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Beware the bursting housing bubble
Article from: The Courier-Mail
Scott Pape
November 12, 2007 12:00am
I ARRIVED in Japan with no Lonely Planet guide, map, or pre-arranged airport pick-up for my first visit to the country. No, that would be too easy.
At the peak of the market in 1991, property in Japan was worth four times the value of all property in the US – on paper anyway.
Buoyed by low interest rates, financiers introduced the concept of intergenerational loans, and eased credit standards as a way of helping people attain the booming prices.
Every day investors were caught up in the mania. Many salarymen, fearing they'd be priced out of the market as it continued higher, bought properties they knew they couldn't afford, in the hope that price increases would wipe away their folly.
Between 1989 and 1990 the Bank of Japan became worried that the property boom was becoming a bubble and took preventative steps, tightening interest rates. The bubble popped.
The resulting bust saw housing prices fall for 14 years in a row, and prices retreated as far as 60 per cent in Japan's capital cities.
The stockmarket crashed 80 per cent, consumers slowed their spending and the economy plunged into a prolonged recession.
Daisuke Sato was one bloke I met who was caught in the crash. He bought an apartment in 1990 for (roughly) $500,000, and 17 years later the pad is worth only $280,000.
Sato has a constant reminder of the mania – a massive mortgage that needs to be paid back regardless of the price of his home.
The latest craze in Japan is online currency trading.
According to some estimates, as many as 600,000 new margin accounts were opened in the past year. Many of these came from so-called Kimono traders – the wives of salarymen who collectively control $12.5 trillion in household savings.
With Japanese interest rates at 0.5 per cent, housewives have hunted down better deals. So they borrow yen at 0.5 per cent and invest in the Aussie dollar at 6.75 per cent, and pocket the difference. It's not exactly rocket science.
The only problem is when the currency markets get turbulent, which they did in August because of the credit crunch, some analysts suggest that Kimono traders lost $2.5 billion that month alone.
For all the differences, Japan and Australia have many similarities. Both are ageing at a rapid rate. The mandatory age for retirement at most Japanese companies is 60, so the first batch of baby boomers is beginning to retire.
The crash, and the years of recession that followed, have left many without adequate savings for retirement. This may be one reason behind the rapid rise of online currency trading.
While I doubt Australia will have a financial meltdown like Japan has experienced, there is still a timely lesson here of the danger that housing debt can become.
Tread your own path.
Scott Pape is a licensed financial adviser and director of Barefoot Investment Management.
[email protected]
Article from: The Courier-Mail
Scott Pape
November 12, 2007 12:00am
I ARRIVED in Japan with no Lonely Planet guide, map, or pre-arranged airport pick-up for my first visit to the country. No, that would be too easy.
At the peak of the market in 1991, property in Japan was worth four times the value of all property in the US – on paper anyway.
Buoyed by low interest rates, financiers introduced the concept of intergenerational loans, and eased credit standards as a way of helping people attain the booming prices.
Every day investors were caught up in the mania. Many salarymen, fearing they'd be priced out of the market as it continued higher, bought properties they knew they couldn't afford, in the hope that price increases would wipe away their folly.
Between 1989 and 1990 the Bank of Japan became worried that the property boom was becoming a bubble and took preventative steps, tightening interest rates. The bubble popped.
The resulting bust saw housing prices fall for 14 years in a row, and prices retreated as far as 60 per cent in Japan's capital cities.
The stockmarket crashed 80 per cent, consumers slowed their spending and the economy plunged into a prolonged recession.
Daisuke Sato was one bloke I met who was caught in the crash. He bought an apartment in 1990 for (roughly) $500,000, and 17 years later the pad is worth only $280,000.
Sato has a constant reminder of the mania – a massive mortgage that needs to be paid back regardless of the price of his home.
The latest craze in Japan is online currency trading.
According to some estimates, as many as 600,000 new margin accounts were opened in the past year. Many of these came from so-called Kimono traders – the wives of salarymen who collectively control $12.5 trillion in household savings.
With Japanese interest rates at 0.5 per cent, housewives have hunted down better deals. So they borrow yen at 0.5 per cent and invest in the Aussie dollar at 6.75 per cent, and pocket the difference. It's not exactly rocket science.
The only problem is when the currency markets get turbulent, which they did in August because of the credit crunch, some analysts suggest that Kimono traders lost $2.5 billion that month alone.
For all the differences, Japan and Australia have many similarities. Both are ageing at a rapid rate. The mandatory age for retirement at most Japanese companies is 60, so the first batch of baby boomers is beginning to retire.
The crash, and the years of recession that followed, have left many without adequate savings for retirement. This may be one reason behind the rapid rise of online currency trading.
While I doubt Australia will have a financial meltdown like Japan has experienced, there is still a timely lesson here of the danger that housing debt can become.
Tread your own path.
Scott Pape is a licensed financial adviser and director of Barefoot Investment Management.
[email protected]
