On the BBC World Service this morning, there was a piece about the Yellowstone Park Super Volcano - an eruption of which is 40,000 years overdue and would be an 'extinction event'.

The geologist on the program explained that trying to predict geological events based on 50 years observation was like trying to predict stock market movements based on 1/10th second of data!

And what's more, he reckoned that, given enough 50 year chunks, it would be possible - imagine trying to trade options 10 times a second.

Happy speculating.