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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Vienna, Austria
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    2,662

    Default Gold: 1st quarter stats

    I know this isn't property related but I recall some saying you should have a little gold put away. The latest industry stats are interesting for any gold bugs out there:
    Although in value terms gold rose 20% the actual demand in tonnage terms dropped 16% ( year on year) this is the lowest in 5 years ( I believe thats when the current run started!) Jewellery demand for gold declined 21% ( year on year) thats the lowest since 1993. Supply went up 6%. I'm guessing the gold price has outstripped demand......probably because the price has just got out of range of the normal physical buyers

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    3,936

    Default

    That is interesting

  3. #3
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Manukau Auckland
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    1,049

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Austrokiwi View Post
    I know this isn't property related but I recall some saying you should have a little gold put away. The latest industry stats are interesting for any gold bugs out there:
    Although in value terms gold rose 20% the actual demand in tonnage terms dropped 16% ( year on year) this is the lowest in 5 years ( I believe thats when the current run started!) Jewellery demand for gold declined 21% ( year on year) thats the lowest since 1993. Supply went up 6%. I'm guessing the gold price has outstripped demand......probably because the price has just got out of range of the normal physical buyers
    When you say demand dropped...are you referring to consumer demand for Jewerly??

    Investment demand for gold is WAY bigger than jewerly demand as people around the world look to protect their assets against inflation.

    Gold will continue to rise for the next few years until the world major governments get serious about tackling inflation (i.e USA).

    I will openly predict Gold will be $1,200 - $1,300 USD an ounce by 2008 Dec.

    Gold is still cheap today. The Gold/Oil ratio is at historic lows. Presently it takes 7 barrels of oil to buy an ounce of gold. Historically the number has bounced between 10 - 15 barrels of oil to buy an ounce of gold.

    Something to think about.

    Shane Dennison

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Vienna, Austria
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Shane D View Post
    When you say demand dropped...are you referring to consumer demand for Jewerly??

    I will openly predict Gold will be $1,200 - $1,300 USD an ounce by 2008 Dec.

    Gold is still cheap today. The Gold/Oil ratio is at historic lows. Presently it takes 7 barrels of oil to buy an ounce of gold. Historically the number has bounced between 10 - 15 barrels of oil to buy an ounce of gold.

    Something to think about.

    Shane Dennison
    Sorry I should have stated where the stats came from. The statistics I quoted come from the World Gold Councils 1st quarter 2008 report. The tonnage I referred to is the total world wide purchasing of physical gold, So while the dollar value of gold investment has gone up the actually amount of physical gold sold has dropped. I have been an investor in physical gold and I started in 2002/2003.....I believe the initial gold increases that started in 2003 were deserved and were catch up on the previous 2 decades doldrums. This year I have become distinctly nervous and have cashed in some of my holdings. The reason being the creation of Gold Based ETFs in the states created a surge in prices, that coincided with the surge in commodities. The fed dropping interest rates also fed gold purchasing, over the same time. I believed the same as you till about February this year when the prices no longer started to make sense to me (sorry I can't explain why: Take it as personal gut feeling) The stats I quoted are the first I have seen that match's my current uncomfortable feeling about gold. Once the federal reserve starts to raise interest rates, and the ECB starts to drop them ( both will happen this year) I would expect that considerable selling pressure will go onto gold.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Posts
    1,656

    Default

    How many 1kg blocks of tasty cheese has it historically taken to buy an ounce of gold, cos' 10 bucks says it used to be less than it is today.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Vienna, Austria
    Posts
    2,662

    Default

    Forgot to add The Jewelery stats refers to purchasing of physical gold by Jewelery manufacturers

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Vienna, Austria
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    2,662

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by k1w1 View Post
    How many 1kg blocks of tasty cheese has it historically taken to buy an ounce of gold, cos' 10 bucks says it used to be less than it is today.

