward as a Nation more tourism jobs making 30k-40k pa more RE agents and sales ... Vs $80k+ Export driven jobs

    But even then I just don't see it .... I guess more rate cuts lending to cheaper money might at least stop prices dropping in main centers and help push other lower prices areas a touch higher ... I see the west coast is one of the new property growth areas ... (LOL you know the end is near)

  4. #5294
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    14,745

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    Quote Originally Posted by PTILoveYou View Post
    Chinese sharemarket will crash sometime this year...
    That prediction was May 2015.

    Any signs of a crash of note, yet?
    With all the Draconian new laws for residential rental LLs, perhaps AirBnB would be better? To avoid any hassle in Hawke's Bay, consult Be My Hostess. Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  5. #5295

    Default

    Another great prediction from the oracle Garry Lin

  6. #5296

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JBM View Post

    Unless average household incomes increase HUGELY its at best going to flatline as rates continue to fall going forward
    Average household income will not increase hugely. With immigration/supply being constant or increasing, pay will stay the same.

  7. #5297
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    740

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    Quote Originally Posted by LifeBroker View Post
    Average household income will not increase hugely. With immigration/supply being constant or increasing, pay will stay the same.
    Unless like we see in central Otago region(and Iím sure many others) employers forced to pay more to attract skilled workers .. as costs of living are so high now(limited rentals)
    only rich immigrants can afford to shift here .. housing here has really outpaced av. Incomes

    We really need no property growth in value for the next decade to let inflation in incomes to catch up

  8. #5298
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    250

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JBM View Post
    We really need no property growth in value for the next decade to let inflation in incomes to catch up
    Another way of achieving the outcome of more affordable housing for the local population earning local incomes would be if property prices fell (for potential owner occupier property buyers), or rentals fell (for renters).

  9. #5299
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Posts
    7,529

    Default

    ^

    would anyone ever bother building again?

    much easier to fight over old houses

    ...

    i see some auckland apartments, yet to be built, are now priced at about 20,000/m2

    so $700,000 for a minimum sized 35m2 studio??? that could be rented out for $500pw??? a return of <3?%???...why bother with capital gain

    seems to me that puts a floor under how far prices could fall

    ...

    meanwhile trump says if he's not reelected

    it will trigger the next recession

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americ...lected-in-2020

    considering we are starting to be overdue one

    and the US bond yields? are flashing red...

    but he has a point

    the coalition winning in nz stopped the economy + a lot of investment here

    a democratic victory there in 2020? would probably bring their/our next crash forward a few years
    Last edited by eri; 16-06-2019 at 07:29 PM.
    have you defeated them?
    your demons

  10. #5300
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    2,982

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    "affordable housing for the local population earning local incomes would be if property prices fell (for potential owner occupier property buyers), or rentals fell (for renters)"

    Or if the overhead costs of owning rental property - such as council rates and insurance premiums - actually decreased instead of going up by 50% over recent years.


 

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