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  1. #1721
    Join Date
    Sep 2008


    wow, that was a plunge overnight

    from 1220 to 1150

    has recovered a little to 1160 now but it will take a few days to sort out where it will go from here

    myself, i would put the drop down to usa jobless data just out that showed that unemployment dropped from 10.2 - 10%

    haven't checked the us$ yet but presumably that should be rising off recent lows now
    have you defeated them?
    your demons

  2. #1722
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Vienna, Austria

    Default History is interesting (part 1).

    First: At this time I am not making any parallels between 1980and now in this post. I was doing some other research in the London Times Archive and found the two following articles from January 1980. Posting both makes for a long post but it is interesting to see the change that can happen in a three day period. I am posting in two parts. There may be typos in the articles as they have been produced from the original using OCR software:

    First Article

    The Times | January 21, 1980
    Frank Vogl in- Washington

    Record-breaking gold price- keeps the experts guessing
    Record-breaking gold price keeps the experts guessing Latest developments in bullion unrelated to usual market considerations None of South Africa's foremost gold experts suspected that the 'bullion price 'would reach $600 an ounce, let alone .more than $800. In November I spent some time in South Africa with executives of. the mining houses and economists’ at the Chamber of Mines and all the talk -was of -a price range of $280 to $400. These experts, like so many others, based 'their calculations on 'economic ' considerations, but what has been happening in.the markets recently has nothing to do 'with inflation, economic. growth, or interest rate developments. Mr James Sinclair, Head of' James Sinclair and Company, a New York investment advisory firm; has long paid consider- able attention to emotional and political factors in weighing the 'prospects for gold. Last summer he became extremely bullish as he watched the political developments in the Middle East. On September 13 Mr Sinclair wrote in his- weekly newsletter that "the long discussed but insubstantial supposition that one day flight capital would make of bullion an alternative currency, may materialize. The number attached to gold's valuation becomes irrelevant. Two hundred was meaningless, 300 at present is irrelevant and 400 may join their ranks. If- this is indeed a major market change, then the highest price objective-in the 900 level-is not impossible." Now Mr Sinclair' believes that. events in Iran and, Afghanistan; as well as mounting talk of possible moves by the Soviet Union over the borders of -Pakistan and Turkey,- have forced political and financial leaders in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and in the United. Arab Emirates, to review their own holdings.-

    Mr .Sinclair believes these leaders may have decided that their best strategy is to "get as much money as possible as quickly as possible, get it diversified internationally (with one way being by converting some dollar holdings into gold) and be prepared to visit London or Toronto on a moment’s notice". Mr Sinclair says all this means that the flight of capital in the Mid East is producing today's head- lines the (gold) price will .ebb and .flow, but don't dis count'the possibility of a gold price in, four figures in 1980 ". If sufficient participants in the gold markets believe the same irrespective of the decisions of Middle East leaders, the demand for gold will probably be sufficient to support prices at present and even higher levels. It appears that wealthy investors in Europe and the United States are banking on the oil exporting countries putting some percentage of their 1980 estimated payments surplus of as much as $90,000m into gold. A switch by the key surplus oil exporting nations of just a small proportion of their total reserves into gold could have a dramatic effect in a market that, for the time being at least, is supported by a relatively modest amount of bullion supply. South-Africa can do little in the near future to boost annual output above 730 tons, the Soviet Union has little incentive to increase its sales, the United States Treasury has no plans to sell large numbers of its gold bars, and so far few investors seem willing to sell their holdings. Sellers will eventually surface, profit-taking will become substantial and, after a volatile period, the gold price may stabilize, but it is impossible to guess, now that the price seems unrelated to considerations of inflation, - interest rates and recession, at just what level profit-taking will start. There is no way to estimate a reasonable price range for gold- now. The shortage of sellers in the gold markets is so great that even modest orders can produce immense price jumps. Reliable market sources point out that last week the price of gold rose by $77 an ounce at one point in the New York market on a buy order of no more than $80m.
    The mission of any business enterprise should include the aim to develop economic conditions rather than simply react to them.

