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  • Investing in the USA

    I'm opening a new thread as there's quite bit of discussion on US property investing here on PT, and I've got some experience in this area. I'm happy to chime in if it helps people out.

    I'm putting out an open invite for people to ask me questions. If you have specific questions, I can give specific answers. If I don't know, I can probably find out the answer. If I get swamped with a lot of questions in the thread or by PM, I apologize now if I can't reply in a timely manner... I'm really, really, really busy these days!

    Some background -- I'm a Canadian-born immigrant to NZ... my fiancee is from NZ, and we're back in Canada for a number of years. I've been over to the US probably in the neighbourhood of perhaps 500 - 600 times (never cared to keep track...) since about 1996. Over the course of the last 13 years I've been quite actively going to the US at various times. Prior to '96 I'd been over a good number of times, but at a much lower rate and I was usually going with the family or with a school group (I was just a kid). Again at a quick guess-timate, I think I've been to something like 30 - 35 out of 50 states at various times for various reasons. I've got a lot of friends in the US from times past, present, and hopefully more in the future.

    From first-hand experience, I've come to know a fair amount about their politics, economics, "face-to-face" culture (as compared to their media culture), etc. I'm really quite comfortable on the ground in the US. It's like my 2nd... no... 3rd... no... 4th home. (counting Canada, NZ, and Australia way back)

    Out of those 4 countries, the US is by far the most divergent from the British Commonwealth model of law, politics, and economics. It's a far more of a dog-eat-dog every-man-for-himself type marketplace, because that's what the underlying laws were designed to create.

    Understanding and playing by these rules allows you to do things that you just can't do in Commonwealth-based countries. In my view, these rules also contribute significantly to the massive and dramatic mood swings that the US economy is prone to, as it tries to balance raw, largely un-ballasted, shifts in Supply and Demand.

    If I can sum up the key economic difference in my own view;

    In the Commonwealth league, we tend to have laws that try to find and keep an even balance between the interests of the general population (socialism) and the interests of business and investors (capitalism). The US is much more slanted in favour of the interests of capitalism. (Just look at the whole fight at the moment over the concept of the universal healthcare as a prime example!) I personally tend to believe that this difference originates from the "Subjects of the Crown are to be protected by their Sovereign". The US, on the other hand, was a country envisioned and founded by capitalists with a specific intention to create a purely capitalist republic. Wealthy, educated, politically and economically powerful men drafted the Constitution to represent their particular view of how things should be run, and thus they set the economic playing field for the USA with a strong capitalist slant.

    So tying this all back to property --

    This sort of foundation for the overall marketplace gives rise to a property market where if you don't pay your mortgage, the bank has pretty close to unlimited and unfettered discretion on how, when, and for how much it will dispose of your house. In most provinces in Canada and all of NZ, lenders have to attempt to balance their interests with the interests of the soon-to-be former owner of the property. They must market the property openly to the public and secure as close to "fair market value" as possible... and paying any surplus above and beyond the bad debts back to the homeowner. (though I've never ONCE heard of a homeowner getting paid back their equity by a bank though! I'm also not surrounding myself with people who are losing their houses, either, so who knows...?)

    When you have unlimited discretion on how you dispose of valuable assets... you tend to make a lot of friends. Friends (private and corporate) with deep pockets who would like to make those pockets even deeper. This is why the US foreclosure with a sign on the lawn is more often than not a big waste of time. It's either a picked-over floor sweeping, or a house where the bank hopes to recover some extra money to help make up for the ones they sold in a bulk package of 50 houses taking a substantial loss on the value of their mortgage book. It's also too late to work with the homeowner to set up a short sale... the bank is in (mostly unregulated) control of the property. Short sales are also difficult, time consuming, and rarely successful (relatively speaking) to set up.

    Now... I don't mean to condescend with where I'm about to take this post -- I simply don't know the overall level of experience of all the people who may care to read this, and want to ensure I don't gloss over information that is critical for novice investors to understand, or experienced investors considering getting into the US. I say this with only the intention of reinforcing the standard caveats that every investor should know off by heart. Sooo -- before talking about all the upsides, I want to first talk about the less glamourous side of investing in the US (or anywhere or that matter) ie: doing your homework and laying a good, solid foundation to build your empire on! I'm not going to give only "the good half of the story", as I have experienced it, because the US is not some magical fantasy land somewhere over the rainbow where it's all sunshine, lollypops and there are puppies wagging their tails on every street corner. It can either be a great place to invest and make lot of money once you know the intricacies and the rules, or it can be a vicious beast that will chew you up and spit you out, keeping your shirt and shoes as souvenirs. Remember which way their playing field is slanted. It's still investing, and just like any other type of investment it requires a disciplined approach for success. So -- let me take a bit of the gloss off. (and hopefully not discourage...)

    Success in the US property market all comes down to a handful of things that are the same for property investing anywhere;

    A ) Local Knowledge is CRITICAL (I'm not that guy buying the Brooklyn Bridge or swampland in Florida! Always know exactly What and Where the property is, and all factors around it.)

    B) "Eyes & Ears on the ground" are CRITICAL (I have bought properties sight-unseen before, but I had trustworthy eyes look them over for me first... ALWAYS!)

