How international market forces affect NZ property

[Sanya]

Good, higher inflation for longer please.
My large property debt isn’t going to devalue it’s self.
My tenants need wage increases.
Higher costs for building materials will push up the value of existing assets.
Higher costs of labour will increase the value of existing assets.

Yep, to add, rents will soar in 2024.

High interest and build costs have stalled new builds. High interest has also deterred new rental investments.

Just hope for the sake of renters that things don't get as bad as they are in Aussie right now.

[Engineer]

Good, higher inflation for longer please.
My large property debt isn’t going to devalue it’s self.
My tenants need wage increases.
Higher costs for building materials will push up the value of existing assets.
Higher costs of labour will increase the value of existing assets.

[Jeffa]

Be interesting to see what happens with other central banks worldwide, If Europe central bank cuts others won’t bother waiting for the Fed to cut and capital can leave the US relatively overnight, J Powell is Fked either way

Watching the 50 day moving average for the S&P 500

If it falls below the 50 day high you can call it the beginning of a bear market trend

Inflation and War between Iran, Israel and the US can send it lower than the 50 day moving averages and have a share market sell off or crash

[Jeffa]

[Jeffa]

[Jeffa]

US share market selling off on Iran / Israel possibly war

Biden all but giving the order to step in

Oil likely to spike further

Sell off in sharemarket will likely last until something can be resolved

[Jeffa]

Make no mistake about this
A military defence to protect Israel against Iran is an attack on Iran to protect the dollar against the Iranian Rial currency from replacing the petrodollar or US dollar as the currency exchange for oil in Iran

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iranian-attack-expected-on-israel-in-next-two-days-42b0537c

[Jeffa]

NZ Q1 cpi data out next week

Currently 4.7

ANZ has 4.0

Westpac has 4.2

RBNZ 3.8

BNZ 3.7

King Jeffas forcast ? Who cares king Jeffas rich,inflation doesn’t effect the wealthy.

[Jeffa]

Buying China shares

Buying Australia shares

Buying NZ shares

Once these central banks begin cutting rates….

It ain’t rocket science.

If the RBNZ cuts this year or next all that matters is that even the RBNZ is forcasting multi year cuts to the OCR

This is why King Jeffa is buying the NZ sharemarket

This could be the final few quarters it will ever be this cheap this decade let alone house prices being this cheap

Markets are forward looking, like King Jeffa they won't be waiting for cuts to happen, they will soon begin pricing them in

King Jeffas greed is returning.....and it feels good.

[Jeffa]

Be interesting to see what happens with other central banks worldwide, If Europe central bank cuts others won’t bother waiting for the Fed to cut and capital can leave the US relatively overnight, J Powell is Fked either way

Other side if Europe cuts, RBA and RBNZ cut later this year and Fed keeps its OCR unchanged, you could see these currencies devalued, could we see the kiwi dollar in the mid to low 50c to USD? This could cause a second wave of "imported inflation " like even higher fuel prices

Covaids stimulus and lockdown was a complete fk up for the world, economy and all central banks or governments are denying they did anything wrong.

[Jeffa]

Yeah seen that this morning, plays into my narrative of a US share market correction coming and a better entry price point in the second half of this year

Also plays into Trumps favour with the first cut looking like the day after the election

Wokesim can derail a delayed cut with one of the Fed members calling higher interest rates raciest as US blacks unemployment is increasing higher than whites

Be interesting to see what happens with other central banks worldwide, If Europe central bank cuts others won’t bother waiting for the Fed to cut and capital can leave the US relatively overnight, J Powell is Fked either way

[Jeffa]

^^ Although the US market can continue higher if the Fed remains dovish and there’s still 6 trillion in cash savings from bond yields sitting on the sidelines waiting to do something

King Jeffas cash is apart this 6 trillion waiting to be re invested

[Jeffa]

Higher for longer


US consumer prices picked up again last month, vaulting to a 3.5% increase for the 12 months ended in March, according to the latest Consumer Price Index data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That’s up considerably from February’s 3.2% rate and marks the highest annual gain in the past six months. Wednesday’s report further highlights that the path to lower inflation remains extremely bumpy and that any loosening of monetary policy might not happen soon.

Inflation is proving hard to stick back in the bottle. Energy, food, services, rents are all surging. The hotter than expected inflation points to the unwelcome possibility of a 2nd inflation wave.

Yeah seen that this morning, plays into my narrative of a US share market correction coming and a better entry price point in the second half of this year

Also plays into Trumps favour with the first cut looking like the day after the election

Wokesim can derail a delayed cut with one of the Fed members calling higher interest rates raciest as US blacks unemployment is increasing higher than whites

[Engineer]

It’s funny because it’s inevitable

https://youtube.com/shorts/YZFanepPQ...hOBvLQkVWI_2Jg

Might as well put an orangutan in charge.

[Sanya]

Higher for longer


US consumer prices picked up again last month, vaulting to a 3.5% increase for the 12 months ended in March, according to the latest Consumer Price Index data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That’s up considerably from February’s 3.2% rate and marks the highest annual gain in the past six months. Wednesday’s report further highlights that the path to lower inflation remains extremely bumpy and that any loosening of monetary policy might not happen soon.

Inflation is proving hard to stick back in the bottle. Energy, food, services, rents are all surging. The hotter than expected inflation points to the unwelcome possibility of a 2nd inflation wave.