Financial Armageddon!!

[Chris W]

That there was an oversupply of houses in Ireland.
The subsequent crash confirmed the oversupply.

That realisation of an oversupply of houses was only made with the benefit of hindsight.

The narrative in the media at the time was that there was a shortage of housing supply. (I'm aware of only 2 people at the time warning of a property price bubble in Ireland before property prices fell significantly.) Here are a couple of stories in the media at the time which captures the groupthink and how many property owners got caught out.

1) In May 2006


"The increased numbers of migrant workers arriving in Ireland is underpinning demand for rental accommodation, while foreign nationals will account for an increasing proportion of buyers in the coming years, the report added.

First-time buyers account for 48 per cent of purchasers, followed by other owner-occupiers (24 per cent) and investors (28 per cent).

The estate agents forecast demand for new homes nationally to rise from 92,000 units in 2006 to 101,000 in 2008.

But the report warns that supply is failing to meet the required demand.

"A serious supply crisis is developing in Dublin caused by planning difficulties at local authority and An Bord Pleanála levels," the report said."

Source: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/estate-agent-sees-13-property-hike-in-2006-1.783135

2) January 2007


The shortfall of housing supply within the Dublin area is set to continue despite a record level of house construction in 2006, according to the latest AIB housing market report.

But given the apparent buildup of a Dublin supply shortfall ...

Source: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/dublin-housing-shortage-to-continue-1.802299


Here's a question for you. Is there an oversupply or shortage of housing in Auckland currently? All of the economists and market commentators on the Auckland residential property market tell you that there is currently a housing shortage (and you are free to choose to believe their forecasts or do your own calculations). Can't recall seeing any economist or property market commentator who has talked about an oversupply of housing in Auckland ...

(Unfortunately you don't have the benefit of hindsight to help you answer this - so you would be in the exact same position of a person sitting in Ireland in 2006-2007 looking at the residential property market trying to assess whether there was a housing oversupply or housing shortage situation, and facing the unknown uncertainty if property prices in the future were going to rise or fall).

[Wayne]

That realisation of an oversupply of houses was only made with the benefit of hindsight.

Fair comment I think.
Many of those headlines are seen now re Auckland.
It is only when the tide goes out that you realise your togs are missing.

[eri]

they've been talking of an over-supply in chch

so it is something looked at

2017 - Christchurch's rental market is oversupplied and freshly-built terraced houses are sitting empty and unsold in the suburbs. How did the city with the real estate market decimated by the earthquakes get here? MICHAEL WRIGHT reports.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/pro...-building-boom

2018 - A flat property market in Christchurch could be because of over-supply

https://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=278778

[Bob Kane]

That realisation of an oversupply of houses was only made with the benefit of hindsight.

That's not true.
One of those guys in that video said there was an oversupply and it would end badly.
He was right.
Property experts know these things.
Economists don't.

Here's a question for you. Is there an oversupply or shortage of housing in Auckland currently? All of the economists and market commentators on the Auckland residential property market tell you that there is currently a housing shortage (and you are free to choose to believe their forecasts or do your own calculations). Can't recall seeing any economist or property market commentator who has talked about an oversupply of housing in Auckland ...

That's an easy question to answer which reveals your poor thinking on the matter.
There is a shortage of housing in Auckland.

[Chris W]

That's not true.
One of those guys in that video said there was an oversupply and it would end badly.
He was right.
Property experts know these things.
Economists don't.

The video was a clip from a programme of two people discussing the future of property prices in Ireland, so they had one person on each side of the debate - one for property prices being stable, the other arguing that property prices were going to fall.

FYI, Morgan Kelly was one of the two people warning about high property prices in Ireland publicly in the media before the property price crash. He was labeled a doomsayer and scaremonger leading up to the property price bubble in Ireland, and provided an opposing opinion to the overwhelming majority of opinion on the direction of future property prices in Ireland.

"The Economist magazine used those indicators to warn about property bubbles around the world early on. In 2002, it stated that the Irish housing market had been “displaying bubble-like symptoms in recent years”, and, in 2003, it calculated that Ireland’s property market was overvalued by 42% relative to the average of the previous three decades. In Ireland, the economists David McWilliams and Morgan Kelly identified the problem and warned about it early on.

However, overwhelmingly, the Irish analysts and institutions, including the media, maintained that there was no bubble and that the boom would eventually end in a soft landing. Indeed, there is a clear discrepancy between coverage of the housing bubble before and after it burst. Before 2008, the media tended to largely ignore it, and it was only months after it started deflating that reality had to be faced. Once the housing market collapsed, the media simply could not ignore its downwards trajectory, hence the increased coverage."

Source: Report of the Joint Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

One of those guys in that video said there was an oversupply and it would end badly.

In the video link at 8;50, Morgan Kelly stated that there were over quarter of a million empty units (that is 14% of the housing stock in Ireland in 2006). He never mentioned the word "oversupply".

For sake of comparison, in 2018, NZ had 191,646 empty units (10.3% of housing stock in NZ, lower than 2013 level of 10.6%) - https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...-auckland-just

That's an easy question to answer
There is a shortage of housing in Auckland.

