Property: Buy now or wait? (Andrew King and Dean Letfus)

[Commercial Dan]

I disagree with the big boom theory. It is usually promoted by those who want to believe everything will be OK in the future or are trying to sell something Eg RM.
The theory has a major flaw and this thread is not the place to discuss it. My views are clear and written in the big boom thread elsewhere on these PT forums.

The boomer flawed thread.

And for those that suffer from a Scotoma

.

Yup, I agree. I call it the 'this time it's different proponents', history shows it never is!

[whitt]

Maybe we should start a new thread CD?

Why the next boom will be a dud or an extremely long time away.

[donna]

I think we have all been quite surprised at how quickly the market has fallen in a short time (even though it has been talked about for years) - maybe, just maybe we will also be just as surprised at a similar turnaround and speed to a boom?

Cheers,

Donna

[Bluekiwi]

I have a new theory...

I do think there is another boom around the corner possibly starting in say 2010 to 2012.

And for exactly the same reason the last boom started in 2001.

But we have to look what was behind the last boom and what was behind the Immigration boom, it was in fact September 11.

We are entering a new technological age of terrorism so far only seen in the movies.

Their will be some great event, as their always is, that will send ex-pats and the dis-enchanted scurrying back to good old safe bottom of the world NZ.

Thats why long-term PI in NZ will be a safe bet.

[tanmedia]

But we have to look what was behind the last boom and what was behind the Immigration boom, it was in fact September 11.

Thats why long-term PI in NZ will be a safe bet.

Are you serious?? Al Quaida threatened to attack urban Australia. It did very little to start mass emigration to NZ!

It wouldn't have anything to do with a flood of cheap credit, would it?

[robbyp.]

I do think there is another boom around the corner possibly starting in say 2010 to 2012.

And for exactly the same reason the last boom started in 2001.

But we have to look what was behind the last boom and what was behind the Immigration boom, it was in fact September 11.

We are entering a new technological age of terrorism so far only seen in the movies.

Their will be some great event, as their always is, that will send ex-pats and the dis-enchanted scurrying back to good old safe bottom of the world NZ.

Thats why long-term PI in NZ will be a safe bet.

I don't agree. One reason that last boom happened, was because property was under valued, so some of the gain was a correction. However is is now very over valued, perhaps by as much as 30-40%. The NZ tresuary agrees with this, as they can see property prices dropping 30% and they are the experts.

The mainpeople who say property prices will rebound soon are realestate agents. They have a conflict of interest, and up until recently didn't admit that there was a property slump.

[Gatekeeper]

Don't agree Bluekiwi, like Tanmedia says, the last boom was fuelled by easy credit. Any idiot could get a loan and make money. It fed on itself.

I reckon enough legislation will be put in worldwide so that it can not happen again. This will take years to play out. The money printers and banksters have really done themselves in this time round. Combine that with limited resources and you wont have another boom for a decade++++++ (well maybe in resources)

If you want to make good money, look elsewhere meantime, or work harder and smarter.

[Austrokiwi]

I do think there is another boom around the corner possibly starting in say 2010 to 2012.

And for exactly the same reason the last boom started in 2001.

But we have to look what was behind the last boom and what was behind the Immigration boom, it was in fact September 11.

We are entering a new technological age of terrorism so far only seen in the movies.

Their will be some great event, as their always is, that will send ex-pats and the dis-enchanted scurrying back to good old safe bottom of the world NZ.

Thats why long-term PI in NZ will be a safe bet.

Say what!!
Yes I agree September 11 2001 started it but the boom was a blessing to Bin Ladin, the feds panicking was his greatest effect!!!! the fed panicked and printed heaps of money by dropping interest rates. Prior to sept 11 the US was heading into a recession ( mild one) but the excess money that was created fuelled a buying binge on debt. Now the house of cards is falling the correction is going to be longer and harder than it would have been if the fed had not printed all this excess money!! The situation is like the 1970's except instead of inflation killing peoples wealth it is debt which is having the effect!

And as for expats scurrying back to NZ................. I will head back to NZ to retire but I have already bought the property I will retire to and many other expats have done exactly the same. Also I would note from reading NZ newspapers it is clear NZ isn't that safe!!!!

[Bluekiwi]

So....

You are saying the huge flood of Immigration had nothing to do with the property boom ?

Supply and Demand dont determine market price ?

[SuperDad]

You are saying the huge flood of Immigration had nothing to do with the property boom ?

Supply and Demand dont determine market price ?

BK,

Read this thread.

Paul.

[Bluekiwi]

BK,

Read this thread.

Paul.

My opinion is the same as when I first read it.

It is rubbish.

[SuperDad]

Why is it rubbish?

Paul.

[67910241]

Blue Kiwi

I reckon it's pretty simple.

If the NZ economy is strong compared to those where the immigration comes and expats return from, people will want to come.

If it's not, then they won't. There's the www and cheap communication now, and there are numerous ethnic communities, all of them frequently serve as source of generally solid information on how good and hospitable a potential "new home" is, especially money-wise.

There must be an effect from the cashed-up new (or renewed) inhabitants settling here, but still, you first need a comparatively strong economy for them to wish to come/return.

Affordable houses are also a major issue. NZ real estate is not that cheap anymore compared to many of the places of immigration origin. Arguably, it's more expensive than in most of Asia (most of Japan included), more expensive than the bulk of the US and some parts of Europe. Pretty much the only places still dearer than NZ are a few overcrowded, dreary and miserable NW European contries like Britain, Ireland, France, the Netherlands. With the property slumps now in full force over there, that might change too.

Judging by my recent personal experience, I am now also convinced that self-prepared food, by far and large, is now considerably MORE expensive in Auckland NZ than in most metropolitan areas of Australia.

Aotearoa is NOT a cheap place to live in anymore. The salaries are still low. The cost of traveling in and out of the country is high and rising. These are becoming world-recognised facts. It will now take both a major lifestyle as well as economic carrot to incite people to come or return here.

[Bluekiwi]

Why is it rubbish?

Paul.

Its Economics 101 SD. YOu wont get many people agree with this thread.

Think Sahara desert where immigration is probably a little on the low side.

Think CBD london where Immigration has been rather strong over the last 100 years.

Which has had property prices go up ?

[SuperDad]

The question the research adresses is whether immigration drives house prices, or whether there is simply a non-causal correlation between immigration nd house prices.

The researchers report that there is neither a causal link, nor a strong positive correlation, between rising immigration and rising house prices.

There is a positive correlation between returning expats and rising house prices.

Without rejecting the methodology used or assumpions made by the researchers, it seems that we must accept their conclusion: increased immigration is not a strong driver of house price inflation.

As for CBD London, the researchers did not research CBD London (or the Sahara for that matter). Their research focussed on NZ.

Sometimes research can be useful for exploding commonly-held beliefs.

Paul.