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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    329

    Default Bank for International Settlements Depression Warning

    I've been watching the great debates on this site as to where the market will be heading over the last year or so. Commercial Dan (whoever you are??) seems to have made a lot of sense with his discussions for some time on the greater than generally appreciated risk of a global significant downturn.

    The below article from the UK Telegraph is one of a number of warnings (similar one from the Bank of Scotland a couple of weeks ago) which don't get any play in our dumbed down general media. When the BIS (Reserve Bank for Reserve Banks) makes a warning of this nature we're in big trouble.

    May be time to buy some gold and get that cabin in the woods you've been thinking of - the financial system and bursting of the Fiat currency superbubble (see George Soros new book) is about to go 1929 on us...

    BIS warns of Great Depression dangers from credit spree
    By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

    Last Updated: 9:02am BST 25/06/2007





    The Bank for International Settlements, the world's most prestigious financial body, has warned that years of loose monetary policy has fuelled a dangerous credit bubble, leaving the global economy more vulnerable to another 1930s-style slump than generally understood.

    etc - google telegraph.co.uk as I seem to be unable to post the link here having not made any posts before



    Haven't seen this commented on elsewhere on this site and would be interested in your thoughts.

    Cheers
    T

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Posts
    210

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    1,327

    Default

    This was a year ago and the crisis has already happened.
    Nigel Turner

  4. #4

    Default

    I think history will show that the crisis may have started last year but is a long way from having finished.

    Inflation is rampant, the USD is set for another significant decline, global stockmarkets are sliding. Talk of whether we will enter recession is now turning instead to how long and deep the recession will be and even whether in fact it may be a depression....

    The indicators certainly don't suggest that the crisis has "happened."

    CT

  5. #5
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Posts
    1,070

    Default

    Its about to get worse for NZ.

  6. #6

    Default

    I agree CC. We will feel the effects of the global inflation story as well as being hit even harder from the followings factors (among others);

    - Tourism. High oil prices and our remoteness will work against us no matter how clean and green.
    - More finance companies (and non finance company prime lenders) still to fail.
    - Building sector going into a tailspin with the consequent reverse multiplier effect through the economy.
    - In general we are seen as a risky economy for foreign investment hence I expect offshore money to increase its rate of pull out.

    Not pretty at all.

    CT

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    329

    Default Apologies for wrong article.

    Try this from Malaysia Sun 2 days ago:

    BIS Report gives grim assessment for future economy
    Malaysia sun| July 1, 2008
    The Bank for International Settlements has warned the world to brace for a severe economic downturn.
    Last year, BIS gave a pre-warning about the growing risks of inflation when the inflation level was still reasonably low.
    In its latest annual report BIS has gives a more grim assessment, suggesting the magnitude of the world’s economic problems could be about to expand even further.

    ETC - Google full article - Full BIS report available from its website.

    I admire your optimism Tucker. You just have to look at the price of commodities to realise inflation is running rampant. The Federal Reserve stopped releasing data on M3 money supply in early 2006 for a reason. They wanted to print money out of thin air (which is what our fiat money system is - watch Money As Debt on U-tube) without any measure of this. The results in the coming year will be disasterous. Even the Saudi King has reported recently (this week) that the price of oil increase is as a direct response to devaluation of the dollar (ie inflation) and being asked by the US governement to keep the Saudi currency pegged to the dollar.

    Draw your own conclusions, but make sure your willing to look under the rock to see whats really going on before believing what you see in the mainstream media.

    I wish I was wrong but unfortunately I think the worst is far from over...

    Cheers
    T

  8. #8
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Posts
    1,070

    Default

    Look for increasing numbers of redundancies in Retail then as the price of Aviation fuel filters through, the demise of regional airlines (Virgin?), a reduction in tourism numbers, leading to redundancies in the hospitality industry.
    Unemployment is on the rise.
    But hey NZ is leading the world......into recession.
    Well done Labour. Nine years of the best economic conditions for decades wasted.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    1,520

    Default

    We are a long way off finishing this downturn, in fact it has just begun. Things are going to be bad here for the next 3 years, stay nimble and have plenty of cash or real assets. Some will find great property deals but newbys just be aware, especially this last ditch effort from some developers to sell you their dud apartments. Don't be dumb!

    Have a mix, a great strategy would be to go long in gold or other commodities, buy property, sell gold in 2-3 years to pay off your then cheep loans. You will be laughing in 2011-12.

    Also, if you have made all your money in the recent upturn, don't lose it! Be defensive and cautious, but at the same time take action.

    Good luck!

  10. #10

    Default

    Have a mix, a great strategy would be to go long in gold or other commodities, buy property, sell gold in 2-3 years to pay off your then cheep loans. You will be laughing in 2011-12.
    Sound advice!! Maybe add in a few PM mining stocks if feeling adventurous. Or go short the USDX.

    CT


 

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