S#%ts going to hit the fan.

[JBM]

Surely the government are not that thick that they can’t work all this out. NZ residential investors are getting the crap kicked out of them.

Hows this for a concept?
Auckland University economist Robert MacCulloch meanwhile warns banks and other large institutions may start purchasing property directly, rather than handing out mortgages.

This has already begun happening in the USA and Britain, he says, where it was reported Lloyds aims to be renting out 50,000 homes by 2031. SUPPLIED
Auckland University professor of economics Robert MacCulloch says banks may well become direct buyers of residential property.
“The big fish are thinking: why should we let this first home buyer buy something which they are going to double their money on in the next five years? The banks are thinking: why don’t we double our money on it?” MacCulloch says.

“They are thinking: we should have bought the place instead of them and just rented it to them.”

There’s very little that can be done to stop the buy-up if it starts, MacCulloch says.

Thats pretty disgusting if NZ banks end up becoming major landlords ..esp as they are mostly Aussie owned

[Beginner1]

It is real now, it is hitting to small centers like Tauranga.

I have been tracking properties in Mount and Papamoa for years and number of properties in the market has tripled. I live in mount and people say mount is immune, it surely is not..

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/owner-prepares-for-250000-loss-on-papamoa-bargain-43508

The owners paid $1.3million for above property and they even had above article on oneroof almost 2months ago. No offers even with 0.5million discounts. That is 40% off what they ve paid 18 months ago.

I was thinking of buying couple more rentals but postponed till mid next year. I agree market may stabalize with national back in power, but it will stall for further 5 years.

[chook]

YES MUCH MORE TO COME IMHO

As we know NZD'ers have a Love affair with Property debt be dammed .. well the reality won't be pretty for many .... and those that think RBNZ will just smash rates down to help out all the ticked up kiwis ... yeah right .. Aussie has just turned face and is now lifting rates higher same for many nations .. we turn around now and drop hard so will our dollar and not sure if many know but we are an ever increasing trade deficits( we spend more as a nation that we export and make) would head even higher which with are costs of living crisis would only increase...... petrol to $4 anyone ??.... then we will have an issue of our credit rating as we borrow much of our funds from overseas commercial / central banks

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300...rating-at-risk

Ratings agency Standard & Poors has warned that New Zealand’s credit rating could be reduced if the current account deficit does not improve and government interest costs rise substantially to more than 10% of revenues.

The deficit hit $2.8 billion in six months to the end of December, which was $39 million more than forecast.

Core Crown tax revenue was $375 million or 0.7% below forecast at $54.5b, while core Crown expenses were $411 million, or 0.7%, above forecast at $60.5b.


NZ's Govt debt is currently growing at over $60M per day - that is it spends $50M more than it 'earns'.!!

Yes intensifying daily, weekly..

Few understand this, most have no idea what is going on..

[donna]

^^ That’s scary - however some experts (in that discussion you’ve quoted) say we shouldn’t worry about Govt debt. More damage is done by restricting borrowing especially to businesses that need investment to improve productivity.

cheers
Donna

[JBM]

Reposting comment from another thread


"A property seminar I was at the weekend had a Ray White representative speaking and he said there is real time pain for the Auckland home owners currently, A couple who got caught up in the buying frenzy in 2021, They bought an Auckland property for 2.4m and have to sell due to pressure on their mil plus mortgage, they will now have to take a 600k loss as the top offer they had was 1.8m. Now Thi is happening all over Auckland as recent home buyers wake up and smell what the RBNZ was cooking. Some stress on the way this year for sure."

How international market forces affect NZ property - PropertyTalk.com

YES MUCH MORE TO COME IMHO

As we know NZD'ers have a Love affair with Property debt be dammed .. well the reality won't be pretty for many .... and those that think RBNZ will just smash rates down to help out all the ticked up kiwis ... yeah right .. Aussie has just turned face and is now lifting rates higher same for many nations .. we turn around now and drop hard so will our dollar and not sure if many know but we are an ever increasing trade deficits( we spend more as a nation that we export and make) would head even higher which with are costs of living crisis would only increase...... petrol to $4 anyone ??.... then we will have an issue of our credit rating as we borrow much of our funds from overseas commercial / central banks

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300...rating-at-risk

Ratings agency Standard & Poors has warned that New Zealand’s credit rating could be reduced if the current account deficit does not improve and government interest costs rise substantially to more than 10% of revenues.

The deficit hit $2.8 billion in six months to the end of December, which was $39 million more than forecast.