  3. #1723
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Vienna, Austria

    Default HIstory is interesting (part 2)

    The second article issued three days after the previous

    The Times | January 23, 1980

    Gold price plummets to close at $690 By Caroline Atkinson

    In a dramatic reversal on the world's bullion markets yester- day the gold price plummeted through the $300 and then the $700 an ounce levels. In London gold finally dropped by a record $135 to close at S690. The scramble to get out of the metal was as frenzied yesterday as the rush in the opposite direction last -week. Silver crashed down too, losing nearly 30 per cent of its value in one day. Other metals which had followed the gold and silver prices upwards dropped sharply in the wake of the collapsing gold price. Gold has broken all records this year. Bullion markets have seen the largest daily rises to the highest prices, followed yesterday by the most dramatic fall. Some dealers maintained that the metal could still recover after its battering. How ever yesterday's plunge in the price was more widely heralded as the bursting of a speculative bubble. In New York the market was -in turmoil. In less than 24 hours the price of gold fell by almost $200 an ounce, as the market reacted to rumors and reports. This is the thinnest market you have ever seen ", said one dealer. The fall was apparently triggered off by new restrictions on bullion trading in New York and Germany. However, there were clearly many people waiting for the signal to sell. The unprecedented leap in the price this year had left the market very vulnerable to fears of a sharp fall. Profit-taking, mainly from Europe, set in yesterday morning- and the effect snowballed. At one point on Thursday gold reached $875 an ounce in New York, where yesterday it dived to $670 and finished the day at S682 an ounce. Three weeks ago the price was only $520 an ounce. Gold shares faired even worse. Traders were quick to mark down their prices and sharp losses were recorded. In New York the trading in the gold market was reportedly very thin, so that quite modest buy or sell orders could pro- duce formidable price changes. Dealers noted that le4ding in- situations, which had been active .bullion buyers last week, did not- appear to be in the market yesterday. Paradoxically. the plunge on the gold market could prove more of a worry to the world's money authorities than its rise. Middle East investors may have been buying gold in preference. to dollars in recent days. If they now decide to switch out of gold and dollars into other, currencies the foreign exchange 'markets could become chaotic.' Comments. from Mr .,Paul Volcker, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, made the markets think that the. United. States -was planning -large sales of gold in the -near future. However his, remarks were probably misinterpreted. Silver prices crashed on the commodity exchange. in New. York yesterday on the first full day of trading since the authorities imposed a. ban on any new speculative buying. - The Chicago Board of Trade .which operates a much smaller silver market delayed, its 'opening to review the New -York measures, it too has imposed' additional restrictions, banning. new positions in the January, February and March-positions, requiring traders to liquidate their February' holdings gradually, to prevent a late squeeze developing: These moves - however. are slightly less drastic than those in New York because Chicago does not have ' the order, imbalance- which threatens to destroy the News York market. As they struggled to cope with the regulations yesterday, dealers were split on what was more damaging to the market- the, threat that ;those holding contracts would demand delivery, or the danger that the Some would lose business permanently to the less restricted market in London. Silver and copper prices both followed the trend in gold and retreated. At the afternoon close copper cash wire bars were $105 down at $1,213.50 per tonne and three months was $92.50 down at $1,220. At the morning silver bullion fixing " spot" was. down 315.80p a troy ounce to 1,821.60p and three months was 313.95p down to 1.840p. In the London Metal Exchange silver lost 480p to 1,610p and three months was 497.50p down to 1,610p. The question now worrying gold mine managemi2etits and investors must be whether the gold price fall* will upset development plains. Gold mines especially, but other precious metal mines also, are highly geared to the metal price. At the very high prices prevailing over the last few days as much as 25 years extra possible production had been added Gold price plummets to close at $690
    The mission of any business enterprise should include the aim to develop economic conditions rather than simply react to them.

