S#%ts going to hit the fan.

[Sanya]

Our “clever” Government thinks that it’s appealing to its existing voter base – and potential new voters – by kicking the S#%t out of "property speculators".

Falling polls may see the Government – in desperation – propose a wealth tax to further widen voter appeal.

[donna]

^^ I can’t see Renters wanting banks and other impersonal institutions running and owning the rental market as rents are sure to rise to protect profits and there will be no negotiation. Pay up or get out.

Also these players wouldn’t put up with the tenancy rules like no eviction etc. They’d demand the same rights as Government - I.e. exemption from the rules we have to abide by.

cheers,

Donna

[Frezzinghot]

^^ I can’t see Renters wanting banks and other impersonal institutions running and owning the rental market as rents are sure to rise to protect profits and there will be no negotiation. Pay up or get out.

Also these players wouldn’t put up with the tenancy rules like no eviction etc. They’d demand the same rights as Government - I.e. exemption from the rules we have to abide by.

cheers,

Donna

Exactly, the bigger the institution, the less they play by the rules!

[Engineer]

Green shoots in Auckland ?
Keep an eye on the top inner ring suburbs, they normally move up first.
There's also really good deals around.


“I had a full room - I had an absolutely full room - standing room only, 30 to 40 people.”

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/43136

[donna]

^^ Kerr House Epsom was valued at 6.6m 2021 and so sold for 1 million less 2 years later. It’s low point was Nov 22 valued at 4.8m so there’s optimism we’re in recovery phase of the property cycle.

cheers

Donna

[OnTheMove]

Property cycle in recovery phase in 2024.

Donna do you think we are likely to see a bounce back that soon? My main concern is CH economy, luckily NZ had moved back toward the US some time ago, but CH is still a huge importer of our agriculture products and Tourists. The problems with aging workforce is more of a long term issue, but the zero covid policy and their well documented property market problems could well cause some serious problems for them (and the rest of us)

Our beachside Auck PPOR according to valuation sites has lost 27% already. No drama, bought it well below market at the time, but another 27% and SH could really hit the fan for us. Yet I look at Mangawhai Heads as it is a very similar area lifestyle wise with the ocean and views etc. Real estate listing prices there are vastly out of touch with Recessions and Inflation ie asking $1.5M with an RV of $1.05M. An anomaly but perhaps it takes properties not selling before small towns start to feel the impact of this great recession.

I remember early 2017 when Auck dropped -14% or there abouts, then it plateaued +- 5% up and down for 4 years. Yet nowhere else in the country took a hit, obviously investors buying up elsewhere (ie greater Wellington area and Dunedin) probably had something to do with that. Prior to this I had seen the rest of NZ move in line with Auck's prices, almost like a ripple effect.

What really annoyed us though was BNZ locking us in at 6.3% and the recent news of them offering NHBs 4.99%. Hardly loyalty inspiring tactics.

Whoever gets into NZ Govt next has to have a Finance Minister with serious credentials. It feels like all we have had since the last lot got lucky with a coalition in 2017 is spend and a failure to deliver on costly failed policies, with no concept for the ramifications of doing so. Surely NZ wont be duped by a "nice person" again, hopefully current polls will fall toward real world of what the very same Govt with the same policies has blundered over the last 6-7 years.

[donna]

^^ other discussions suggest we’re not out of the woods. We have the tourists and students are coming back - though not up the the numbers we’re used to. Lack of rentals and short term accommodation is hurting businesses esp. in tourism - needing them to find accommodation to get staff onboard.

Lack of supply and more demand will push up inflation and we know how Mr Orr deals with that. Banks being selective with the low interest rate at a loss to grab attractive customers with many years of repayments ahead of them suggests there’s some pain ahead as we batten down the hatches and prioritise spending on essentials only.

Just my 10 cents worth.

cheers

Donna

[flyernzl]

What really annoyed us though was BNZ locking us in at 6.3% and the recent news of them offering NHBs 4.99%. Hardly loyalty inspiring tactics.

Unlike residential landlords, who for some reason are expected to keep prices low for their long-term tenants, most large corporates offer a better price for new customers than for their existing long-term clients.

[donna]

^^ well observed - I’m a subscriber to wired magazine and they charged me $30 for the year then sent me a deal - get 12 months for $5.