    C) long term property management with integrity is CRITICAL (there are a fair number of fly-by-night property managers out there)

    D) being able to manage repairs and renos is CRITICAL (in truth, about 90% of properties you get at a discount WILL need work... and again, there are a lot of fly-by-night contractors and not a lot you can do if you get burned by one from half a world away.)

    E) running your numbers based on proven numbers (ie: actual rent being received NOW) or very conservative numbers is... you guessed it... CRITICAL!

    The most critical of all, not to downplay any of the others, because they're all deal-breakers, are Local Knowledge and "Eyes and Ears". To illustrate what I mean by local knowledge; there are areas where you might want to do "California stops" (ie: roll slowly through stop signs, but don't stop completely if there is no cross-traffic. it reduces the risk of getting car-jacked or robbed.) while just two or three streets away it can be perfectly safe, with stable or increasing property values and rents, and urban rejuvenation works taking place. In some cities it's literally a street-by-street type thing, and the lines between good and bad areas are often much sharper than in NZ where neighbourhoods tend to blur into each other, and property values change more gradually from area to area.

    The old saying "You don't have to invest near where you live because that is probably not be where the best deals are" is true enough -- definitely invest where the best deals are -- but never, ever, EVER invest blindly without honest eyes and ears on the ground to give you the critical info you need to know, or you're just gambling. You may as well go play the pokies if you invest without thoroughly investigating every property to this degree, because at least you can enjoy a cold beer while you lose all your money!

    Sorry that this isn't really all glorious optimistic hype and hyperbole... but that's just my off-the-cuff take on how to stay on the safer side for the most part. You can never afford to ignore the fundamental rules of good-old investing due diligence just because you're looking in a new area with somewhat different factors at play.

    I've taken the time, plus my years of circumstantial experience in the US, to set up relationships over a period of time. I've gotten to trust the people I now work with, heard what others in the industry have to say about them, and so on. I took it slow... lots of research then baby steps at first. There were lots of incidental problems that needed to be sorted out (as in any newly acquired property investment) -- tradespeople who weren't performing, etc. that would have been a nightmare if I didn't have the proper groundwork established first to handle those situations.

    I want to reiterate for emphasis that I investigated, researched, cross-confirmed, met with countless people (contractors, agents, lawyers, investors, etc) and so on... until I was comfortable putting a single dollar down on real estate in the US.

    Now -- if I haven't scared you off with my long-winded caveat -- I have to say that I haven't even touched on the benefits of the US market. Safety first though... as always. There's no need to get people all wound-up by only telling half the story.

    Unfortunately, the AWESOME side of investing in the US will have to wait though. ----- I've got plenty of other work to attend to that I've been putting off to write all this, and then a Maori kapa haka group are in town. Our local chapter of Kiwi Expats Association (KEA) is hosting them tonight. Should be great!

    I will leave you with one teaser about the upside though. With the right sort of deal you can get 30% - 40% gross yields that leave you with 12% - 40% pre-tax NET cashflow (real money you can SPEND) after expenses and allowances for vacancy and maintenance are deducted. That's all I'll say for now though!

    To be continued when I have more time...

    If anyone else here currently invests in the US would like to chime in as well, the floor is always open...
    Last edited by CanucKiwi; 27-08-2009, 11:03 AM.

  • #2
    It's good for customers that price of real estate property is being decreased day by day. But it is very complex to buy a property in USA. You have to maintain tons of formalities. Are you investing in real estate. Then you have chosen a good time.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by devidfox View Post
      It's good for customers that price of real estate property is being decreased day by day. But it is very complex to buy a property in USA. You have to maintain tons of formalities. Are you investing in real estate. Then you have chosen a good time.
      Hi devidfox,

      It's not necessarily good (or true) that prices are decreasing day by day. Real estate is a very region-specific thing... hence "location, location, location" being the three rules of Real Estate.

      There are some areas that have stayed steady and some areas that have increased in value in the US over the past 2 years, believe it or not. There are places where the City is implementing rejuvenation plans and gentrifying older parts of the city, as well as plenty of private investors doing the same.

      It's not complicated or difficult to buy in the USA, and the formalities are no more difficult than any professional investor in NZ or Aussie would normally do anyway. What can be difficult, I'll grant you, is making the right connections to find the true bargains. They're there, but they're not the one's you'll see advertised. (Any property that needs to be advertised in the USA right now is NOT going to be a bargain!)

      I am investing in real estate in the US to a significant level relative to my overall portfolio, and I'm over there at least once or twice a month and in touch with my project manager as often as needed. We talk anywhere from several times a day during the more intensive parts of the projects... to hardly ever, like now, since the properties are just quietly doing their thing and spitting out cash prior to us starting our next round. Good, trustworthy, local hands-on management is the key... having a team you can put in charge and know it will get done.

      It's very much possible when you look at it as a business. It's no more or less difficult than owning any other business and having a shift manager to run the show when you (the owner) are not there.

