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  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Central Portugal
    Posts
    7

    Default uk property at bottom?

    I have a feeling that although todays figures show the sharpest drop in the Nationwide index history that there is little more to drop, I base this theory on a number of factors.
    Firstly there is still a huge shortage of houses in the uk and therefore a large demand, the employment figures are historicaly excelent and although down on last year, last month showed an increase in mortgages granted compared to the month before.
    I believe that soon we will have adjusted to high energy costs as they appear to be here to stay and also sterlings position in the markets once these mental adjustments have taken place confidence will begin to return and early next year we will see once again record numbers of people moving into the investment property overseas market and in my case hopefully a large portion of that to the Portuguese sector.
    ppp

  2. #2

    Default

    Have read a few items in UK media predicting another 20% drop still to come. Over building means around 3% of homes are vacant due to developers continuing to build.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Central Portugal
    Posts
    7

    Default Against all popular feeling.

    It is widely known and reported that there is a housing shortage in the uk more than 50,000 houses will be needed in the south in the next ten years alone overbuilding is an American and Spanish problem but not a uk problem.
    ppp

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Christchurch, New Zealand
    Posts
    1,125

    Default

    UK House Prices to Rise by 25% States National Housing Federation
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5654.html

    As you can see the existing NHF forecast for a 40% rise was made right at the peak of the UK housing market. In my opinion it is completely irrelevant for what seems like a vested interest in a rising housing market to come out with an annual bullish house price forecast, as those that followed NHF's 'forecast' have clearly paid the price in not only missing a 10% advance in house prices, but also suffering a fall of 10%, therefore a 20% deviation from the trend to date.
    However, the latest 5 year forecast by NHF for a 25% rise which equates to a compounded rise of approx 4.5% per annum is a very, very safe forecast, for inflation as measured by RPI is also expected to oscillate around an average of 4.5% over the next 5 years and therefore the actual forecast is for ZERO REAL TERMS GAIN.
    ---------------

    Re demand:
    When people get wealthier I think they occupy more housing per person.
    During poorer times, they increase occupancy rates.
    Maybe this demand won't be as big.
    Not to mention the Polish plumbers leaving

    One puzzle. If demand is so high, why are there so many houses available to buy ? There seems to be something missing here.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Central Portugal
    Posts
    7

    Default

    I agree with most of that however i think that borrowing will remain tight for some time. Bigger deposits will be needed in the future no bad thing for the long term future of the market.
    ppp

  6. #6
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Central Portugal
    Posts
    7

    Default Good news at least a little.

    For the third month in a row more people are looking for property in the uk mortgage rates have fallen with three of the biggest lenders so perhaps those green shoots we all remember are popping their heads up also retail sales have surprisingly rallied so lets hope.
    ppp

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Melbourne, Australia
    Posts
    277

    Default

    I'm not sure about property being at bottom, but one thing's for sure, it will bottom out at some stage and then come back up. Strong population growth in the UK ensures this.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Christchurch, New Zealand
    Posts
    1,125

    Default

    I think the rate of change has to go back up to 0% before it's hit the bottom



    Not much sign of it stopping falling yet, yet alone levelling off, let alone rising back to 0%.

    And just to compare this rate of fall in prices with what happened last time:


  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Melbourne, Australia
    Posts
    277

    Default Cool Graph.

    This is a cool graph. It looks like the drop in UK values is precipitous. Iím wondering if it is possible that the market in New Zealand could tank in such an accelerated fashion. Steve.

  10. #10

    Default

    Very intesting!
    A friend of mine has a property in the UK - does it mean now that his house is worth less if he would sell it now?
    I knew that the prices where crashing in the US but i hear the first time that it is as bad in the UK!


 

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