Inventory up big since last year

[cube]

In April 2022, the total number of properties available for
sale nationally increased 70.8%, from 15,838 in April 2021
to 27,050. For New Zealand excluding Auckland, inventory
increased 93.3%, from 8,825 to 17,060

- REINZ

I wonder how many of those are investment properties that will end up out of the rental pool?

[Jeffa]

It seems property investors move with first home buyers and they are both out of the market for various reasons, mainly low liquidity.

Oddly enough, the Labour introduced tax loss on mortgage interest no longer available has placed a hedge against current landlords protecting them from new competition.

Should this be changed with a change of government as National have said they would, I would expect them to open immigration this decade to fill those houses relatively quickly to appease there business owner voting base.

[McDuck]

It seems property investors .....

Well, you got the petrol price prediction right.

[Jeffa]

This is why I don't see an inflow of new rentals coming on the market any time soon, Our government has protected landlords from themselves.

Unless you're buying cash or have an extremely high salary taking in various inflationary pressures the numbers simply don't work.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/pro...-rent-increase

[Sanya]

This is why I don't see an inflow of new rentals coming on the market any time soon [...]

Agreed.

But it will work out ok for patient long term property investors.

The combination of increased interest rates, the CCCFA Act, banks increasing deposits even for new builds, escalating building material & labour costs, declining resale prices, progressive loss of loan interest deductibility, the Governments revised immigration settings (“greenlist”) etc. etc. points in all probability to a decline in investment property purchases and at the margins a sell off of lower performing investment properties and/or a pivot from residential to commercial property investment, followed thereafter by a looming rental property shortage which will be especially acute outside of major centers where supply is most challenged.