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  1. #1
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    Default Precious Metals - My charts, Links etc

    Hi guys,
    The weather is too nice to do it all now, but I'll post a load of charts and links here, and reply to your posts on this thread:
    https://www.propertytalk.com/forum/sh...3&postcount=81
    as well.
    Cheers
    Steve

  2. #2
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    Apr 2008
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    Default

    Just to start this off, I'm going to mention what I think is the best site for learning about gold, and reading the latest news.
    Jim Sinclair has been doing this since before the last gold peak in 1980, and knows almost an infinite amount more than me.
    I'm just learning and very interested in the subject.

    Jim Sinclair's MineSet
    http://www.jsmineset.com/

    He does everything he does for nothing. There is no pay subscription.
    IMO you can learn a lot about gold from reading his site. It may take you a little time to tune into his style of writing, but when you do, you'll see that he knows what he is talking about.

    Steve

  3. #3
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    Default

    Some of my charts.

    Gold in US$, with the volatility (max-min/min for each year).




    New Zealand house prices measured in oz of gold:

    Last edited by Steve Netwriter; 26-04-2008 at 01:26 PM.

  4. #4
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    Default

    There are a couple of predictions I've put on a chart.
    The $1650 one from Jim Sinclair, and the $10,000 from Krassimir Petrov.
    I hope this chart kinda puts the last bull phase and the current one into context.




    And this shows what effect various flights of money into gold might have:


  5. #5
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    Default

    The precious metals prices do not go up in a nice gradual fashion.
    So anyone investing IMO needs to do a lot of research first, and understand how volatile it is.

    This is a chart from Jim Sinclair's site, which I hope gives you the idea:




    I think the best advice I've read is this.
    Average in. ie buy gradually over time. Try and pick the dips.
    Before you buy anything, accept that the price may well go lower before going up again. So don't buy until you are reconciled to buying and holding no matter what.

    Buy and hold. Or long and strong

    From what I've read, this is a long-term bull phase for gold. That means until at least 2011. So ignore the noise (ups and downs) once you've bought. Just use it when buying to try and get the best prices.

  6. #6
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    Default

    Can you tell this is one of my pet subjects

    This is the way I see gold at the moment:



    and a similar one for silver:




    In more detail for silver, from yesterday:

    In US$:



    And in GBP:




    The way I analyse the charts is from techniques I've picked up from expert articles I've read. So just my view, but hopefully using reasonably sound techniques.

  7. #7
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    Default

    If you read articles about gold and silver, you'll probably see some references to "the cartel" and "manipulation".
    There are some who do not believe the market is manipulated.
    From what I've read, I think it is.

    I think the best source to read about it is here:

    GATA
    http://www.gata.org

    For example:

    Chris Powell: There are no markets anymore, just interventions
    http://gata.org/node/6241

    and then there is this one:

    The How And Why Of Gold Price Manipulation
    http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=5D7455EA-17A4-1130-F5A89CE1B0211129


    The simple idea is this. Paper money only works because people believe in it. Imagine what would happen if others stopped believing in the paper notes in your pocket.
    And gold and silver are the oldest forms of money, and are effectively the only competition for the paper money used throughout the world.
    The idea is that if gold & silver are allowed to go up in a free market, then people would notice how the purchasing power of their paper money is going down.

  8. #8
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    Apr 2008
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    Default

    Talking of the purchasing power of paper money.
    I think this is interesting.
    It shows the cost of crude oil in various 'currencies'.
    Notice how the cost has gone up in all the paper currencies listed, but is fairly stable when priced in gold.



    Even worse against the US$:



    If you think about that, it should tell you something.

  9. #9
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    Default

    OK, anyone into investing IMO needs to understand cycles. Economies go in cycles. At any one time, certain sectors will be more profitable than others.
    So, at the start of a housing boom would be the best time to invest in property.
    The start of a tech bubble would be the best time to invest in tech stocks.
    etc etc

    If you understand and appreciate that, then you can move from sector to sector to do the best for yourself.

    Since this thread is about precious metals, you'll want to know when precious metals are in a bearish phase, and when they are in a bullish phase right ?

    The Zeal website ( http://www.zealLLC.com )has some great charts on this.
    It may take a bit of looking to understand this as it's got so many lines on it. It took me a while.
    The idea is this. If interest rates are above the rate of inflation people will put their money into Treasury Bills (or equivalent). Gold will go down.
    When interest rates are below the rate of inflation, people would lose money if they bough T-Bills, and so they move into real assets, like gold & silver.
    When the blue line is low, gold will tend to go up.


  10. #10
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    Default

    Quite a few people on the internet like to compare property prices with the price of gold. Actually they ask "how many 1oz gold coins do I need to buy a house?".
    By using gold as an international money, you can get a more international view of property prices than measuring then purely in the local currency.
    What I mean by that is this. If you are in the UK and measure house prices in GBP, then if a house goes from 150,000 to 200,000 you think it's gone up.
    But what if someone in another country notices that the GBP has gone down, and convert the price into their local currency, and instead of seeing the price go up, actually see it go down !
    From an international perspective, things may not be what you see from a local perspective.

    Anyway, for me I'm interested in New Zealand house prices. You can see from this chart that at times it would have been better to be in vested in property. At other times it would have been better to be invested in gold.
    I've included 3x possible outcomes if the NZ$, house prices move down by 10, 20 & 30%, and gold up by 10%, 20% and 30%.
    The result rather surprised me.



 

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