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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Christchurch, New Zealand
    Posts
    1,125

    Default

    Volatile can be good and bad.
    It's good when the price rises

    Yes, I agree short-term trading on gold can be a very quick way (but quicker is silver) to lose your money.
    Long-term, if you think it is in a long-term bull phase, it offers two things:
    1. Insurance. There is little else that offers a safe way to hold your money.
    2. The potential for large gains versus those who do not hold it.

    I did these yesterday just to show how 'bad' an investment gold & silver have been over the past year. It's easy to get glum on the very short-term moves.
    On the longer picture things aren't so bad.

    And yes, there are many who are convinced of manipulation. I am.
    But there is a thing about manipulation. It cannot affect the long-term trend.
    It can actually be viewed as good, because on dips it allows the ordinary investor to buy at a discount.






    This article came up yesterday as well.
    Related to previous things I've posted.

    US and European debt markets flash new warning signals

    By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
    Last Updated: 6:40am BST 29/05/2008

    The debt markets in the US and Europe have begun to flash warning signals yet again, raising fears that the global credit crisis could be entering another turbulent phase.

    The cost of insuring against default on the bonds of Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and other big banks and brokerages has surged over the last two weeks, threatening to reach the stress levels seen before the Bear Stearns debacle. Spreads on inter-bank Libor and Euribor rates in Europe are back near record levels.

    Credit default swaps (CDS) on Lehman debt have risen from around 130 in late April to 247, while Merrill debt has spiked to 196. Most analysts had thought the coast was clear for such broker dealers after the US Federal Reserve invoked an emergency clause in March to let them borrow directly from its lending window.

    But there are now concerns that the Fed itself may be exhausting its $800bn (£399bn) stock of assets. It has swapped almost $300bn of 10-year Treasuries for questionable mortgage debt, and provided Term Auction Credit of $130bn.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...-mostviewedbox

    Remember this ?


  2. #42
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Christchurch, New Zealand
    Posts
    1,125

    Default

    I know Mark dislikes comparisons with the Great Depression, but this one just came up:


    Through the floor
    May 29th 2008
    America's house prices are falling even faster than during the Great Depression
    http://www.economist.com/displayStor...ry_id=11465476

    AS HOUSE prices in America continue their rapid descent, market-watchers are having to cast back ever further for gloomy comparisons. The latest S&P/Case-Shiller national house-price index, published this week, showed a slump of 14.1% in the year to the first quarter, the worst since the index began 20 years ago. Now Robert Shiller, an economist at Yale University and co-inventor of the index, has compiled a version that stretches back over a century. This shows that the latest fall in nominal prices is already much bigger than the 10.5% drop in 1932, the worst point of the Depression. And things are even worse than they look. In the deflationary 1930s house prices declined less in real terms. Today inflation is running at a brisk pace, so property prices have fallen by a staggering 18% in real terms over the past year.
    Checkout the graph !!!


    It wasn't me that said it

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Christchurch, New Zealand
    Posts
    1,125

    Default

    Now we have this one:

    Recession? Maybe. Depression? Get real

    Yes, the economy is in rough shape. But comparisons to the Great Depression are misguided.

    http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/28/mark...ion=2008052812

    and a reply to it:

    CNNMoney.com's ‘Great Depression Comparisons Misguided' Conflicts with Historical Fact

    May 30, 2008 - 01:28 PM By: Paul_Lamont
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4886.html

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Christchurch, New Zealand
    Posts
    1,125

    Default

    A good listen:

    The Second Great Depression:
    Started 2007/2008 Ending 2020,
    Second Edition
    Author Warren Brussee

    Listen: http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcas...008-0607-2.mp3


    http://www.booklocker.com/books/1962.html

    from: http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Christchurch, New Zealand
    Posts
    1,125

    Default

    Central bank body warns of Great Depression
    June 9, 2008
    by Gill Montia
    http://www.bankingtimes.co.uk/090620...at-depression/

    The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the organisation that fosters cooperation between central banks, has warned that the credit crisis could lead world economies into a crash on a scale not seen since the 1930s.

    In its latest quarterly report, the body points out that the Great Depression of the 1930s was not foreseen and that commentators on the financial turmoil, instigated by the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, may not have grasped the level of exposure that lies at its heart.

    According to the BIS, complex credit instruments, a strong appetite for risk, rising levels of household debt and long-term imbalances in the world currency system, all form part of the loose monetarist policy that could result in another Great Depression.

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Vienna, Austria
    Posts
    2,662

    Default

    Usually the BIS is the master of understatement...... so its a bit of a worry.

    5-6 years ago I realised I really didn't know what money was/is. I recognised, intellectually, that the money I spent actually changed in value; but I also realised my every day actions/thoughts were as if it was a constant, and all the commodities I purchased fluctuated in value.

    So I started to try and work out what money is!!!! Well in that process I came to realize that the world monetary system was a house of cards, and it worked because it had to ie: Central banks etc made it work because the consequences of it not working are horrific. So its a little scary when the BIS starts saying depression.

    It seems to me that with the final demise of specie currency 37-38 years ago the world has been heading into uncharted territory. The change is more profound that that started by Nero when he debased the Roman Currency ( at least he kept it specie backed) as the currency used today is all fiat.

  7. #47
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Manukau Auckland
    Posts
    1,049

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Shane D View Post
    When you say demand dropped...are you referring to consumer demand for Jewerly??

    Investment demand for gold is WAY bigger than jewerly demand as people around the world look to protect their assets against inflation.

    Gold will continue to rise for the next few years until the world major governments get serious about tackling inflation (i.e USA).

    I will openly predict Gold will be $1,200 - $1,300 USD an ounce by 2008 Dec.

    Gold is still cheap today. The Gold/Oil ratio is at historic lows. Presently it takes 7 barrels of oil to buy an ounce of gold. Historically the number has bounced between 10 - 15 barrels of oil to buy an ounce of gold.

    Something to think about.

    Shane Dennison
    Just reminding myself...and others of my terrible gold price prediction skills. Here I am in 2008 predicting a price between $1,200 - $1,300 USD. I think it ended 2008 at around $700. Oppps ...a bit of a miss .

    Shane

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Posts
    7,562

    Default

    you quoted?

    when?

    where?

    not here...

    i fear...
    Last edited by eri; 17-04-2011 at 02:45 AM.
    have you defeated them?
    your demons


 

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