  4. #1724


    Quote Originally Posted by Austrokiwi View Post
    The second article issued three days after the previous
    Let me counter with this long article

    Matterhorn Asset Management

    Wealth Preservation and Investment in Gold


    by Egon von Greyerz – Matterhorn Asset Management

    This month we will discuss the illusion of gold going up. We will examine the destiny of the dollar and why it will reach its intrinsic value of zero. We will also demonstrate why money printing will accelerate rapidly in the next 12-24 months.
    Paper Money Collapsing against Gold

    The problem with paper money is that governments can create unlimited amounts. This is what they have done throughout history and especially in the last 100 years and which has led to the total destruction of most currencies. Most people don’t even understand that their government makes their money worthless. Money printing gives them the illusion of being richer whilst all they have are pieces of paper with more zeros on them. But there is one currency that governments can’t print which is gold. Gold has been real money for almost 5,000 years and it is the only currency that has survived throughout history. Gold can’t be printed and no government controls it. Therefore gold will, over time, always reveal governments’ fraudulent actions in creating money out of thin air. And this is what we are experiencing currently. Gold is not going up. Instead gold is doing what it has always done, namely maintaining its value and purchasing power.
    What we are seeing currently is the total annihilation of paper money whether it is Dollars, Pounds or Euros etc. The chart below shows the US dollar against gold. In the last 10 years the dollar has declined by 79% against gold. Most currencies have declined by similar percentages. So it is an illusion to believe that gold is going up when it is the value of paper money that is going down. All gold is doing is to reflect the virtually limitless printing of paper currencies. Since gold can’t be printed, it is the only honest currency that exists. This is why many governments don’t like gold increasing in value against their paper money since it exposes their total incompetence in running their country’s economy.
    The chart above shows how the purchasing power of the dollar has declined in real money – gold – in the last 10 years. And if we take the period from 1909 to 2009 it shows the total destruction of paper money. In 1909, $1,000 bought 50 ounces of gold. Today it buys 0.83 ounces. This means that in the last 100 years the dollar has declined by 98.3% against gold. So in real money terms the dollar is now only worth 1.7% of what it was worth a century ago. Thus, the US government (as well as most other governments) has totally destroyed the value of real money by issuing unlimited amounts of paper money and in the next few years they will also kill off the remaining 1.7% of value to make the paper dollar reach its intrinsic value of zero. The chart below reflects various currencies fall against the dollar since from 1900 to 2004.

    To talk about gold being over-extended at these levels is in our view absolute nonsense. As we will discuss later, money printing can only accelerate in the coming months and years. And when worthless pieces of paper are printed, gold will always reveal such a fraud by maintaining its value against the ever increasing supply of paper called “money”.
    The Real Move in Gold is Still to Come

    In our view we have not seen the real move in gold yet although we have gone from $250 to $1,226. The reasons are many:
    • Money printing will accelerate as government deficits increase and problems in the financial system re-emerge.
    • There is a high risk of default of major financial institutions or sovereign states with unpredictable consequences for the world economy.
    • The fourfold increase in gold since 1999 has taken place without the participation of most investors. It has so far been a stealth market. But this will soon change and there is likely to be a major “gold rush” in the next couple of years.
    • The average fund manager, pension fund manager, asset manager or individual investor has virtually no exposure to gold today but in the next couple of years they will all invest in gold.
    • The gold market will soon become primarily a physical market because no one will trust paper gold or quasi physical gold such as Comex, ETF’s or unallocated gold. Nor will the market trust governments many of which might have lent out most of their gold. The last audit of the gold in Fort Knox was in 1953!
    • Gold production is going down every year and is currently only $90 billion p.a. There will not be sufficient physical gold at current prices to satisfy increased demand.
    • There is only $900 billion of physical gold held privately for investment purposes. This is circa 0.7% of world financial assets. A mere doubling of the allocation to gold, which is likely, would make the gold price surge. See chart below.
    • Central banks are now net buyers of gold. Many countries which are underweight in gold such as China, India, Russia, Japan, Singapore Brazil, Korea and many more are major buyers of gold. This means that gold will be underwritten by several sovereign countries for many years to come. Central banks are not fickle investors and a policy decision to increase their gold holdings is unlikely to be reversed for a very long time.
    • Although difficult to predict, the geopolitical risk in the next few years is substantial. Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Middle East, Israel, acts of terrorism in the West etc. The preceding list is potentially explosive and the likelihood that something will happen in one these areas is very high. This would have a major effect on the gold price.
    Gold has outperformed most stockmarkets