It’s better to cancel at the end wait a couple of months then grab their new customer deal.

cheers

Donna

[Chris W]

https://www.interest.co.nz/investing/120258/financial-markets-authority-issues-formal-warning-du-val-group-misleading

[Beginner1]

An agent I deal with sometimes was discussing the current market atm. She mentioned that currently it was not so much FHBs looking to buy but more current buyers looking to downsize. This group had bought in the last 2 yrs at the top of the market but can no longer handle the current interest rate hikes. She said they dont care if they lose 100k just so long as they don’t have to pay the new lending rates.

They are all looking to downsize from those lavish homes and into something more Manageable! These were buyers who thought it a good idea to buy a 1.5m home for there first purchase.

Fools…

It is very real now. It will be far worse in coming months. Was rental hunting after 8 years in hibernation. I have a portfolio with 18% GY and bank has approved 2millon to splash on rentals or flips.

I went to 3 open homes yesterday.
- 1st property : do- upper 800m2 in prime location CV 850k, no offers for 6months. Offered 350k on paper. Elderly women want to move in to care home.
- 2nd property : Holiday for my family and do Airbnb on the beach CV 1.1million offered 640k on paper. Marriage split
- 3rd Property : offer was too low for the RE agent asked me to f off... Investor in trouble

I am not in hurry to buy as I have waited 8 years. Just low balling around now to get back into the market.

If Liebour comes back to power we will be seeing 2015-2017 prices. National comes back it will stabilize around 2017-18 prices.

Bargains will come as distressed amateur investors and First home buyers will flood the market. FOMO created by RE agents, MAs, property gurus and Media has screwed so many people which they will never be able to recover.

Their loss/stupidity our gain.

[Frezzinghot]

It is very real now. It will be far worse in coming months. Was rental hunting after 8 years in hibernation. I have a portfolio with 18% GY and bank has approved 2millon to splash on rentals or flips.

I went to 3 open homes yesterday.
- 1st property : do- upper 800m2 in prime location CV 850k, no offers for 6months. Offered 350k on paper. Elderly women want to move in to care home.
- 2nd property : Holiday for my family and do Airbnb on the beach CV 1.1million offered 640k on paper. Marriage split
- 3rd Property : offer was too low for the RE agent asked me to f off... Investor in trouble

I am not in hurry to buy as I have waited 8 years. Just low balling around now to get back into the market.

If Liebour comes back to power we will be seeing 2015-2017 prices. National comes back it will stabilize around 2017-18 prices.

Bargains will come as distressed amateur investors and First home buyers will flood the market. FOMO created by RE agents, MAs, property gurus and Media has screwed so many people which they will never be able to recover.

Their loss/stupidity our gain.

Lots of pain coming for those with high mortgages coming of low fixed rates, however some stock starting to move in Auckland as immigration increases and sellers start to meet the market. Also can’t see how much higher rates can go before killing everyone off!

[Frezzinghot]

Auckland is somewhat sheltered from any major shocks, in a recession most move from the regions to look for work so competition for rental stock etc tend to increase. Why I love Auckland for holding stock.

[Chris W]

Worthwhile putting these observations from Freezinghot from another thread into this thread:

1)
15-04-2023, 03:24 PM

Have a friend who owns a construction company tell us today 2 building companies which I cannot name haven't sold any new builds for months. Banks are also not lending on new developments unless they are 80% pre sold.

https://www.propertytalk.com/forum/forum/property-investment-forums/new-zealand/property-investment-nz/730600-how-international-market-forces-affect-nz-property/page24#post734362

2)
17-4-2023, 09:43 AM

Spoke to our plumber today who we use often, told us work is DEAD! 2nd person in 2 days who said work has stopped all crawling, my own business is slow atm. Rates having a huge effect this year!

https://www.propertytalk.com/forum/forum/property-investment-forums/new-zealand/property-investment-nz/730600-how-international-market-forces-affect-nz-property/page24#post734404

[Chris W]

FOMO created by RE agents, MAs, property gurus and Media has screwed so many people which they will never be able to recover.

For those recent purchasers in Auckland and Wellington, who borrowed 80% or more of the purchase price, many are already in negative equity.

The key question is can those recent purchasers continue to hold on.