Originally posted by Bob Kane
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The narrative in the media at the time was that there was a shortage of housing supply. (I'm aware of only 2 people at the time warning of a property price bubble in Ireland before property prices fell significantly.) Here are a couple of stories in the media at the time which captures the groupthink and how many property owners got caught out.
1) In May 2006
"The increased numbers of migrant workers arriving in Ireland is underpinning demand for rental accommodation, while foreign nationals will account for an increasing proportion of buyers in the coming years, the report added.
First-time buyers account for 48 per cent of purchasers, followed by other owner-occupiers (24 per cent) and investors (28 per cent).
The estate agents forecast demand for new homes nationally to rise from 92,000 units in 2006 to 101,000 in 2008.
But the report warns that supply is failing to meet the required demand.
"A serious supply crisis is developing in Dublin caused by planning difficulties at local authority and An Bord Pleanála levels," the report said."
Source: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/estate-agent-sees-13-property-hike-in-2006-1.783135
2) January 2007
The shortfall of housing supply within the Dublin area is set to continue despite a record level of house construction in 2006, according to the latest AIB housing market report.
But given the apparent buildup of a Dublin supply shortfall ...
Source: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/dublin-housing-shortage-to-continue-1.802299
Here's a question for you. Is there an oversupply or shortage of housing in Auckland currently? All of the economists and market commentators on the Auckland residential property market tell you that there is currently a housing shortage (and you are free to choose to believe their forecasts or do your own calculations). Can't recall seeing any economist or property market commentator who has talked about an oversupply of housing in Auckland ...
(Unfortunately you don't have the benefit of hindsight to help you answer this - so you would be in the exact same position of a person sitting in Ireland in 2006-2007 looking at the residential property market trying to assess whether there was a housing oversupply or housing shortage situation, and facing the unknown uncertainty if property prices in the future were going to rise or fall).
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