      -- Edit -- Actually, I think it's easier than running any other business... for the following reasons:
      1. You know where your next "sale" is going to come from -- your tenants pay you every month.
      2. Once a property is running, there's very, VERY little to do on any of them... just collect the rent and have the manager keep an eye on the property once a month. Very few hours need to go into it.
      3. Huge margins... the cashflow is huge in the US compared to NZ, Australia, or Canada, so it pays equal returns to owning many average franchise businesses, but it's so much less work-intensive
      4. Security - you own the property at the end of the day, nobody's going to come steal the whole thing off the foundations, unlike a store where your merchandise is subject to theft.

      If you're interested in knowing more specifics, feel free to ask.
      Last edited by CanucKiwi; 09-09-2009, 12:25 PM. Reason: further thoughts

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by CanucKiwi View Post
        Hi devidfox,

        It's not necessarily good (or true) that prices are decreasing day by day. Real estate is a very region-specific thing... hence "location, location, location" being the three rules of Real Estate.

        There are some areas that have stayed steady and some areas that have increased in value in the US over the past 2 years, believe it or not. There are places where the City is implementing rejuvenation plans and gentrifying older parts of the city, as well as plenty of private investors doing the same.

        It's not complicated or difficult to buy in the USA, and the formalities are no more difficult than any professional investor in NZ or Aussie would normally do anyway. What can be difficult, I'll grant you, is making the right connections to find the true bargains. They're there, but they're not the one's you'll see advertised. (Any property that needs to be advertised in the USA right now is NOT going to be a bargain!)

        I am investing in real estate in the US to a significant level relative to my overall portfolio, and I'm over there at least once or twice a month and in touch with my project manager as often as needed. We talk anywhere from several times a day during the more intensive parts of the projects... to hardly ever, like now, since the properties are just quietly doing their thing and spitting out cash prior to us starting our next round. Good, trustworthy, local hands-on management is the key... having a team you can put in charge and know it will get done.

        It's very much possible when you look at it as a business. It's no more or less difficult than owning any other business and having a shift manager to run the show when you (the owner) are not there.

        -- Edit -- Actually, I think it's easier than running any other business... for the following reasons:
        1. You know where your next "sale" is going to come from -- your tenants pay you every month.
        2. Once a property is running, there's very, VERY little to do on any of them... just collect the rent and have the manager keep an eye on the property once a month. Very few hours need to go into it.
        3. Huge margins... the cashflow is huge in the US compared to NZ, Australia, or Canada, so it pays equal returns to owning many average franchise businesses, but it's so much less work-intensive
        4. Security - you own the property at the end of the day, nobody's going to come steal the whole thing off the foundations, unlike a store where your merchandise is subject to theft.

        If you're interested in knowing more specifics, feel free to ask.
        Hey CanucKiwi,
        so many thanks for your detailed clarification. I am willing to talk to you in some points.

        1.You said price of property is not decreasing. It's only the location based up and down in the market. I agree. but as the economy of USA is in a critical position you must have to consider that the buying capability of people is decreasing. so if you demand as like previous would you get usual response?

        2.I don't know how easy or tough procedure you have to maintain in NZ or Aussie. But to me completing all formalities in USA seems so complex. But i agree with you in the point of building right connections.

        3.You can get connected with your project manager by cellphone, right? that's good for you but is it possible for everybody?

        4.The facilities that made the business easier you said are absolutely right. As you are getting good margins that's very good for you. Hope this will increase day by day.

        I have a personal question. what is your main business?
        Hope to get more knowledge about real estate business.

        take care. Keep in touch.

        Comment


        • #5
          HI,
          I'm tired of the low returns in NZ, and looking at USA. Sacramento, Ca in particular.
          Would you advise setting up a LLC (limited liabilty company), and getting a tax number? As some say I should get both before investing...
          There's 3 bed houses there that look like 20%NET!!!
          THANKS

          Comment


          • #6
            Hi Hillbilly,

            @devidfox - Just before I get started, yes, I *am* replying to your post, but it's more detailed than this answer and is taking me a little more time to write and I've had a very fully plate lately. Will be back to that shortly when I have time.

            Yes, the returns in the USA can be much better than NZ. That was actually one of the big reasons for my return to Canada. I thought Canada had better returns than NZ, so I went looking for the greener grass. Got here to find out that the returns definitely look better, until I found out that 1) exorbitant property management fees will absorb ALL your profit, and 2) tenancy laws are very, very slanted in favour of the tenant.

            So -- having turned up another dud, I continued to look for the fabled "fountain of cashflow" and found it in the US, where I'd always heard it was, but wasn't yet willing to look. Fortunately, I've lived pretty much right on the border all my life (except while living in NZ and Australia, of course), and already have over a decade of experience in some top areas which happen to be very cashflow positive, and yet have very stable property values.

            Thoughts on California...

            I've been to Cali many times, but don't know anything about California's property market, except that California, Arizona and Florida have been some of the states hardest hit by falling property values. If they are not the "3 biggest droppers", they are certainly near the top of the list. I won't advise for or against any area that I don't know personally... so I can't comment on Sacramento in particular. All I know is that Sacramento is in Cali which was hit HARD by the credit crunch. I'm in the middle of a lot of investing groups, and lately I haven't heard any rumours of US or CDN investors going big-time in to Cali for cashflow. I think cautious people are waiting for the dust to settle a little before proceeding down that way. Everyone who bought in to the "it's-rising-so-fast-I-can't-possibly-lose" market leading up to late 07 / early 08 has pretty much been been baked to a crisp in the sunbelt.

