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The Big Picture
Do these words & phrases reflect our mood & common status, & collectively constitute the Big Picture today? I invite U to take part in this staccato analysis as U read it. My criteria: control & price. ••OIL: Russia to control supply. Price may get dangerously out of control (via a series of crises). •••IRAQ: Who will control? Blood price being paid. Who will pay cash price & prestige price? Is US the answer to both questions? Is master control switch slipping out of US hands by fluke (& the US election)? •••D-DAY: Control long past; price already paid. •••GREATEST GENERATION (& Memorial): Their control expiring L. Price: lost vital experience. •••STOCK MKT TURBULENCE: Bear in control yet? (Public says No). Is its index & P/E price too high? (History says Yes). •••BOND MKT: Price slipping out of control of insiders? If so, price could be biggest ever paid.
•••INTEREST RATES: Markets taking control from Fed who won’t play by rules. Mkts want higher numbers now. •••THE UN: Taking back control? Guess who pays the pride-price? •••US DEFICITS: unquestionably out of control, but no one, in or out of US, wants to pay price to begin repairs. •••MOST GOVTS: out of control of their citizens. Public pays price & wears handcuffs. Did gradual theft of personal privacy open the door to political serfdom? •••US IDENTITY crisis (& how did we get in this muddle?). Control: by ideologues. Price? Bill being tabulated (no credit cards accepted). •••EUROPE EXPANSION to 25 nations: Control not too tight J. Price: not too high J. •••EUROPE CONSTITUTION draft: If control stays with elitists: price will be too expensive in life terms. L ! Help Wanted: Jefferson ghostwriter, with guts of Thomas Payne. Too late?
•••CHINA: Probably back in economic control; avoids the overkill price. •••BUBBLES (multiple): not yet out of control? Price paying delayed. Weeks? Months? Years? (If betting: months likely winner). •••GLOBAL ECONOMIES: getting moderate control, at moderate price. Be grateful for small mercies? •••MONEY SUPPLY: Magic potion or deadly poison pill? Out of control in US (see inside) & borderline in UK. World to pay price for historic Fed folly? •••DEFLATION: has role to play but not the main act? More likely in act 3. Control via Central Banks. Price: public pays. •••INFLATION: has main role on world stage (now)? If so, control already slipping away from Central Banks. If so, price to pay: drastic loss of buying power of currencies. Majority lose. Minority (Hslm’s J) gain. •••US WORLD-IMAGE Downgrade: beyond control of citizens (?), who pay the price for loss of (certified by global polls)?
•••US DOLLAR: control has passed to creditor nations. US citizens pay price via sliding purchase power. •••BUSH: on every tongue every day, everywhere. Reviews mixed in US. Not mixed elsewhere. On learning curve? Control?? Price? US jury out. Non-US jury in, but has no vote, so protest, unilateralism notably. •••DEBT: mutant mega-termites, eating the fabric of economic body, govt & private. Out of control. Price? If by natural mkt forces: via deflation. If by govt forces: via mega-inflation. •••DERIVATIVES: A stock mkt nuclear bomb awaiting detonation. Control: none. Transparency: none. Public awareness: none. Registration? Greeny opposes it (equivalent to opposing SEC registration of stocks/bonds). Price if detonated: Stk mkt would mimic Nagasaki. Odds of detonation? Unknown. •••BIGGEST CURRENT MARKET WORRY: interest rates move up too fast, hit stocks, bonds & house prices. Odds 50-50? •••2nd BIGGEST WORRY: If China misses soft landing. Odds: 30%. Control? A lot, in Beijing. Price: shrinking mkt for commodities, & shrinking supply of all manufactured goods (with higher prices), worst of 3 worlds.
Ronald Reagan said life used to have continuity, in decades past. Life certainly lacks it now, as all the above in part reflects. We must work to bring back continuity, starting with our individual lives. •Though we collectively face some very rough seas ahead, geo-politically, socially & economically, I am optimistic that there is a bright light at the end of this earth tunnel. That by or before the end of this decade (+/-), morality will begin a renaissance & politics will begin to reform, probably via the harsh realities of crashes, social turmoil, economic upheaval & war.
IMO, new leaders with true courage & wisdom will emerge. Today’s immorality & frauds in biz, govt & society will be scorned. It’s perhaps a form of: crash&burn leads to a splendid phoenix emergent. It has happened before. Individual freedom will return. We’ll look back on this period with horror, that we let govts get away with stealing our lives & our right to, & the pleasure of privacy. We can set the stage by beginning to demand higher standards, instead of accepting the daily lowering of them. Today’s shrugging of shoulders at the latest frauds, military adventures & degrading life-styles (encouraged in films/TV) needs to stop before repairs can begin to the body politic & the human psyche. A renaissance changed the world for the better in early European history. We can make-it-so, again.