    Tell me the 1KG price of Cheese in 2004 and today and I'll answer you other wise you can calculate it your self. Gold in Dec 2004 in NZ$ was $650 ( ignoring daily fluctuations) this week Gold has been floating around NZ$1170-NZ$1189

  8. #8
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Manukau Auckland
    Posts
    1,049

    Default blocks of cheese

    Quote Originally Posted by Austrokiwi View Post
    Tell me the 1KG price of Cheese in 2004 and today and I'll answer you other wise you can calculate it your self. Gold in Dec 2004 in NZ$ was $650 ( ignoring daily fluctuations) this week Gold has been floating around NZ$1170-NZ$1189
    I think k1w1 may be referring to (taking the mickey out of) a comment today by John Key about proposed government tax cuts (or lack of tax cuts).

    sorry I can't give a link to the NZ Herald story as I don't have the required # of posts that allows me to post links.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
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    Vienna, Austria
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    Default

    Cheers I read that Article this morning while I was having my breakfast Coffee. I think just from the change in gold prices K1W1 is right the increase in a one K block is probably far less than the increase in an oz of gold.............but Gold can come down in price far faster than a block of cheese!!

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Christchurch, New Zealand
    Posts
    1,125

    Default

    Bill,
    WGC & Nadler: enemy combatants
    There used to be a guy in the town where I grew up who seemed decent enough, but had this one incredibly annoying habit. He would cheerfully greet you, then immediately bust his butt to tell you about all of the sorrow and misery of the local town folk. He would eagerly inform you of who contracted cancer, or which wife left her husband, or whose nephew just got killed in a fatal auto accident. I think he enjoyed being the bearer of bad news. It seemed the worse the tragedy the happier he was to tell you. After thoroughly depressing you he would then depart with some inane remark about the weather. As I got older I learned to avoid him. I didn't want to know the sorrow and misery of people I barely knew. I think that just about sums up what Jon Nadler is all about. He cheerfully greets you, delivers depressing gold news, then leaves you with his trite "happy trading".

    The World Gold Council once again shoots the gold industry in the foot http://www.commodityonline.com/news/...ls.php?id=8534
    and Jon Nadler is ecstatic. He gleefully reports on their amazing load of garbage. It is beyond comprehension how people (alleging to be) representing gold's interest do everything in their power to discredit gold. This is no accident, and time will be the ultimate judge of their fraudulent propaganda. The WGC and Nadler seem to be talking up a SHORT position in gold, not a long position. There is no way you would say these idiot things if you were long gold, or heavily invested. Once again the silence from the mines who support the WGC is deafening. Anybody invested in these mines should be flabbergasted. Thank God I'm not invested in them.

    GFMS, WGC, CPM Group, Virtual Metals, Jon Nadler, and Jeffrey Christian are enemy combatants; traitors to the cause of free gold. They are more insidious than mainstream media because they cloak as pro-gold organizations. Unfortunately for them the economic winds are shifting. It's getting harder to deny the conspiracy to hide inflation, and suppress gold. Now even Paul Farrel of CBS MarketWatch says government statistics and data are nothing more than one big fraud, meant to mask true inflation and hide how terrible the economy truly is. Sound familiar?

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/governments-numbers-racket-about-blow/story.aspx?guid=%7BF91A0843%2D69B4%2D4C0C%2D92CE%2 DB835D9907945%7D&dist=TNMostRead

    Better order a tin foil hat for Paul Farrel. Pretty soon Nadler is going to have to pass out a couple million of them. So many reasons for Jon to slink away, so little time. If my hometown is any indication people will someday walk 3 blocks out of their way to avoid him.
    James Mc


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

    --------------------

    Beware the misinformation peddled by those who wish to see gold stay down.

    I think there's a good chance that Shane will be proved right.
    If not, it won't take much longer.

    Gold & silver are retracing the recent dip very nicely. But expect this sort of thing:




    I think you ought to read this:

    James Turk on Gold: The Ultimate Inflation and Catastrophe Hedge
    May 21, 2008
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/7821...ge?source=feed

    Steve


 

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