            Look for cashflow hot spots that are not making headlines...

            Don't mean to take the gloss off your California orange, Hillbilly... just advising strong caution in the "sunbelt" states. Huge booms and huge crashes happen in emotionally driven markets. I personally aim for the stable "economic fundamentals" driven markets that never make the news. They don't boom... they don't bust... they just keep on keeping on, spitting out reliable cashflow month after month. Because of their economic stability, the areas that I'm buying in (Western New York State) have actually appreciated during all the US turmoil... less than 1% per year, but I'll take that any day over -35% per year. I tend to think the value growth is because foreigners are flooding into the area that I'm also working in to buy up the stable investments - they're bringing with them the money that they might have otherwise have invested into the boom/bust areas. Still - nobody's over-bidding on property, so it's not getting out of hand.

            "Sunbelt State" warning aside, I'm cranking out 15%-22% net pre-tax cashflow properties all day long in my main territory (Western NY). Sometimes the super-high returns that you see will be in the hardcore slums, and you're dealing with the lowest-of-the-low tenants... so it's a false return. You have to know which streets and areas to avoid to get a bankable ROI, rather than a theoretical ROI where, sure, you've got a lease agreement, but enforcing it and collecting rent is impossible because nobody who knows the area is willing to manage those properties. (One gun-in-the-face incident is enough for most licensed rental managers to drop you as an investor.)

            Local knowledge is critical...

            A 2nd-degree associate of mine -- I haven't met her, but we share a mutual business partner -- bought a property that has a net pre-tax rental cashflow of around 160% - 175% per year. (Yes, the house would have fully paid itself off in about 6 months... a VERY rare buy and involved a lot of luck... but worthwhile, obviously, despite some "inherited tenant" trouble she had... I hear it's sorted out now though.) This sort of thing is possible, but you have to REALLY be set up with a good team. Management is critical. Sure, you CAN buy this stuff off an auction list from anywhere in the world, but you won't be able to get any sort of return off it (or be able to tell if the house is a burned-out shell) unless you have trustworthy, on-the-ground team members to steer you clear of the disaster zones and toward the cashflow goldmines. Like I said - it can be a street-by-street thing, and there's no substitute for local knowledge. Before any of us (my associates) go to auction, we research the areas we *already* know for about a month and a half. We drive the streets daily... look at about a thousand houses each, talk with residents, neighbours, local authorities, etc. Those who do any less than this are in for a whole world of hurt in my opinion. For me, it's worth the time, because I'm just across the border and the money is worth it... I know people on the ground and I have developed a solid team of investors and professionals around me.

            Join a trustworth local "dog pack" if you're going hunting...

            Out-of-state investors who didn't do their research before buying are the ones losing houses by the truckload to investors like us who do our homework. We can see this based on our title searches. In every case I can think of, the prices we're buying for won't even cover the mortgages owing.

            The thing I keep saying is that the USA is a dog-eat-dog market in a way that most Kiwis and Canadians have no concept of. The dogs that prepare for the hunt properly are eating like kings right now, and the lazy dogs who don't do their homework (or have been told that there's no homework to do) are on the menu. US laws do not offer much protection to those that don't protect themselves is what it comes down to. Getting into a trustworthy team is essential to survival... teamwork has been critical to my success and safety in the US. I started out slowly, with small amounts of money and went from there, once I felt comfortable with the people I was working with. There are lots of friendly investors groups around the USA where members share contacts, share information, discuss tenancy issues, and so on in order to help everyone become more profitable... and there's NO "pitchy" sales agenda. (As soon as there's a high-priced hyped-up sales agenda -- RUN! Your best interests are clearly not at heart. There are lots of no-hype mentors offering the same sort of information for a lot less, and often they're far more accountable than the "loud & expensive" salespeople.)

            How to get set up...

            Now that I've probably scared you off -- but only with a mind to keeping you and any other readers safe...

            Yes, you will want to set up an LLC. LLC's are NOT nation-wide... they are State-specific, though they can have inter-state holdings. (As I understand, an LLC in, say, Nevada can own an LLC in New York State for example. Get specific legal advice on this, as the rules can vary widely from State to State.) Once you've got an LLC in the state you want to invest in, you'll need to get an ETIN (Employer Tax Identification Number) from the IRS. It can also be called an EIN (Employer Identification Number) by some. They will require you to send your first born child to them as a security deposit. (just kidding! haha!) You will probably also have to register with the State tax department, depending on the State in question. I believe the State Tax Departments will get the info on my LLCs from the IRS, and/or the lawfirm that I set them up with, but again, check with your State-specific professionals on that.

            Keep separate LLC's for different purposes. (Like having a trading trust and an LAQC in NZ.) I have one for trading and one for holding, and will start more holding companies once I get enough properties to justify it. Everything stays compartmentalized that way.

            Public Enemy probably gave out the best advice in the 80's; "Don't... don't... don't... don't believe the hype!"