Just to clarify that we're talking about the same thing and not at cross purposes - are you referring to a shortage of housing in Auckland based on
1) underlying demand and underlying supply or
2) effective demand and effective supply?

How many more houses do you believe there needs to be built in Auckland? And what are your underlying assumptions in your calculations regarding
1) population (not sure if you are using the current population in Auckland or you are using future population projections for Auckland) and
2) people per household

[flyernzl]

If you are talking about the "empty units" identified in the 2018 census, then this figure is a false indicator of over/under supply.
If you happened to be away from home (on holiday, in hospital, away for work) on that particular evening the census was taken then your home was considered to be an "empty unit".
Similarly, if you had a rental that was being renovated between tenants at that time, that was also an "empty unit" even if you had a queue of applicants for the tenancy.

[Chris W]

If you are talking about the "empty units" identified in the 2018 census, then this figure is a false indicator of over/under supply.
If you happened to be away from home (on holiday, in hospital, away for work) on that particular evening the census was taken then your home was considered to be an "empty unit".
Similarly, if you had a rental that was being renovated between tenants at that time, that was also an "empty unit" even if you had a queue of applicants for the tenancy.

Agree with you that the number of unoccupied units is an incorrect indicator of a housing shortage or housing surplus. That is the reason for highlighting that Morgan Kelly never used the word "oversupply" in his comments.

The unoccupied units is merely used to provide a comparison of the unoccupied houses relative to the housing stock for Ireland in 2006, and the NZ situation currently.

[eri]

back to the question

is there possibly an over-supply of housing in auckland

should the number of new builds be reduced?

i think not

[Bob Kane]

Just to clarify that we're talking about the same thing and not at cross purposes - are you referring to a shortage of housing in Auckland based on
1) underlying demand and underlying supply or
2) effective demand and effective supply?

How many more houses do you believe there needs to be built in Auckland? And what are your underlying assumptions in your calculations regarding
1) population (not sure if you are using the current population in Auckland or you are using future population projections for Auckland) and
2) people per household

I can't prove the actual number of houses that need to be built.
I don't need an actual number to tell me that there is a shortage.
Just looking at the sale prices and rents that are being achieved is all you need to know there's a shortage.
This is what property people use to plan their moves.
As an example, I expect you to argue that the latest dip in sale prices should indicate there's an over supply of houses?
That would be normal for non-property people.

[artemis]

back to the question

is there possibly an over-supply of housing in auckland

should the number of new builds be reduced?

i think not

About this time last year Stuff reported that Pinehill and Albany Heights had an oversupply of new builds. Maybe they followed the Kiwibuild plan - wrong location, wrong price.

[chook]

Where do people think we are on the property clock?

We are at 2 PM, watch out!

[Perry]

Tick, tick, tick goes the bloodsuckers.

Don't worry - be happy.

Taxcindarella and Labour will womanually adjust the clock to save us all.

[Keys]

My mouth is hurting.

2.30

[OnTheMove]

I looked at the Irish house price crash first hand -in Ireland
(see:https://www.propertytalk.com/forum/s...andlord/page58)

The prime cause was too many houses. Thus developers could not find buyers, so could not repay their loans, and away they went.

How long here before we have a housing surplus?

Personally I think we are already seeing it.

With a down turn in median house price, now just bobbing up and down (indecisive market).

Kiwi homes being a total failure.

People cannot afford to buy homes in Auckland, our price to income ratio is absurd beyond greedy, just absurd.

House sales figures significantly different to 2017, particularly total time a property sits on the market.

Personal debt 150%+ of our very single big player and very fragile GDP.

Im not buying into we will crash like Ireland 2006, although it is possible. I think we have already lost 10%, if an international economic crisis occurs I think we will lose another 20%, but in reality, in 2017 I think we were 40% over priced. So I then think a long slow flat line for 10 years will occur. Not a guru or financial advice but thats what I can see occuring IF things go that route.

What Im more interested in is when will the down turn and slowing market hit the rest of NZ, prices in Whakatane asking $900k etc, come on. I mean I love the place but the rest of NZ now seems to be out pricing Auckland.

[Perry]

Are You An Econ-o-Mist?

You do need to be a bit more detailed and specific.

Kiwi homes being a total failure.

Did you mean kiwibuild? If so, I doubt anyone disagrees.

Personal debt 150%+ of our very single big player and very fragile GDP.

What do you mean / refer to by that comment? Please be detailed and specific. (E.g. Who/what is a "big player?")

I think we have already lost 10%, if an international economic crisis occurs I think we will lose another 20%, but in reality, in 2017 I think we were 40% over priced.

What are you referring to, with those comments?

What Im more interested in is when will the down turn and slowing market hit the rest of NZ, prices in Whakatane asking $900k etc, come on. I mean I love the place but the rest of NZ now seems to be out pricing Auckland.

What down turn? Down turn in what? What difference does (whatever it is) make to residential rental incomes?