    In the last ten years the Dow Jones has declined against gold by 80%. The graph below shows gold expressed in local currencies against the Nikkei, Dax, FTSE and S&P in the last 10 years (Nov 1999 – Nov 2009). For example gold in yen has appreciated by 233% whilst the Nikkei has fallen by 46%. The graph shows how badly most stockmarkets have performed measured in “real money” i.e. gold.

    The Precious Metals market is minuscule

    The graph below shows how small the gold and silver industries and markets are in relation to major US corporations and to total world financial assets. The market capitalisation of the silver industry is only $ 9 billion and of the gold industry $ 200 B whilst Microsoft is valued at $250 B and Exxon 350 B.
    Both the silver and gold industries as well as the physical markets are so small that any increase in demand is likely to drive prices very substantially higher.

    Quantitative Incr-easing

    Governments and especially the US are making noises that money printing will soon cease. This statement is as credible as their statement about “a strong dollar policy”. Let us be very clear; just as there is no chance whatsoever that they actually want a stronger dollar or that the dollar can go up. There is even less of a chance that money printing or Quantitative Easing will be withdrawn. Instead we will have what we call QI – Quantitative Incr-easing. The Fed will in the next couple of years do what Helicopter Bernanke always promised; i.e. print unlimited amounts of worthless paper which will complete the move of the dollar to its intrinsic value of zero. This will totally destroy the US economy, thereby creating a frightening political and social climate.
    The reasons for an acceleration of money printing are manifold:
    1. Unemployment increasing

    US unemployment adjusted for short- and long-term discouraged workers is now 22% as shown in the chart below. This is an absolute disaster and will have very severe ramifications for the US economy. And it is likely to get a lot worse. During the 1930s depression non-farm unemployment reached 35%. Since the real problems in the economy have not started we would expect the US unemployment to reach at least 35% in the next 2-3 years and possibly a lot higher. With over 30 million people unemployed, this will put enormous strain on the US economy with a major reduction in GDP and tax revenues and a major increase in social payments. A country that is already bankrupt today is unlikely to cope with this additional burden. Currently 36 million Americans receive food stamps, an increase of almost 3 million in the last 6 months.

    2. Financial system still very vulnerable

    The $12 trillion which the US government has injected to stave off an implosion of the financial system and economy has only benefited the financial sector. Banks that have received these funds have not lent them on to the real economy.

    All they have done is to prop up their balance sheets and pay out record bonuses. But even with this massive injection of funds into the banking system virtually all banks are still bankrupt if their assets are taken at market value:
    • With the blessing of the government, banks have been allowed to value their toxic assets at totally phoney amounts. Instead of valuing these assets at market value they can be valued at expected maturity value which of course banks assume is 100%. This is just another fraudulent collusion between government and banks.
    • Mortgage loans are deteriorating at a rapid rate. In October 2009 another 330,000 properties went into foreclosure. There are 7 million US homes waiting to be repossessed. Resets of interest rates on Option ARM and ALT A mortgages in 2011-12 will lead to a massive increase in foreclosures and mortgage lender losses.
    • Commercial property values are declining fast and vacancy rates and defaults are surging. Values have declined by 35-50% but banks are so far not recognising the full reduction in values. For smaller banks, which make up 90% all US banks, 74% of loans are in commercial real estate. There is $1.4 trillion to be refinanced in the next four years much of which is property which is in negative equity or empty. It will be virtually impossible to refinance this amount.
    • More derivatives are being issued by the banks. The top four US banks now have $200 trillion outstanding. A big percentage of this could not be sold at anywhere near market value.
    • Over 130 US banks have failed so far in 2009. Values realised when the assets are sold are substantially below the stated values, making a mockery of the current valuation rules. Not to value at market is a crime and against all sound accounting principles. But this is of course done with the total blessing of the government since, if assets were valued at market, there would be no banking system.
    3. Government Deficits will escalate