            All I advise is caution over a "Wow! I hear I can get rich quick!" approach. The money will come quickly enough, and in a big way, as long as you play it safe and keep your wits about you. Apply the same rules and due diligence as you would when investing in anything.

            Any questions, I'm happy to help.

            best,
            CK

            get back to you soon, devidfox.




            Originally posted by Hillbilly View Post
            HI,
            I'm tired of the low returns in NZ, and looking at USA. Sacramento, Ca in particular.
            Would you advise setting up a LLC (limited liabilty company), and getting a tax number? As some say I should get both before investing...
            There's 3 bed houses there that look like 20%NET!!!
            THANKS

            Comment


            • #7
              USA Houses

              THANKYOU for your reply.
              Will try to find Sacramento Property Investor groups, as you suggest, so I can find whether the 20% net returns are real.
              I see a 3 bed house there for $49,900(asking) with a long term tenant in place returning $13,000/yr... Property tax $2000.
              The last time this house sold (researched on Zillow.com) it was $160,000, so down to nearly a quarter!

              Comment


              • #8
                Sacramento is #8 on the top 10 "Homeowner Vacancy Rates" list... ouch!

                Originally posted by Hillbilly View Post
                THANKYOU for your reply.
                Will try to find Sacramento Property Investor groups, as you suggest, so I can find whether the 20% net returns are real.
                I see a 3 bed house there for $49,900(asking) with a long term tenant in place returning $13,000/yr... Property tax $2000.
                The last time this house sold (researched on Zillow.com) it was $160,000, so down to nearly a quarter!

                Hi Hillbilly... I just found this purely by chance while doing some research online. Sacramento is #8 on the top 10 "Homeowner Vacancy Rates" list... ouch!

                There's a reason why that house is down to $50,000 from it's previous "value" of $160,000. Remember that during the boom there were a LOT of people paying ridiculous prices that the places never justified to begin with. There were also people over-financing properties every day... sell from one company to another (or one family member with a different name to another) at an inflated price, and finance it based on the sale price. Classic mortgage fraud.

                I've bought properties that were involved with mortgage fraud before -- it's so obvious when you look at the title history and see that every 2-3 years a property has been sold back and forth between two parties (or their spouses). *please note! I was NOT involved in the mortgage fraud! haha! I bought the property from the bank after the fraudsters had taken the money and let the mortgage fall over on the bank.*

                I'd say a combination of all that is a large contributing factor of why this property is down to 1/3 of what it was last sold for. It was probably only ever worth $75,000 - $100,000 in a "historically adjusted market" that removes the anomalous bubble-pricing effect. If mortgage fraud was involved... there's no telling -- it could have only ever been worth $60,000 in a historically adjusted market scenario, and someone is sitting on the beach with $100,000 of the bank's money right now, leaving the mortgage to fall over.

                Like I said -- I try to avoid any area that makes headlines - whether good or bad. Good headlines are great until they turn bad, and human nature dictates that sooner or later they will. The bigger the high, the lower the low seems to be the trend across the board. I just want cashflow... as boring as that may sound. Nobody writes headline articles about the guy or girl who bought an awesome cashflow property. (Is it really boring though, to live a life of being able to choose to do anything you want any time you want, because you're always getting paid whether you work or not, whether the market is up or down??? If you ask me, cashflow investing is only boring in theory! I guess if you like the rush of the heady boom times and the panic attacks and sleepless nights of the bust times that come with riding the market roller coaster, you should invest according to headlines. Not me tho.)

                Over the 5 years leading up to the 2007 reversal, all you had to do in Vegas to make money was leave the casino and go buy a house. *ANY* house... in Vegas, California, Arizona, or Florida. Anything in the sunbelt would do. And everyone was doing it. Sunbelt real estate was the Pet Rock and Rubic's Cube of the mid-2000's. Now this is what all those people are dealing with...

                The main "super-regions" of the US typically are broken down like this:
                South = (for "sunbelt" of course!)
                Midwest
                Pacific Northwest
                North East

                You'll notice that in both Homeowner Vacancy and Rental Vacancy, that the South is REALLY taking a beating, and carry 60% of the spots in each list. Of course, since there are 4 super-regions, you'd expect to see an even distribution giving 25% of the pain to each area. The Pacific Northwest and North East are particularly spared from trouble. (Thought of course not entirely... they simply aren't ranking in the top 10 hardest hit other than Springfield, MA.)

                The following was found on CNBC, and uses info from the U.S. Census Bureau based on Homeowner Vacancy Rates for the 75 Largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas for the Fourth Quarter of 2008

                check out.... (since I can't post URL's yet... I can't make it a link for you... grrr!)
                cnbc.com/id/29350033/

                US Homeowner Vacancy Top 10:
                #10(tie) Minneapolis, MN: 4.0% (midwest)
                #10(tie) Detroit, MI: 4.0% (north - "motor city" GM and Ford HQ's)
                #8(tie) Springfield, MA: 4.2% (northeast)
                #8(tie) Sacramento, CA: 4.2%
                #6(tie) Cincinnati, OH: 4.3% (midwest)
                #6(tie) Atlanta, GA: 4.3%
                #5 Tulsa, OK: 4.5% (midwest)
                #3(tie) Riverside, CA: 4.7%
                #3(tie) Las Vegas, NV: 4.7%
                #2 Greensboro, NC: 5.9%
                #1 Orlando, FL: 7.3%

