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  1. #4841
    Join Date
    May 2008
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    Torbay, Auckland
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    3,792

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    Quote Originally Posted by JBM View Post
    https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-...y-low-interest

    The bad news is that Kiwi households are still in record levels of hock relative to disposable income. The good news is continuing low interest rates are keeping debt servicing costs at moderate levels.


    Labour+NZF+Green will lead us to much higher rates as the NZD drops inflation kicks in ...
    The high level of govt spending will be inflationary as well.
    Paul Magill B.com
    Bluekiwi Property Consulting
    [email protected]

  2. #4842
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    13,059

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    Please, can some of you erudite people explain to me something I don't understand about inflation and gummint spending.

    Labour is oft-branded by the Gnats as a tax and spend party.

    The gNats themselves are a borrow and spend party. (They increased taxpayer debt from 18 to 80 billion dollars in their nine years of tenure.)

    Given that we hapless taxpayers must eventually cough up for those billions (never mind the interest in the meantime), what is the difference to taxpayers and inflation consequences between

    Labour tax and spend

    and

    gNational borrow and spend?


    Please try to keep the explanation simple for my enfeebled brain. (Jargon and three-syllable words wont cut it! )
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  3. #4843
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Torbay, Auckland
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    3,792

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    Quote Originally Posted by Perry View Post
    Please, can some of you erudite people explain to me something I don't understand about inflation and gummint spending.

    Labour is oft-branded by the Gnats as a tax and spend party.

    The gNats themselves are a borrow and spend party. (They increased taxpayer debt from 18 to 80 billion dollars in their nine years of tenure.)

    Given that we hapless taxpayers must eventually cough up for those billions (never mind the interest in the meantime), what is the difference to taxpayers and inflation consequences between

    Labour tax and spend

    and

    gNational borrow and spend?


    Please try to keep the explanation simple for my enfeebled brain. (Jargon and three-syllable words wont cut it! )
    You are confused by labour politicking and the fact that their was the GFC where National had to keep NZ running and not going into a depression like most countries.

    But imagine all the tax payer money goes into a big bank vault and the government of the day drives out the money it spends each day in vehicles.

    National drive a Sedan out each day.
    Labour drive an articulated truck.

    Not sure I can make it any more simpler than that.
    Paul Magill B.com
    Bluekiwi Property Consulting
    [email protected]

  4. #4844
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    13,059

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluekiwi View Post
    You are confused by labour politicking and the fact that there was the GFC where National had to keep NZ running and not going into a depression like most countries.
    I don't think I'm confused about that.

    The figures I provided come from the RBNZ - not the Reds.

    As I see it, there is no net difference between tax and spend or borrow and spend.

    I.e. In each case, you and me get to pay the bill.

    Perhaps it's just that borrow and spend seems less immediately painful?

    As in, postponing the inevitable.

    Or as the sycophantic media would have it: kicking the can down the road.
    Try Radenbrea Studios for hand-made designer jewellery. Especially if you're looking for a great gift for your lady love.
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  5. #4845
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    622

    Default

    NZF Min wage goal $20ph Labour min wage 16.50ph .....so we can count on min wage increase, which you guessed it will add inflationary pressures...

    Now we've had one of the biggest increases in inflation in NZ land to incomes in recent times 2009-2017 during a very flat deflationary period (unlike the early 2000's where we had inflation across the board with the reserve bank increasing lending rates 9% etc to combat it..

    Like a perfect Storm its all coming together to make some very nasty times ahead ...

    -Record High household Debt to income levels
    -Low wage economy ...(we spent the money on more expessive land and not on core businesses.....but property speculation , investment rentals etc thats NZ #1 business>>>
    -Record low lending rates for an extended period (that must be forced to re-adjust to stop dollar dropping to far)
    -New pro Tax Govt ...Big spending
    -Crashing NZD value
    -Property values the vast majority of Kiwi's are ticked to the eyeballs in at Bubble highs>>10-20% correction ??


    Really National keeped the whole game going by forcing the banks to continuing to lead easy money for new builds and open door immigration policy...Lab+NZF are going see how it works to close the door by least half and add a few extra taxes

    = friends of my wife have just finished a ripping stunning 150sqm pad locally leaving them with over 700k in debt on one income which you guessed it comes is from the husband 45+ that works in the NZ property sector as stonemason ...with three young kids ....

    Other friends also 40+ age 550k in new debt to average 3 bed home .. two average incomes but also tied to the local Property sector.

    I'd say the vast bulk of new loans over the last couple of years will be much the same locally ...all get paid from the continued building boom
    which they are also part of....

    What happens when rates are forced to 6% then 7%???
    Last edited by JBM; Yesterday at 11:07 PM.

  6. #4846
    Join Date
    Mar 2015
    Location
    Brisbane Wellington Auckland
    Posts
    515

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JBM View Post
    NZF Min wage goal $20ph Labour min wage 16.50ph .....so we can count on min wage increase, which you guessed it will add inflationary pressures...

    Now we've had one of the biggest increases in inflation in NZ land to incomes in recent times 2009-2017 during a very flat deflationary period (unlike the early 2000's where we had inflation across the board with the reserve bank increasing lending rates 9% etc to combat it..

    Like a perfect Storm its all coming together to make some very nasty times ahead ...

    -Record High household Debt to income levels
    -Low wage economy ...(we spent the money on more expessive land and not on core businesses.....but property speculation , investment rentals etc thats NZ #1 business>>>
    -Record low lending rates for an extended period (that must be forced to re-adjust to stop dollar dropping to far)
    -New pro Tax Govt ...Big spending
    -Crashing NZD value
    -Property values the vast majority of Kiwi's are ticked to the eyeballs in at Bubble highs>>10-20% correction ??


    Really National keeped the whole game going by forcing the banks to continuing to lead easy money for new builds and open door immigration policy...Lab+NZF are going see how it works to close the door by least half and add a few extra taxes

    = friends of my wife have just finished a ripping stunning 150sqm pad locally leaving them with over 700k in debt on one income which you guessed it comes is from the husband 45+ that works in the NZ property sector as stonemason ...with three young kids ....

    Other friends also 40+ age 550k in new debt to average 3 bed home .. two average incomes but also tied to the local Property sector.

    I'd say the vast bulk of new loans over the last couple of years will be much the same locally ...all get paid from the continued building boom
    which they are also part of....

    What happens when rates are forced to 6% then 7%???
    With lower profitability. ..pay less tax !

  7. #4847
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    9,607

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JBM View Post
    What happens when rates are forced to 6% then 7%???
    Forced?
    What will happen is what always happens - they will struggle or go broke.
    Keeping the ponzi scheme going because people have jumped on at a bad time isn't a good reason.
    People seem to agree that the problem with house prices is that there is a shortage (for various reasons that don't matter) but don't like the idea that sorting that shortage will flatten or drop house prices.

  8. #4848
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Torbay, Auckland
    Posts
    3,792

    Default

    Winston will make Trump look good
    Paul Magill B.com
    Bluekiwi Property Consulting
    [email protected]

  9. #4849
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    622

    Default

    Yes, what will happen will happen ....the little Kiwi dollar will be at the mercy of the international traders along with where rates will go...winnie going do his best to get them offside


 

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