    The increase in unemployment and the continued problems in the financial system are two of the major contributing factors that will make government deficits surge. But there are many other problem areas that will necessitate acceleration in money printing:
    • Tax revenues are falling rapidly
    • Many states in the US are already bankrupt and most others will follow.
    • Cash for clunkers and tax credits to new housing buyers are just two of many schemes that the government will launch to support failing industries.
    • Pension fund deficits will escalate rapidly and the government will need to subsidise pensioners.
    • Insurance companies will fail and the government will need to step in.
    The list of areas which will need government support is endless and the US government will inevitably print money to “save” the economy.
    Zero percent interest rates and unlimited money-printing = Lunacy

    To artificially set interest rates at zero and to print whatever money is needed goes against every single principle of sound money and a sound economy. Interest should be set by the market in order not to violate the laws of supply and demand. And money printing should be totally illegal. So why is it done? For governments to stay in power and bankers to prosper! Nobody else is prospering. Normal people are being conned into taking enormous debts that they will never be able to repay. And the value of their paper money is being totally destroyed as we have demonstrated above.

    We have in the last few years made clear to our investors and readers that there will be very serious consequences arising from the actions of the government:
    • Government deficit will surge. The current borrowings of $12 trillion are likely to increase to over $30 trillion as we have discussed in previous reports. Interest rates could then be 20% or more and the US government would have absolutely no possibility to finance the interest on this debt.
    • The dollar will collapse. It is only due to the fact the dollar is the reserve currency of the world that the US has been able to dupe the rest of the world into accepting its worthless currency and financing its enormous debts. But this will not last much longer.
    • There will be hyperinflation. A deflationary implosion of credit and assets financed by a credit bubble is the necessary precondition to hyperinflation. In order to counteract these deflationary factors, the government will be printing unlimited amounts of money. It is the fall of the currency that causes hyperinflation and the US will be no exception. The fall of the dollar will lead to a hyperinflationary depression in the US.
    • There will be major social and political consequences. The economic devastation caused by the mismanagement of the economy will not only create poverty and famine but also social unrest. There will be major changes in the political system and leadership.

    This report has mainly discussed the United States since what happens there has major consequences for the rest of the world. But what is likely to happen in the US is just as likely to happen in the UK and many other countries.
    Many investors now feel that the worst is over with stockmarkets recovering. In our January 2009 Newsletter we forecast that the stockmarket could have a 50% recovery. We have now had that recovery, mainly fuelled by massive liquidity injection by the government and cost savings in corporations. In our view the resumption of the downtrend could start at any time.
    It is not our purpose to frighten investors or to be sensational in our views and reports. Our purpose is to warn investors of the major dangers which make asset protection absolutely vital for financial survival in the next few years.

  5. #1725
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Vienna, Austria


    Hi Wax head:

    Not sure what you mean by "counter" I just posted two historical articles.
    The mission of any business enterprise should include the aim to develop economic conditions rather than simply react to them.

  6. #1726
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Vienna, Austria

    Default ETF effect

    Reading between the lines: Gold may go up or down . However some institutions are settling their accounts before year end.