                Check out:
                cnbc.com/id/29350086


                US Rental Vacancy Top 10:

                #10 Austin, TX: 15.8%
                #9 Las Vegas, NV: 16.0%
                #8 Atlanta, GA: 16.1%
                #7 Cleveland, OH: 16.8% (midwest)
                #6 Indianapolis, IN: 17.1% (midwest)
                #5 Phoenix, AZ: 19.0%
                #4 Memphis, TN: 19.6%
                #3 Detroit, MI: 19.9% (north "motor city" GM and Ford HQ's)
                #2 Dayton, OH: 21.7% (midwest)
                #1 Richmond, VA: 23.7%

                So again, I urge serious caution when looking into those sorts of areas. The road ahead will not be paved with capital gains + cashflow gold for a long, long time yet. Cashflow yes, CG's... not in a big, big way for another 20 years when my generation (baby boom echo) hits our late 40's and early 50's and starts having midlife crises. (I predict a mild "early midlife crisis" surge in 6-10 years though.) Then again, with all our parents' generation tipping over about then, who can really say? There will be a lot of vacant property again. In 7-10 years I'll be putting my money on retirement facilities either way. haha!

                The "Third Wave" of foreclosures is coming... and it will be the tsunami of them all. "The pipeline" has a huge backlog pressure surge that has built up during the moratorium, and it's starting to work it's way through. I'm personally getting ready to cash in when it lets loose! (well... I should say "keep cashing in" but that doesn't have the same ring to it.) ... as always, in the places that don't ever make the news because they tend to stay stable on balance.

                I'm also not buying anything that you'll see for sale on a website or with a street sign. By the time a house gets to the open market these days, it has been picked over more than a french fry thrown amongst a pack of hungry seagulls.
                Last edited by CanucKiwi; 16-09-2009, 05:47 PM. Reason: clarifying a point and cleaning up layout

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                • #9
                  there is a massive over supply of vacant properties and properties for sell at the moment, IMHO it can take 2-5 years until any growth will be sustainable.

                  There is no need to rush in to buying Bargain at the moment as it will take time until they all gone.
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                  • #10
                    Hi Orkibi,

                    Agreed -- it will be 2-5 years until we see the US start to grow again in property values. I'm personally feeling like strong growth probably won't be seen until closer to the 5 year mark... maybe even 6-7.

                    I do respectfully disagree that there's no need to rush, though. When there's good thing going that is guaranteed to eventually end, there's never a moment to waste. I don't want to end up regretting the opportunity lost, like the days of finding actual Net cashflow in NZ.

                    Since I'm not investing for capital gains right now, I really don't worry too much about the "no growth for many years" thing at all. I'm only using this opportunity to pick up as much property as I can -- essentially I'm HOPING that there's no growth for 2-5 years. Everything I buy pays me monthly, so I don't want the bargain-buying season to end. About an hour ago I got an email from the property manager telling me how much money he just deposited into the rent account today. That's what I'm investing for.

                    I'm happy to take a 15%-40% ROI for life day in and day out, whether times are good or bad and do my roller coaster riding at the amusement park.

                    There is a lot of talk of vacancy in the rental market, but when you've got solid management on the ground there are a LOT of things you can do to make yourself more-or-less immune to this problem. First of all -- don't buy where vacancy rates are astronomical in the first place, or where "low" vacancy rates are based on some superficial attraction in the area (vacation spots, etc -- this is the key reason for the sunbelt value collapse).

                    I would be concerned about rental vacancy if I owned rentals in Detroit, for example. (Detroit is, of course, making headlines in this respect... refer to my thoughts about that.) Instead of taking the tabloid headline approach to picking or avoiding areas, I always buy based on economic fundamentals -- money has to be flowing into the area for legitimate, ongoing, sustainable reasons. Is it a stable and boring work-a-day city? Yes. Ok, give it a big tick in that box.

                    Once you've bought in a economic fundamentals-driven area, you can do a lot on the marketing front to get attention, and you can do a lot on the house to make it more attractive to tenants. Honestly, we have a waiting list of tenants on our books.

                    The national average at the moment, as well as the market I'm investing in reports an average "10% vacancy". We have 0%, and I sleep very well at night knowing that we can maintain that, or at worst a slight increase.

                    Key reasons for our 0% vacancy, and why I'm confident that low vacancy is sustainable in any market;

                    - Our places are rented out well in advance of an expected vacancy to the best tenants we can find. We have literally been standing in the driveways of a couple house that we were renovating discussing next steps in the reno plan, and people have walked up to us right off the street asking if they can apply to rent from us. They know we do a good job on the properties, they recognize our manager's rental-application phone number (there's a sign in the window of every property AS we're renovating it) and they will ditch their old landlord to move into one of our properties. Of course we still screen everyone very carefully... when people are lining up for your houses, you get your choice of tenant.

                    - We get government-guaranteed rent (social assistance clients on low incomes) and full security deposits that is sent directly to us every month; the money never goes into the tenant's hands. If we lay a formal complaint against a bad social assistance tenant and can verify our claim, they could stand to lose their financial assistance FOREVER, and they know that... so they play by the rules.

