How international market forces affect NZ property

[Jeffa]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/econ...9a9e57e074b569

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) went bust on Friday. It was the second biggest bank failure in recent US history and there are fears of “contagion” spreading across the globe.

But there’s a surprise upside for mortgagors with financial markets now betting strongly that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will put interest rates rises on hold.

[Frezzinghot]

And another US bank collapsing...
First Republic Bank/CA stock is down -69% pre trading market
Like I said, when 1 bank falls, others will follow like dominos.

It’s almost like history repeating itself. Fascinating!

[Frezzinghot]

And another US bank collapsing...
First Republic Bank/CA stock is down -69% pre trading market
Like I said, when 1 bank falls, others will follow like dominos.

I don’t quite get why banks fall in this fashion! Surely they cannot all be mismanaged? Or is it just the sharp increase in interest rates that has buggered all their lenders. 2008 you could understand the collapse in the Ponzi scheme lending.

[Jeffa]

I don’t quite get why banks fall in this fashion! Surely they cannot all be mismanaged? Or is it just the sharp increase in interest rates that has buggered all their lenders. 2008 you could understand the collapse in the Ponzi scheme lending.

People and businesses taking money out leaving Bank unable to operate, Fed said they would back stop this.


What I don't get is those in the media and economist saying Fed will continue to raise rates! Wtf? The Fed hasn't even reached there target of rate increases and banks are already falling over, what do they actually think will happen if the Fed continues to increase rates? The whole world financial system will crash.

[Jeffa]

SVB crisis shows Fed needs to slow down or a ‘lot more stuff is going to break,’ Altimeter’s Gerstner says
https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject....-to-break.html

[Jeffa]

U.S Mortgage rates tumble in the wake of bank failures



https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject....-failures.html

[Jeffa]

U.S 2y and 10 yields falling off a cliff, now for this to continue and our interest rates or swaps here in NZ to fall we would need the US CPI data to come in lower and have the Feds Jerome Powell have a dovish tone or start talking about ending rate hikes at the Fed meeting next week.

[Jeffa]

I don’t quite get why banks fall in this fashion! Surely they cannot all be mismanaged? Or is it just the sharp increase in interest rates that has buggered all their lenders. 2008 you could understand the collapse in the Ponzi scheme lending.

Silicon Valley Bank's customer withdrawal made history,

$42 billion was withdrawn Thursday.

That's $4.2 billion an hour

Previous largest bank run in modern U.S. history was Washington Mutual bank in 2008, and totalled $16.7 billion over 10 days.

More banks will fail if interest rates are raised higher by the Fed.

[Jeffa]

U.S 2y and 10 yields falling off a cliff, now for this to continue and our interest rates or swaps here in NZ to fall we would need the US CPI data to come in lower and have the Feds Jerome Powell have a dovish tone or start talking about ending rate hikes at the Fed meeting next week.

That senile creepy old man President Joe biden let it slip last week saying that the CPI print "Would come in good" I don't think he was meant to say that out aloud, it gives bond trader's a heads up on inflation data...silly old man.

[Jeffa]

The smaller US regional banks have their share price slashed as people withdraw deposits from them.

Something was always going to break, what more does the Fed need to understand, you raise rates that aggressively and this won't affect the wealthiest economy in the world?

U.S. Regional Bank Stocks Now:

1. Western Alliance, : -75%

2. First Republic, -65%

3. Zions Bancorp, : -43%

4. PacWest, -41%

5. Comerica, -33%

[chook]

People and businesses taking money out leaving Bank unable to operate, Fed said they would back stop this.


What I don't get is those in the media and economist saying Fed will continue to raise rates! Wtf? The Fed hasn't even reached there target of rate increases and banks are already falling over, what do they actually think will happen if the Fed continues to increase rates? The whole world financial system will crash.

There is no where to run, no where to hide. This is all their own doing

[Perry]

The theoretical 'value' of the banks (their shares) is irrelevant. It's the "confidence in the system" that counts. And mass withdrawals indicate that confidence is waning, if not evaporating. Where is all that paper being stashed, I wonder?

[Jeffa]

Multiple regional banks' shares halted (I counted 22 banks)

Big U.S. banks also under pressure,

SVB Financial's sudden shutdown on Friday after a failed capital raise had investors worried about risks to other banks from the Fed's sharp rate hikes over the last year. But many speculated the central bank could now become less hawkish, and the yield on the 2-year Treasury tumbled.


https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/f...se-2023-03-13/

[Jeffa]

Multiple regional banks' shares halted (I counted 22 banks)

Big U.S. banks also under pressure,

SVB Financial's sudden shutdown on Friday after a failed capital raise had investors worried about risks to other banks from the Fed's sharp rate hikes over the last year. But many speculated the central bank could now become less hawkish, and the yield on the 2-year Treasury tumbled.


https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/f...se-2023-03-13/

"The market is now expecting that the Fed is likely to not raise rates this month and so they may enter a pause period," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities"

[Jeffa]

U.S consumer price inflation estimates for tomorrow morning/currently 6.4%

STIFEL 5.8%
UBS 6%
WELLS FARGO 6%
CREDIT SUISSE 6%
HSBC 6%
JP MORGAN 6%
GURGAVIN CAPITAL 6%
MORGAN STANLEY 6%
SCOTIABANK 6%
NOMURA 6%
GOLDMAN SACHS 6.1%
BMO 6.1%
BANK OF AMERICA 6.1%
CIBC 6.1%
TD SECURITIES 6.1%
VISA 6.1%

Medium is 6%