Core Crown tax revenue was $375 million or 0.7% below forecast at $54.5b, while core Crown expenses were $411 million, or 0.7%, above forecast at $60.5b.


NZ's Govt debt is currently growing at over $60M per day - that is it spends $50M more than it 'earns'.!!

[Chris W]

Reposting comment from another thread


"A property seminar I was at the weekend had a Ray White representative speaking and he said there is real time pain for the Auckland home owners currently, A couple who got caught up in the buying frenzy in 2021, They bought an Auckland property for 2.4m and have to sell due to pressure on their mil plus mortgage, they will now have to take a 600k loss as the top offer they had was 1.8m. Now Thi is happening all over Auckland as recent home buyers wake up and smell what the RBNZ was cooking. Some stress on the way this year for sure."

How international market forces affect NZ property - PropertyTalk.com

[Chris W]

https://www.interest.co.nz/investing...oup-misleading

10 March 2023
FMA warns Du Val Capital Partners Limited over misleading or deceptive statements to investors in the Du Val Mortgage Fund

https://www.fma.govt.nz/news/all-releases/media-releases/fma-warns-du-val-capital-partners-limited-over-misleading-or-deceptive-statements-to-investors-in-the-du-val-mortgage-fund/

[Beginner1]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nz-eco...MQRQM7V247EQA/

this on the front page of the herald

Great News.. We need OCR to go up and banks to increase rates to control the inflation. Wannabe Investors and First home buyers will drop like flies. 3000+ mortgagee sales..
We are ready to pounce.
Lot of mortgages are expiring 2023 Dec. Already know few people dreading going from 2.79% to 6%+.

I might as well vote liebour for the first time so the market will collapse to unthinkable levels. I am liking this engineered recession by JA and Co. People will hate them so much after a another turn and financial ruin. It will also be hard for kiwis to go to Australia due to rental crisis over there.

[Frezzinghot]

US bond market forecasting US fed will begin cutting rates second half of 23

If NZ GDP is forecast to go negative -2% in 2024 , RBNZ can ease the pain early by cutting rates at the end of 2023

Adrian Orr will have to pray to Tane mahuta if this is a possible though ..

Signs are there that work has already slowed from various trades, this is only the beginning I’d say

[Jeffa]

With the MSM now accepting a recession, is it worse than anticipated? Resulting in a BIG U-turn from Tane Mahuta?

US bond market forecasting US fed will begin cutting rates second half of 23

If NZ GDP is forecast to go negative -2% in 2024 , RBNZ can ease the pain early by cutting rates at the end of 2023

Adrian Orr will have to pray to Tane mahuta if this is a possible though ..

[Frezzinghot]

Perhaps Jancinda was a lot smarter than I gave her credit for ditching NZ for the other side of the world early for the mess she had overseen
or perhaps she had been following Jeffas post religiously last year

With the MSM now accepting a recession, is it worse than anticipated? Resulting in a BIG U-turn from Tane Mahuta?

[Jeffa]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nz-eco...MQRQM7V247EQA/

this on the front page of the herald

Perhaps Jancinda was a lot smarter than I gave her credit for ditching NZ for the other side of the world early for the mess she had overseen
or perhaps she had been following Jeffas post religiously last year

[Frezzinghot]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nz-economy-recession-tipped-to-be-twice-as-deep-as-earlier-forecasts-asb/NXNT25D7LZB7NMQRQM7V247EQA/

this on the front page of the herald

[Beginner1]

With regards to the above offers and RE agents, it is their job to take any offer to the vendor under law, if they give you s#*t then say you will ring head office etc (even tho by now its not going anywhere)
I have been dealing with lots of idiot agents as well, they will be leaving the industry in droves as we speak so hopefully we are left with ones who actually want to make some money and sell some property. If they have any brains they will realise the buyer is now the most important person and to take all and any offer to the vendor..

Agree.. Few idiots still in the RE game but most will disappear. In this buyers market you will be getting paid by the vendor but will be working for the buyer.

Good agents who understands the market and can soften the vendors will survive.

I am super excited with the opportunities present and buying, renovating again, but don't want to fire too early. Sad to see NZ heading into double digit recession but we just have to make the most of it. Who the f*** wants to engineer a recession on top of expected recession even 10years..

[Chris W]

I read in Stuff Graeme Fowler is paying $20,000 more per month

"- and plans to sell 20 properties in 2024 to clear all debt."

Perhaps he is unable to sell in 2023 due to some constraint:

Such as
1) mortgage interest rates being fixed for long period and mortgage break costs being high?
2) tenants notice period?
3) other