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  1. #5241
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    10,429

    Default

    Perry - I'm sure I saw you predict that Trump wouldn't enter into a deal with China.

  2. #5242
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    14,984

    Default

    Oh? Where? When?
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  3. #5243
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    14,984

    Default July 2017 Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by watchful View Post
    Changing market and my prediction is quick Asian withdrawal at any price in the next 6 months. Lots of supply soon with no backing from banks to lend to investors unless prices drop which banks will not stomach. A standoff until banks come under pressure then all bad.
    That six month period would be the latter half of 2017.

    How's it looking, folks?

    Another yawn?
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  4. #5244
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    8,354

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by eri View Post
    tricky across the ditch

    Sydney and Melbourne were down 1.3 per cent and 1.6 per cent respectively over the month,

    bringing their rolling quarterly falls to 4.5 per cent and 4 per cent

    and annual falls to 9.7 per cent and 8.3 per cent.


    The NSW and Victorian capitals are now 12.3 per cent and 8.7 per cent down from their respective peaks in July and November 2017

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12200033
    It's still nothing eri.

    A 100% increase over a number of years, followed by a 10% fall doesn't really hurt anyone. It's when it's 30% that it means anything.
    Squadly dinky do!

  5. #5245
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Posts
    7,625

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Davo36 View Post
    It's still nothing eri.

    A 100% increase over a number of years, followed by a 10% fall doesn't really hurt anyone. It's when it's 30% that it means anything.
    the thing with deflationary spirals starting on over-inflated values

    is they tend to keep falling until the real value is reached

    many sydney buyers will keep looking but are in no hurry to sign

    as tomorrow a better deal will probably appear

    not only will this mean agents working harder for less money

    but the whole construction sector will slow if buyers aren't lining up for new houses

    a slowing housing sector flows on to the entire economy....

    is it a 10% fall that eventually trips an economy into recession

    20%, 30%?

    not sure anyone knows

    but if you've bought in the last few years

    it can't be fun watching the deposit you worked for years to build up

    disappear as your new home sinks in value to the mortgage cost

    in Ak prices seem to have only fallen a 2?%

    but sales have fallen 18%...

    personally i don't think nz prices can fall too far

    as we are so crap at building new houses to a budget

    Last edited by eri; 17-03-2019 at 05:23 PM.
    have you defeated them?
    your demons

  6. #5246
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    8,354

    Default

    Well I don't think there's a supply problem. Even with the massive immigration numbers.

    I think it was more about foreign speculation (read money laundering) coupled with super low interest rates. But the former has stopped now, and the interest rates don't seem to be heading much lower just now.

    So I think prices COULD fall fairly far, if the government and RBNZ would let them, but they won't.

    They'll come to the rescue with a lower OCR, relaxed lending rules, bailouts for banks etc. etc.

    And they'll do it because no one wants a house price crash during their term in office - because they will be out come the next election.

    But hey, all just guesses of course.
    Squadly dinky do!

  7. #5247
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    8,354

    Default

    Just saw this, very interesting, it seems Nigel Farge, some large hedge funds and polling companies may have worked together to make an (illegal - insider trading) killing on shorting the pound on Brexit voting day:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ht40yrt3VrY
    Squadly dinky do!

  8. #5248

    Default

    NZ, like many markets, is exposed to interest rates quite a lot and while it hurts some that servicing criteria are so much tighter it is honestly not the worst thing in the world.
    Free online Property Investment Course from iFindProperty, a residential investment property agency.

  9. #5249
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    287

    Default

    Davo36,

    You might find this interesting also then.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEzsfPmh894

  10. #5250
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    8,354

    Default

    So many crooks! All so intensely focused on making money they'll do anything.

    The banks, the mortgage brokers, the ratings companies, the auditors, the stockbrokers. They're all guilty, and it will still be going on.
    Squadly dinky do!


 

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