Real Estate Agencies View of The Current Market

[Cadmium]

I subscribe to regular emails from a number of real estate agents promoting the usual hideously over priced opportunities for Aucklanders to "Nest or Invest".

I received one today from Goodwin Realty/Ray White containing the market commentary below.

I thought some of you might find it interesting.

Hi <Name of Recipient>

As predicted; there has been evidence of a slowing residential housing market across the last couple of months. The reserve bank has arguably succeeded in its goals. Though, whilst some people, including Ex Reserve Bank Governor Don Brash say the market will fall; others say it will only become steady, and remain so for some time. We predict a leveling of prices with an extended 'days on market' with none or little fall in prices.

Our observation tells us

That July was the first month buyer enquiry fell away, to the extent that replies to all areas of advertising came down from previous months.

New listings to the market are steadily improving; and, we expect many more homes will come onto the market over the next 3 months. As is quite normal for this time of the year with Christmas coming and people wanting to be settled by then; the trend has always been to list and sell as Spring arrives.

The real impact of the reserve banks actions has been on our purchaser's decision making processes.

Buyers are taking longer to make up their minds, being more careful with their choices and financial planning.

The long term security of ownership will remain.

Property is and will always remain the strongest investment you can make for your future.

The more astute vendor will now place their property on the market with a competitive asking price; so, as to attract the diminished number of qualified buyers looking to purchase NOW.

As referred above, with Spring just around this corner we will see increased listings, which in turn will increase competition between sellers to attract those buyers.

Vendors may then need to negotiate a slightly lower price than they have been quoted only a few months ago; but they will also be able to purchase at a reduced price. As long as you sell and buy on the same market; the difference you pay between should be similar.

Thanks for your time.

Regards,
<Name of Real Estate Agent @ raywhite.com>

[cube]

An agent/salesperson promised me this morning that one particular suburb of Auckland was going to increase "50&#37; in the next two years".

He wasn't swayed by the argument that buyers will dry up, because it will be harder to get a mortgage, or that the number of properties on the market would increase due to over-stretched households and investors having to liquidate.

cube

[Edinburgh]

I find that Ray White analysis to be very creditable in terms of what will happen, but it is contradictory on one impt point.

If, as advised, sellers accept a lower price than they could have got a few months ago and buy at a lower price, then guess what, prices overall will come down - which the guy started off saying wouldn't happen.

Unless the US implodes, and currently that doesn't seem likely (new house sales up in July - amazing), then I see a settling down of the housing market in the spring and summer.

On the negative side we have higher rates, finance companies falling over and some unease about our and the world's general economic health. On the positive side we have full employment, record dairy prices, better weather, and the prospect that interest rates won't go up any more and may come down (see Sat Herald comments from ANZ economist) plus the likelihood that in 3 months time we will realise that world recession isn't happening - hopefully.

I suspect sales for August will be awful and that Sept won't be much better, but they could pick up a little as spring and summer arrive and the factors above come into play.

Prices will be flat at best and those who don't have to move probably won't sell as inflated prices go out the window. The market will shrink, but it won't go belly up.

Mid range houses will sell best. I already see a lot of shacks being dumped by nervous investors and those at the top end might be staying where they are rather than looking to move up in the property scale.

But some people have to move, life goes on and compared to the UK where I used to live I think NZers are a transient lot. I don't see the market dying.

[Glenn]

I find that Ray White analysis to be very creditable in terms of what will happen, but it is contradictory on one impt point.

.

Too right there, Contradictory to the point of being like the characters in Alice in wonderland.
How can you say the market will be flat then try and panic sellers to listing now before there is a flood of listing and the prices drop. Drop for your's but not eveyone elses.
Actually I can only but admire such a perfectly written bit of prose. Well done Ray White. Absoultely superb. If I was looking for a good marketer I could not think of a better person to put a good spin on any property.

[McDuck]

Morning all.

Who can say what the near future holds.

we are living in strange times.

Finance companies folding...

Big Dairy payouts....

The Reserve Bank adding liquidity...

And many more strange things to come over the next few weeks.

[Commercial Dan]

I'm sure there will be some interesting news coming out this week, both here and in the USA.

Also, I just spoke to one of Wellington's top Mortgage Brokers, they told me that things have been very slow since April and now it is really drying up. People are staying away and there is a real slump going on.

[Edinburgh]

We can always rely on CD to cheer us up.

I think it is too early to call a slump even if, as I predict, this month's sales figures are poor and probably next month's as well.

Unless the US goes into recession, I think things here will flatten out and no more.

[Edinburgh]

I was at several open homes yesterday. Reports are that this month has picked up and there certainly seemed to be a lot of people out and about. Warm, sunny day made a difference.

[Adman]

I am traditionally and investor but have recently qualified as an agent, I had one open home yesterday, 10 groups through, which is pretty good taffic. Nobody jumping out of their skin to make offers, though, and comments were generally non-committal. We are finding people are being more cautious, thinking carefully before making offers etc. I think it's difficult to imagine a general down-turn, unless we get further economic shocks (not out of the question), but I hope the market flattens right out for a year or three.

How's that for spin from a real estate agent (and investor)!?!?