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How international market forces affect NZ property
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Originally posted by Jeffa View Post
NZD over sold, it went lower than the covaids lockdown in March 2020
I'm short selling the US dollar Vs Kiwi, NZD too cheap, .
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Originally posted by Jeffa View Post
NZD briefly topped 62 USc this morning and up 12% since I made this trade/ a stronger Kiwi dollar is good for lowering our inflation.
It's b.s , but Orr will likely play along,
We have no control over our currency's buying power, we are too small a market, international market forces control our Kiwi dollar namely the Fed, like this thread says How international market forces affect NZ property.
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Russia fired 2 missiles into Poland killing 2
An attack on Poland could cause them to trigger NATO Article 5 provisions, which would result in a full-on NATO attack on Russia and World War 3
World war 3 is deflationary and would stop the Fed raising rates..lol .
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Originally posted by Jeffa View PostNZD briefly topped 62 USc this morning and up 12% since I made this trade/ a stronger Kiwi dollar is good for lowering our inflation.
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Originally posted by Jeffa View PostBank economist are going to have to reprice there dairy forcast pay outs lower for next year if the Kiwi gets stronger, this could see a reversal back to the big cities for work when our economy slows next year , strengthening weak housing markets in Auckland and Wellington.
Of all the families that I know who left, not one would return now.
They have built new lives and the children have settled in at school etc.
In time the children may venture to the big smoke for education or a high paying job
But never the parents.
Not one wants to be stuck in traffic again.
Not one wants to pay a fortune to live in a run down shack.
Big citys have have priced themselves out of the market.
With employers having squashed wages for the past two decades, the benefits of city life have gone.
Thank you John Key.
No one wanted to leave, but the cost benefit equation forced the move.
Now that it's done, no one is regretting it.
Thank you Roger Douglas.
In fact thank you all you short term thinking ( insert expletive of your choice here).
Last edited by McDuck; 17-11-2022, 05:40 AM.
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^^Yes I understand stand your point McD , but what I was referring to with internal migration back to the big cities, its cyclical,
when the economy slows next year and is likely to as the world moves into a recession from higher interest rates, unemployment will increase, this was based on a "possible"stronger Kiwi dollar from lower inflation leading to lower dairy forcast and payouts or weakness in exports, those jobs that were plentiful in the regions will disappear, there will always be work in the cities and with house prices lower, over supply of rentals, higher wages, a migration back to the cities is likely, this is not unusual, it happens every decade or so.
I'm always forward looking although I try to live in the present.
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This news clip is uninformative, all they say is House prices will double in 8 years, this again is why I believe mainstream media is dieing, only printing parts of the story to sell newspaper's, they don't explain how or why, most likely they don't know or couldn't be bothered doing actual research, I have explained several times on this thread why I believe house prices in NZ on average will double by 2030 as a base case or triple as a bull case.Last edited by Jeffa; 21-11-2022, 09:25 AM.
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No longer interested in the drivel coming from the the RBNZ and Wellington but some initial thoughts
RBNZ trying to catch up to other central banks like Australia and U.S with there inflation presumably slowing, so how the RBNZ forcasting that ours is increasing doesn't make sense?
Talk over in OZ of possible pausing rate hikes and US slowing down the pace of rate hikes
I haven't read the RBNZ report, but best to scare the market into a panic early because it's another 3 months before they can reassess the OCR.
There's still a large portion of mortgages that are locked below 3% that come off in 2023/24, RBNZ maybe trying to scare those people to tighten the belt earlier to help lower inflation , I believe if there caught out, that could crash our housing market/economy
Long term forcasting from RBNZ is always a guessing game, They really don't know we're we will be in 12 months time,I was supposed to move to OZ by now, but the Sharemarkets holding me back being in a bear market, I'm sticking to my 2030 time frame of exiting the NZ housing market.
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Originally posted by Jeffa View PostNo longer interested in the drivel coming from the the RBNZ and Wellington but some initial thoughts
RBNZ trying to catch up to other central banks like Australia and U.S with there inflation presumably slowing, so how the RBNZ forcasting that ours is increasing doesn't make sense?
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Fed meeting minutes/
"...risks to the baseline projection for real activity were skewed to the downside and viewed the possibility that the economy would enter a recession sometime over the next year as almost as likely as the baseline"Last edited by Jeffa; 24-11-2022, 09:27 AM.
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Originally posted by Jeffa View PostI'm more interested in international market forces, the macro economy has a far greater way on little old NZ than a woke confused ginga in Wellington pretending to know what he's doing, Why would you increase the OCR into a recession project only a few months later?
Fed meeting minutes/
"...risks to the baseline projection for real activity were skewed to the downside and viewed the possibility that the economy would enter a recession sometime over the next year as almost as likely as the baseline"
https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject....mber-2022.html
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Originally posted by Jeffa View Post
FEDERAL RESERVE Fed officials see smaller rate hikes coming 'soon,' minutes show
https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject....mber-2022.html
The projected recession the RBNZ is projecting is self inflicted or self for fulfilling.
Or perhaps this is apart of the plan?
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