Do these words & phrases reflect our mood & common status, & collectively constitute the Big Picture today? I invite U to take part in this staccato analysis as U read it. My criteria: control & price. ••OIL: Russia to control supply. Price may get dangerously out of control (via a series of crises). •••IRAQ: Who will control? Blood price being paid. Who will pay cash price & prestige price? Is US the answer to both questions? Is master control switch slipping out of US hands by fluke (& the US election)? •••D-DAY: Control long past; price already paid. •••GREATEST GENERATION (& Memorial): Their control expiring L. Price: lost vital experience. •••STOCK MKT TURBULENCE: Bear in control yet? (Public says No). Is its index & P/E price too high? (History says Yes). •••BOND MKT: Price slipping out of control of insiders? If so, price could be biggest ever paid.
•••INTEREST RATES: Markets taking control from Fed who won’t play by rules. Mkts want higher numbers now. •••THE UN: Taking back control? Guess who pays the pride-price? •••US DEFICITS: unquestionably out of control, but no one, in or out of US, wants to pay price to begin repairs. •••MOST GOVTS: out of control of their citizens. Public pays price & wears handcuffs. Did gradual theft of personal privacy open the door to political serfdom? •••US IDENTITY crisis (& how did we get in this muddle?). Control: by ideologues. Price? Bill being tabulated (no credit cards accepted). •••EUROPE EXPANSION to 25 nations: Control not too tight J. Price: not too high J. •••EUROPE CONSTITUTION draft: If control stays with elitists: price will be too expensive in life terms. L ! Help Wanted: Jefferson ghostwriter, with guts of Thomas Payne. Too late?
•••CHINA: Probably back in economic control; avoids the overkill price. •••BUBBLES (multiple): not yet out of control? Price paying delayed. Weeks? Months? Years? (If betting: months likely winner). •••GLOBAL ECONOMIES: getting moderate control, at moderate price. Be grateful for small mercies? •••MONEY SUPPLY: Magic potion or deadly poison pill? Out of control in US (see inside) & borderline in UK. World to pay price for historic Fed folly? •••DEFLATION: has role to play but not the main act? More likely in act 3. Control via Central Banks. Price: public pays. •••INFLATION: has main role on world stage (now)? If so, control already slipping away from Central Banks. If so, price to pay: drastic loss of buying power of currencies. Majority lose. Minority (Hslm’s J) gain. •••US WORLD-IMAGE Downgrade: beyond control of citizens (?), who pay the price for loss of (certified by global polls)?
•••US DOLLAR: control has passed to creditor nations. US citizens pay price via sliding purchase power. •••BUSH: on every tongue every day, everywhere. Reviews mixed in US. Not mixed elsewhere. On learning curve? Control?? Price? US jury out. Non-US jury in, but has no vote, so protest, unilateralism notably. •••DEBT: mutant mega-termites, eating the fabric of economic body, govt & private. Out of control. Price? If by natural mkt forces: via deflation. If by govt forces: via mega-inflation. •••DERIVATIVES: A stock mkt nuclear bomb awaiting detonation. Control: none. Transparency: none. Public awareness: none. Registration? Greeny opposes it (equivalent to opposing SEC registration of stocks/bonds). Price if detonated: Stk mkt would mimic Nagasaki. Odds of detonation? Unknown. •••BIGGEST CURRENT MARKET WORRY: interest rates move up too fast, hit stocks, bonds & house prices. Odds 50-50? •••2nd BIGGEST WORRY: If China misses soft landing. Odds: 30%. Control? A lot, in Beijing. Price: shrinking mkt for commodities, & shrinking supply of all manufactured goods (with higher prices), worst of 3 worlds.
Ronald Reagan said life used to have continuity, in decades past. Life certainly lacks it now, as all the above in part reflects. We must work to bring back continuity, starting with our individual lives. •Though we collectively face some very rough seas ahead, geo-politically, socially & economically, I am optimistic that there is a bright light at the end of this earth tunnel. That by or before the end of this decade (+/-), morality will begin a renaissance & politics will begin to reform, probably via the harsh realities of crashes, social turmoil, economic upheaval & war.
IMO, new leaders with true courage & wisdom will emerge. Today’s immorality & frauds in biz, govt & society will be scorned. It’s perhaps a form of: crash&burn leads to a splendid phoenix emergent. It has happened before. Individual freedom will return. We’ll look back on this period with horror, that we let govts get away with stealing our lives & our right to, & the pleasure of privacy. We can set the stage by beginning to demand higher standards, instead of accepting the daily lowering of them. Today’s shrugging of shoulders at the latest frauds, military adventures & degrading life-styles (encouraged in films/TV) needs to stop before repairs can begin to the body politic & the human psyche. A renaissance changed the world for the better in early European history. We can make-it-so, again.