    Gold bubble worries lead to significant sell-off in top gold ETF

    Investors have been taking profits in their holdings in the world's largest gold ETF on 'burst bubble' worries
    Author: Lawrence Williams
    Posted: Wednesday , 09 Dec 2009
    LONDON -
    The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), noted that its holdings fell to 1,116.247 tonnes, worth over $41 billion at the current gold price, as of December 8th. This represented a fall of 1.2 percent or more than 13 tonnes in a day and was the largest one-day drop in around five months according to a Reuters report. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF hit a record high of 1,134.03 tonnes on June 1, and up until recently had been climbing back towards this level again.
    Further falls were expected to be announced today as the gold market is going through a period of uncertainty and some investors are liquidating some or all of their holdings, and taking some hefty profits, in case the recent gold price falls are because a gold price ‘bubble' has burst.
    The SPDR Gold Trust gold holdings are larger than those of most nations' Central Banks, and there has always been a worry that this overhang of gold, effectively in fickle investors' hands, could in itself prompt a catastrophic fall in the gold price if sentiment moved sufficiently to generate a major sell-off, leading to a downwards price spiral.
    So far this has not happened, and with the weaker dollar this morning seeing the gold price pick up, and continuing economic uncertainty, there is evidence of buyers coming back into the gold market seeing the earlier falls as a good buying opportunity, and ignoring the ‘bubble' talk.
    There is no doubt that the recent sharp movements in the gold price that have seen it fluctuate up and back down by nearly $100 in the past weeks make this a market for those with nerves of steel. Several observers have warned of excessive volatility ahead and these warnings are definitely coming into play. The fundamentals which have been driving the gold price upwards are still in play, but as we have warned before on Mineweb, markets are often driven by investor sentiment and if the force is no longer seen to be with gold there could be even more volatility ahead for the price until some stability sets in.
    Movements up or down in the SPDR gold ETF holdings will thus be watched with particular interest over the next few days as this will be a good indicator of where gold investment sentiment is trending.
    The mission of any business enterprise should include the aim to develop economic conditions rather than simply react to them.

  7. #1727
    Join Date
    Jan 2004


    And to fan the flames some more...

    Quote Originally Posted by roubini.com
    Thus, the gold bugs are wrong—or at least very, very premature—in justifying buying gold as an attack on fiat currency. The velocity of money is still low or falling—the opposite of a currency crisis or run on the dollar. As a further indication of the collapse of credit/money multipliers, indicators of expected inflation are subdued or falling, despite governments printing money (excess reserves). The high inflation scenario may be constrained even if/when easy money gains too much traction, as the yield curve would steepen sharply, raising the discount rate for risky private sector debt and for corporate equity, limiting the speed of the recovery and hence the ability of states to impose inflation surprises in the context of shortening average debt maturities.

  8. #1728
    Join Date
    Sep 2008


    with usa employment figures improving, the dollar looks cheap

    if the usa's bad news is over the dollar will slowly strengthen

    as gold seems to be inversely linked to the dollar at the moment a strengthening dollar leads to a falling gold price currently $1125

    if most people decide the financial crisis is basically over the dollar will could go back to historical levels and so gold drop

    to me a drop below $1000 in 2010 seems unlikely
    have you defeated them?
    your demons

  9. #1729
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Vienna, Austria


    There is another interesting dynamic that may come into play in 2010. Gold producers when they expect Gold prices to fall hedge by holding onto production. Likewise when they think the price will rise they dehedge ( IE: Sell off their reserves). In the last quarter around 103 tonnes of gold came of the hedging books (ie was sold). Now I am not sure what this means for next years gold prices.... some commentators are saying it preludes a huge increase in supply ( as one commentator put it: equivalent to finding another South Africa). I wonder if there is another way of looking at it.......Miners are taking their profits now...........if the price drops they may well re hedge and this might keep the yellow metals price stable and prevent a 1981 style rout.

    I also note that China is reported to have substantially increased gold production this year. All in all I suppose the safest position to take is sit back and wait and see. The new year could be interesting.
    The mission of any business enterprise should include the aim to develop economic conditions rather than simply react to them.

  10. #1730
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Vienna, Austria

    Default The NZ herald


    That article left me none-the-wiser. In the last part of the article some commentator was stating that Gold demand in India and China was increasing. I agree with China but given that India's gold non-state demand level in 2009 is likely to be about 200 tonnes lower than 2008 I think that commentator is probably incorrect (in regards to India).
    The mission of any business enterprise should include the aim to develop economic conditions rather than simply react to them.


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