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Home Loan Rates Head for 8pc

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  • Home Loan Rates Head for 8pc

    Hi Guys

    After reading this it makes those positive cash flow rental investments look more and more attractive:

    Home loan rates head for 8pc
    FRIDAY , 30 APRIL 2004

    By JAMES WEIR
    Home loan interest rates look set to rise to 8 per cent by the middle of the year, slowing the housing market, with fixed-term rates also on the way up, according to economists.

    Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard pushed up the official cash interest rate from 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent yesterday, and gave a strong hint that rates would rise again soon, possibly to 5.75 per cent in June. The latest rate rise is expected to feed through to floating mortgage rates, about 7.5 per cent at present at most of the big banks.

    On a $100,000 loan at 7.5 per cent, the fortnightly repayments are about $340. If floating rates go up to 8 per cent, the repayments will rise to $355 a fortnight.

    Bank of New Zealand chief economist Tony Alexander said rates were "under review" but the Reserve Bank intended bank lending rates to rise. Longer-term fixed rates were also rising and could be up 1 per cent in the year ahead, he said.

    If mortgage interest rates rose to 8 per cent by the middle of the year, it would hurt some borrowers "at the margin", Mr Alexander said.

    Overall, house prices could fall about 5 per cent by the middle of next year, in "a relatively small correction", affected by slowing migration and falling numbers of foreign language students.

    House prices rose almost 21 per cent in the year to March, according to recent Real Estate Institute figures.

    Real Estate Institute president Graeme Woodley said he did not think a small rise in floating rates to about 7.75 per cent would have much impact on the housing market. "But if we get over 8 per cent for the floating rate, then it would certainly have an effect," he said.

    The housing market had already "quietened" a little with slowing migration.

    Mr Alexander said there had also been a drop in foreign language students coming to New Zealand, which made the Auckland central city apartment market especially vulnerable.

    Westpac Bank chief economist Brendan O'Donovan said the last general house price fall followed the 1998 Asian financial crisis, when interest rates went above 10 per cent. That was not expected to happen this time.

    People who owned their own homes might see prices drift sideways for a few years, he said.

    But Mr O'Donovan agreed the Auckland apartment sector was susceptible to a "significant" price fall.
    I hope that all those with negatively geared properties have deep pockets.
    Regards
    "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

  • #2
    Its funny how they say things backwards. The cash rate will keep being put up until it slows down the housing market and people stop taking on more debt, and that isn't happening yet, its just moving around the country. If the buying frenzy keeps up, the rates could go quite high and really start to hurt, especially house prices in areas that have already peaked now.

    I can see (looking North-East ), double digit interest rates for deposits next year. Its nearly past time to decide if you are in for the long haul (it can feel like a very long haul at times waiting for the next cycle) or out at the peak and maybe get some good interest on your cash or cut back debt, and come back in later when things cool off. I've heard there is some foreigners interested in property in T.............

    Housing & construction has inflated 8.5% in the last year, wages only 3.5%. Watch for petrol, among other things to go up sharply due to the drop in the NZD.
    Either wages are going to go up, or house prices will need to come down.
    The government wants the house prices down, rather than wages up and a spiralling of inflation. IP investors & homeowners with large loans, and credit card debtors are going to take this on the nose eventually. Its that cycle starting in again.

    Cash could be king in a couple of years?

    just my musings, no crystal ball here, I'm just trying to play it right and would be interested to see how others see things panning out.
    Find The Trend Whose Premise Is False - Then Bet Against It

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    • #3
      Interesting Muppet...

      How are other people set up? I can weather rates up to about 9% before I go negative.
      You can find me at: Energise Web Design

      Comment


      • #4
        I could be using the wrong philosophy but I have being doing all my gearing calcs on 8.5% since I started my venture into looking at buying an IP.

        Gives a bit if fat.

        If I can get a place positvely or neutrally geared at that great. If teh interest rates are lower...bonus.. and the deals are out there.

        Lawrence
        How do you eat an Elephant?
        One Bite at a Time!! (Source: Spaceman)

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        • #5
          We are fixed on pretty much everything for another 2 years, so we can sit it out for now.

          cube
          DFTBA

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          • #6
            Like Cube we are pretty much all fixed as well, a minumum of 3 years and even upto 5 on some of our places. I just figured that according to my crystal ball the rates last year were fairly reasonable! So why not fix for a while?

            Sure it means forgoing some more profit if the rates dropped even further, but imho that seemed unlikely and in any case I prefer to know that my properties interest will be less than the rent for the next few years...

            On our first property in Rotorua we can handle %10 and still be positive

            On the two units in Rotorua we can handle %8.5

            On the new house in Kakaramea %11

            Cheers David
            New to property investing? See: Best PropertyTalk Threads for New and Old Investors And/Or:Propertytalk Wiki

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