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  1. #11
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    Jan 2005
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    1,129

    Default

    Good point, Steve.

  2. #12
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    North Shore, Auckland
    Posts
    1,079

    Default

    a closely related poll on www.nzherald.co.nz:

    http://tinyurl.com/64aoyt

  3. #13
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Christchurch, New Zealand
    Posts
    1,125

    Default

    I've just read these two articles.
    If you hate gold, or want to ignore the lessons that history has to teach, then you will not read them, or reject the message they offer.

    Gold Is Money - Deal with It!
    [Remarks by Robert K. Landis to the Association of Mining Analysts, London, England, October 2, 2003]
    http://www.goldensextant.com/LandisAMA.html

    The Once and Future Money
    http://www.goldensextant.com/LLCPostings4.html



    Yikes !

  4. #14
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Christchurch, New Zealand
    Posts
    1,125

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by 67910241 View Post
    That's an absolute classic

    It reminds me of the people in the US withdrawing their money from one bank, just to put it into another.
    "Where else can we put it" they say.

    That's how the message of gold/silver has been removed from all consciousness. Amazing.

    (Thanks for posting about it )

  5. #15
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Christchurch, New Zealand
    Posts
    1,125

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by outspoken View Post
    Good old 2nd ammendment (I think?) stuff! I like it!
    As for my Garden of Eden sentiment, I read one of your links and agree.
    We're hardly at a World Armageddon event, or total World financial melt-down stage. Well, not yet anyway that I know about.
    It's not long ago I used to think the sky was blue, the sun was shining, and I had no thoughts of the possibility of the sky falling.
    The more I read, the more naive I think I was

    This one got me thinking (my red curve):



    It's Always Darkest Before the Dawn........................................of a Depression
    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1216926180.php

    This is not just a subprime mortgage crisis; this is the crisis of an entire subprime financial system: losses are spreading from subprime to near prime and prime mortgages; to commercial real estate; to unsecured consumer credit (credit cards, student loans, auto loans); to leveraged loans that financed reckless debt-laden LBOs; to muni bonds that will go bust as hundred of municipalities will go bust; to industrial and commercial loans; to corporate bonds whose default rate will jump from close to 0% to over 10%; to CDSs where $62 trillion of nominal protection sits on top an outstanding stock of only $6 trillion of bonds and where counterparty risk - and the collapse of many counterparties - will lead to a systemic collapse of this market.
    .
    .
    .
    Yes, not only are we are witnessing the asymptotic approach of the marginal effect of debt, but we are now seeing the dwindling market impact US Government market interventions are having. In a commentary just written by Ron Paul, titled "The Crisis is Upon Us," he writes, "There are reasons to believe this coming crisis is different and bigger than any the world has ever experienced." He is largely dismissed as a quack by the mainstream for being "Chicken-Little" and for not being as polished as our current crop of focus-group-driven politicians. He subscribes o an economic philosophy not taught in our American schools called Austrian economics. But after the final crisis plays itself out, the mantra "We are all Keynesians now," will be replaced by "We are all Austrians now." Referring to the chart below, also provided by Barry Bannister, we see the effects of 35 years of ultra-expansionary monetary policies:
    That and the two recent articles I've read make me wonder whether we are getting rather close......

  6. #16
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Christchurch, New Zealand
    Posts
    1,125

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by tricky View Post
    If you need guns to protect your gold then it's worthless.
    Gold is only valuable when things are running smoothly.
    Which defeats the purpose of holding gold?

    An idle question which just occurred to me:
    Is the price of gold manipulated?
    Can the 'evil empire' control the price?
    If so, isn't it risky to hold gold?
    " Gold is only valuable when things are running smoothly." - I don't think that tallies with history. In fact I think the opposite is true.

    " Which defeats the purpose of holding gold?" - which obviously justifies it at certain times.

    " Is the price of gold manipulated?" - it sure is. If you accept/agree with that, then you must ask yourself why.

    " Can the 'evil empire' control the price?" - they have done. It was fixed at $35/oz for a while, before they released it, and then it shot up towards its market value. I'm not sure they are "evil". The 2nd article I just posted suggests they are just misguided. Even someone with high ideals can make a mess of things.

    " If so, isn't it risky to hold gold?" - IMO there is risk in everything. The question I ask in reply is "Isn't it risky having your wealth 'stored' in a fiat currency as a liability of a bank".

    After all, when you put your hard-earned money in a bank, it's not in a box somewhere is it. They lend it to someone else. Your asset, their liability, all dependant upon the counter-party risk associated with the person who ended up with it, and their ability to repay it.
    If that's someone with a 100% mortgage, will they be capable of repaying it ?

    IMO the requirement of any safe haven is the exclusion of counter-party risk. That excludes many things, including a house with a mortgage, because you suffer the risk of losing your job, or going into negative equity.

    Possible safe havens:
    1. Food
    2. 100% owned property
    3. Gold/silver (not ETFs etc)
    4. Other physical assets (antiques, jewellery etc )

  7. #17
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Posts
    1,129

    Default

    Good response, Steve.
    Thanks.

  8. #18
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    North Shore, Auckland
    Posts
    1,079

    Default Dodgy Regression Warning

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Netwriter View Post

    This one got me thinking (my red curve):




    That and the two recent articles I've read make me wonder whether we are getting rather close......
    Steve!

    I normally like your graphs, but this one I found extremely problematic.

    What makes you confident your underlying trend line, as approximated by the regression curve, is linear (and must hit the bottom in 2015) and not negative Exponential (will keep diminishing but never ever hit Y = 0)?

    If I had to use my intuition, I'd find the latter far easier to swallow.

    Please justify your choice!

  9. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Wellington NZ
    Posts
    1,802

    Default Tricky the flip flopper

    Amazing how most have forgotten or have not been taught the value of gold/silver

    What a joke though Tricky...heres your scribble dribble

    https://www.propertytalk.com/forum/sh...ht=gold&page=3

    Thats from last month! Scroll along a couple of pages and check out your contribution dribble...

    Tricky's exact words about the same subject!

    "Badger just likes doing the 'Doom Dance'.
    There's no intelligence inside the suit."

    With the same kind of information presented in the same way!

    How strange...




  10. #20
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Christchurch, New Zealand
    Posts
    1,125

    Default

    I normally like your graphs
    - that's the good news

    Can I claim the 5th ?

    Actually it's not my graph. I just added the red bit, because the original article IMO didn't make it clear enough that the actual line hit the x-axis sooner than the trend line. I wanted to make the point that with swings above and below, it could well hit it earlier.

    It looks like you need to take it up with "The chart below, provided to me by Barry Bannister, clearly illustrates the countdown to hyperinflation.".

    I must admit I haven't put that much thought into it.
    If you are happy to download a 100MB video, this makes a similar point:

    The Crash -- Coming Financial Collapse of America (100MB)
    http://video.google.ca/videoplay?doc...LJDQ-wHm2MWQCA
    Download this:
    http://vp.video.google.com/videodown...UO1UgI-XkyKj6Q

    I don't claim it's that good, but it makes an important point.

    Now, I don't claim more than 5 seconds thought put into this, but I'd have made exactly the opposite argument.
    If you replace the US economy with a household with income and expenses and interest on debt to pay, initially the debt rises linearly, but when the lenders start getting worried, don't the debt repayments rise, hastening your inevitable failure to repay the debt ?

    I'll try and look into this more.
    Last edited by Steve Netwriter; 29-07-2008 at 05:47 PM.


 

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