                    - The 10% vacancy is not across the board for all properties -- in my view, 9 out of 10 vacant houses in our area seem to be the low-low-low end "slum-lorded" stuff that hasn't been renovated or even tidied up in 20 years or more, and the landlord doesn't care... also low-end high rise apartment buildings with vacant units count in that score as well. All of these things are due to failure to buy in the right area (buying a falsely high yield), and failures of management. A bad area can lead to a failure of management, because good managers won't serve you in bad areas.

                    - Vacancy is HUGELY mitigated by good management and people skills. Treating tenants like human beings, and letting them know that they're respected is not "rocket surgery". Giving them a small but appropriate gift on the anniversary of their tenancy, or even just a call to ask if the place needs any minor work... do all the switches, faucets and door knobs work properly, etc. but still drawing a firm line for the "I want I want..." tenants. [example: I've even seen one tenant's son high-five our property manager when we went around together. (it was another investor's property, but I was with him that day on our way to see a bunch of other houses). They're glad to see him show up... they're glad to give him their share of the rent. He knows it's always a professional relationship... but a good manager makes your rental customers feel truly valued and thus they stay.]

                    - If times ever get REALLY, REALLY bad, and we start having trouble getting calls from quality prospects (which would definitely be the opposite of the reality so far), given that our Net Yield is 15% on our lowest-yielding properties, we can still cut the rent by as much as 33% and still be clearing a Net 10% spendable cashflow. On others where our Net Yield is currently more like 30%, if we're forced to cut rent by 33% and accept a 20% Net Yield, yeah it's a pain, but we're not dying or anything! Not saying we'd have to go that far, but we could, and still have our heads well, well above water financially speaking.

                    In contrast, if I cut the rent by 1/3 on any of my NZ properties, I'd be bankrupt in about a month! Even a 10% cut would make for a seriously uncomfortable situation.

                    If I sound emphatic and enthusiastic, it's because I am! I'm in a rush to make some absolutely MASSIVE piles of hay while the sun shines. I'm passionate about property investing and I'm loving every single minute of it! (In case that doesn't already show through in my posts... haha!)

                    There will be a day when this once-in-a-century opportunity is going, going, gone. The US government is throwing everything it can at putting an (indirect) end to this opportunity by fixing their economy. Eventually, things will turn around and I would like to be sitting on a couple hundred properties by then, rather than a few left-over scraps I scrambled for at the end. When the wave of strong economic times returns, then I might start to think about what capital gains can do for me... or I'll just raise the rents and not eat the goose that lays the golden eggs.

                    How quickly could this be over? All it would *really* take is for the US to increase it's immigration volume sufficiently, and I think it might only take about 12-24 months of opening the flood gates a smidgen to have a large enough population influx to soak up the property oversupply and send prices back up again. There are billions of people who would love to have a shot at a life in America. Of course, huge immigration is potentially fraught with other problems, but you can be sure it's an idea that has been tabled as at least a small part of the solution.

                    Another reason to get into more property ASAP is the coming wave of inflation that I believe we will see. Governments around the world have, and still are, pouring massive resources into their economies. Ordinarily, massive amounts of liquid capital available at such low interest rates would have huge inflationary pressure. Once the global economy turns around, it will have booster rockets attached, and governments will then be doing everything they can to haul all those loose dollars back in. Financial policies of governments often have slow reaction times in the market though, and they can't move too quickly (huge overnight interest rate jumps) or too suddenly without warning either. This means the recovery will come swiftly, but efforts to cool down the overheated recovery will take some time to kick in. Real estate and gold are two fantastic inflation-protected asset classes, but gold doesn't pay me a return every day simply to own it.

                    The way I see it... good times, bad times, low inflation, high inflation, any which way I'll win in property. I don't have to worry if I'm wrong in my inflation pick, or whatever. If I'm wrong... I win (cashflow), if I'm right... I win bigger (cashflow and capital gains). *shrug*

                    (The only place I lose, and everyone has problem in every investment class, is in how tax rules never account for the fact that inflation is a big part of your capital gain, even though you can't to spend inflation at the grocery store!)

                    As long as my Net Yield stays above 10% and vacancy stays at 0%, or relatively low, I have a HUGE amount of buffer to work with in all respects. Even if I had to deal with a 10% vacancy on a 15% cashflow, I'm still making 13.5% Net Yeild on my weakest performers.... so forget dropping the rent by 33%.

                    As I said, I respectfully disagree that there's no need to rush... I'm doing a LOT of rushing right now so I can do a lot of relaxing later.
                    Procrastination in the most critical moment for action won't help me reach my goals.

