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How international market forces affect NZ property

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  • Originally posted by Jeffa View Post

    Somehow the woke confused ginga in Wellington seems to think the RBNZ rate hikes that started months before the Fed started raising the Federal fund rate doesn't have a lag effect or slowing international demand and declining inflation doesn't effect us? Wtf??

    The projected recession the RBNZ is projecting is self inflicted or self for fulfilling.

    Or perhaps this is apart of the plan?
    I have been a big supporter of recessions, it's natural and healthy in capitalist markets, it weeds out the weak companies/ landlords so only the strong remain
    However the moves Woke Orr is making will hurt the innocent, I'm not talking about greedy investors.

    At this rate, many Kiwis are going to be hit hard in recession when job losses occur, house holds fall to one or low income in a higher interest rate environment?

    What the fk do they thinks going to happen

    Why do you think I have always referred to central banks as evil overlords

    Out side of a conspiracy theory, this truly doesn't make sense?

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Jeffa View Post

      I have been a big supporter of recessions, it's natural and healthy in capitalist markets, it weeds out the weak companies/ landlords so only the strong remain
      However the moves Woke Orr is making will hurt the innocent, I'm not talking about greedy investors.

      At this rate, many Kiwis are going to be hit hard in recession when job losses occur, house holds fall to one or low income in a higher interest rate environment?

      What the fk do they thinks going to happen

      Why do you think I have always referred to central banks as evil overlords

      Out side of a conspiracy theory, this truly doesn't make sense?
      Just what ever has happened to the covaids, most people now a scared whitless of a rates increase.
      "DEBT BECOMES IRRELEVANT WITH INFLATION".

      Comment


      • Weaker USD good for lowering NZ inflation

        ...yes I was well Infront of this overpaid Westpac Analyst to short the USD Vs NZD.
         
        Last edited by Jeffa; 24-11-2022, 01:36 PM.

        Comment


        • WTF is Orr doing?Does he even know what he's doing? Why did Labour give him a 5 year extension?Why has he been wasting his time with the small Maori economy and praying to Tane Mahuta than actually figuring out what's going on in the world?

          Bank of Korea opts for smaller hike; Asia markets rise after Fed signals slowing 'soon

          https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/24/asia...ndroidappshare

          Comment


          • NZ 10 and 2 year bond yields now massively inverted
            Bond market pricing in recession next year, then having to lower rates on the longer term bonds to fix this slow moving train wreck.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Jeffa View Post

              If Quantitative tightening goes too far we could make matters worse,BNZ and capital economics are already starting to warn of this.

              My bull case scenario rates go negative to stimulate growth, the western world simply isn't productive enough to pay for it's sovereign debt.

              We simply don't have the productive work force like China to pay the tax to cover the current debt but more importantly future sovereign debt.

              Negative interest rates land on asset prices tripling house prices by decades end.

              Asset price inflation will be the only way to keep ahead of the debt.

              ​​​​Retail Banks now have systems in place for this scenario

              That's my bull case, my base case is double.
              Reminder of Jeffa's reasoning of the base case for house prices doubling.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Chris W View Post

                Reminder of Jeffa's reasoning of the base case for house prices doubling.
                Agree, hence I'm tempted but trying very hard to keep my conspiratorial theories out of this thread... it's tempting.


                Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says the central bank is "sorry" that Kiwis are being buffeted by significant shocks and inflation is above target - but he's also conceding that the RBNZ is deliberately engineering a recession.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Jeffa View Post

                  Agree, hence I'm tempted but trying very hard to keep my conspiratorial theories out of this thread... it's tempting.


                  Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says the central bank is "sorry" that Kiwis are being buffeted by significant shocks and inflation is above target - but he's also conceding that the RBNZ is deliberately engineering a recession.
                  Just so they can print more money again!
                  "DEBT BECOMES IRRELEVANT WITH INFLATION".

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Frezzinghot View Post

                    Just so they can print more money again!
                    What a merrygo round of cockups!
                    "DEBT BECOMES IRRELEVANT WITH INFLATION".

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Frezzinghot View Post

                      Just what ever has happened to the covaids, most people now a scared whitless of a rates increase.
                      Ha ha yes true good point, last Xmas it was families stressing over the jab, this Xmas its families stressing over paying the mortgage.

                      Next Xmas stressing over the mortgagee sale??

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by chook View Post

                        Ha ha yes true good point, last Xmas it was families stressing over the jab, this Xmas its families stressing over paying the mortgage.

                        Next Xmas stressing over the mortgagee sale??
                        Have spoken to a owner of a scaffold/painting business, said hes been through 3 recessions, hes now going to scale back his business as he knows whats coming next year.
                        "DEBT BECOMES IRRELEVANT WITH INFLATION".

                        Comment


                        • Westpac forcasting OCR to start coming down early 2024

                          Tony Alexander still recommends 1&2y rates if you're coming off soon.

                          Markets and swaps tend to move ahead of OCR so retail Bank rates could start lowering rates mid to late 2023, for this to happen, we need to go into recession, preferably earlier than RBNZ is forcasting mid 2023.

                          If the government keeps propping up the economy in election year keeping inflation higher, rates will continue to increase next year.

                          Comment


                          • New York Fed President John Williams sees inflation falling to the low 5s this year and the low 3% zone next year.

                            He nods to signs shelter inflation is off the boil and maybe wages, too.

                            Comment


                            • 4.25 OCR gives a 1 year interest rate of about 6.75%
                              Adrian's prediction of 5.5% OCR = 1 year rate of about 8%.

                              He's acting like a cornered rat.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Engineer View Post
                                4.25 OCR gives a 1 year interest rate of about 6.75%
                                Adrian's prediction of 5.5% OCR = 1 year rate of about 8%.

                                He's acting like a cornered rat.
                                If it hits 8% how many will survive, lots of Aucklanders out there with a mil plus loans!
                                "DEBT BECOMES IRRELEVANT WITH INFLATION".

                                Comment

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