                    Of course, for "upward market only" investors looking for capital gains, this *is* the time to sit on your hands. No disrespect at all to those who choose that strategy -- it may very well be my strategy one day too. I simply prefer to be an investor for all seasons at the moment because I feel I have more control of my life that way.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      THANKS for Info Canuc Kiwi. You are in the right place at the Right time...I like your real examples, of real properties.
                      We bought in Rotorua in a similar depressed market-$40k for a house that netted 20%.
                      It's now triple price so we have had BOTH cashflow, and capital gain. Those that buy now may have NEITHER.
                      Sorting out boring stuff-Like does a Nevada LLC (company) pay less tax than a California LLC? And is there no Capital Gains Tax if I have a company with an overseas owner? Easy questions if I can find right people to ask...
                      Not so many foreclosures at moment they say.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Thanks for your info on investing in the Usa. I am intending to go there in a month or 2. Just a question on finance avaliability. I believe it is next to impossible to get a mortgage without a social security number is this the case? I am going to bring over around $us 300,000 and buy maybe 3 houses in a llc I will set up. Do you think a bank may give me mortgages as it is a company with multiple rental property income streams.?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Hi Ben,

                          Mortgages... unfortunately... are a no-fly zone right now for non-residents of the USA if you're looking to the banks. We've been trying to crack that one open for quite some time, to no avail.

                          You can look at private lenders (sometimes called "hard money"), but be prepared for them to ask for 2-3% up front, and 15% interest... plus 3 months interest penalty for early repayment. We haven't because... well, 15% net yield - 15% interest = more of what I've already got in NZ + a business trip to the USA!

                          My business partners and I have several LLC's and we can't get finance. Even if we have a US resident as a member of the LLC, they won't look at it. The current rule (which can change at any moment, of course, when they realize that it's totally KILLING their property values) is "No Lending To Non-Residents!". Doesn't matter if your LLC has 10,000 Americans and 1 non-resident... no soup for you!

                          Your options are to: Get a US partner you REALLY REALLY REALLY trust... they hold the property in an LLC, and you do a Joint Venture with the LLC, and have the JV agreement registered as a lien or caveat on title (this will probably vary by state). We haven't gone down this path because we're not desperate for mortgages. We start off with the assumption of 0% leverage right from the start, so our deals and yields aren't hinged on getting finance, or getting a specific rate. If we do, it's just icing on an already-sweet cake.

                          Cash is king more than ever. Everyone I know, myself included, is investing 100% cash (well, other than our US-citizen friends of course). We're getting 15% - 40% yields with a 0% LVR, so if at any time we're able to finance the properties, even to say, 50% LVR at 5% interest, we'll be looking at around 25% - 75% Net cash-on-cash yield, which is nothing to complain about.

                          They used to have LOTS of finance options for foreigners, until the whole banking melt-down. Now they're xenophobic towards anyone who wants to borrow money... it was one of the responses that they came up with in their moment of panic.

                          Maybe the plan is to discourage foreigners from buying, so that half the country isn't owned by overseas landlords. If that's the agenda, it's working to keep *some* people out -- namely those who can't adapt their thinking to buying 100% cash, which is hilarious to me, because "all cash" is the way 99.9% of investments other than property work every single day (you've got Share Options, and you can margin Forex and Shares, but how many "nest-eggers" are really doing that sort of risky stuff?). Those who recognize that the opportunity is so unimaginably bigger than this one temporary obstacle of "no mortgages" are undaunted.

                          One day finance WILL return (it will have to if the US is to be able to grow again and have any institutional foreign investment). When it does, overnight we foreign investors will be able to (at least) double our portfolios and cashflows, or buy our dream homes on the beach with tax-free money that other people are paying back. (I'd probably never go over 50% LVR myself, just to know that I'll never have to worry about losing it all.)

                          Interesting anecdote: We were originally declined for SECURED credit cards even! You know -- the ones where you give $500 to the bank, and they give you a credit limit of $500. No deal! Don't want to know you! My business partner persisted and finally got a hold of someone with the authority to make a decision and she (some level of manager) agreed that it was ridiculous and worked out a secured credit card for him. I wouldn't be surprised if he had to put down $1,000 to get a $500 credit limit though.

                          Where were you looking at going to? I'd be happy to show you around our areas, if you're interested in a guided tour. I can also introduce you to the management team and make sure you'll be looked after. "Money follows the management" is the saying.

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                          • #14
                            Where to go is the question Ive been trying to sort out for the last 2 months. I heard of unfinished new homes going cheap(28 000) in Orlando, where you finish them off for say 20 000 and rent them out. Also Las vegas appeals as it was once the fastest growing city in the USA, although this may not now be the case, but may again be once the credit crunch and property inventories have cleared. There are apparently land constraints such as lakes, mountains reserves etc that may limit expansion. This together with the high growth rate returning and exceptionally low current prices may lead to great capital growth over the next 10 years and also a healthly rent cashflow in the meantime.

                            I was not so keen on the north as I heard of costly vacancies where pipes freeze or furnaces need replacing but am keeping an open mind as to where to invest. Thank you for the offer of a tour , just yet I am not sure if I will venture north. At present I am thinking of Orlando-Houston -Vegas and maybe San Diego although it may be too dear for decent rental cashflow.

                            Thanks for info on mortgages, like you say there is nothing wrong with 100% cash , just those 5% USA mortgages would be great if foreigners could get them.

                            Regards Ben

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                            • #15
                              Disapointed to see even canadians cant get loans, was hoping to swing off that to buy , (myself canadian born, kiwi bred). So what area you recommend to invest in, and whose a good property manger and real estate agent to start getting some ground work done before flying over!

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