OCR just put up 0.5%. April 2022

[Keys]

but why not fix for longer if it’s obvious rates will continue to go up?
Donna

In the early 2000's I had negative equity.
When I started and I was more vulnerable, I fixed 5 years. I needed the security of knowing my outgoings. During that time i noted that, while secure in my outgoings, I was being hammered with relatively high interest rates. Now I have the ability to absorb four times my current interest rate easily. I will stay on 12 month terms unless the floating rate is far more beneficial. Not so much difference at the moment for a three year fixed and floating rate.

https://www.anz.co.nz/personal/home-loans-mortgages/

[chook]

Geez I’m on the same boat re July for expiry of very low fixed rate - but why not fix for longer if it’s obvious rates will continue to go up?

cheers

Donna

I warned about all of the impending rate rises and inflation on this site about a year ago (cant be bothered finding the thread) got laughed at everyone said no way and they will lock in another 2% 1 year...oh dear me!!!

[chook]

I warned about all of the impending rate rises and inflation on this site about a year ago (cant be bothered finding the thread) got laughed at everyone said no way and they will lock in another 2% 1 year...oh dear me!!!

I went digging and found it in interest rates...Old Chooky boy ha ha...knows his stuff aye even with no loans

26-10-2021, 01:53 PM
Originally posted by chook View Post
And more,... forget 2023 &2022 rate rises will happen this year..

https://fortune.com/2021/06/16/feder...flation-rises/
I hope most listened and fixed long...lots more increases and pain to come (especially for those on 1 year fixed

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...cted-economist

[Jeffa]

NZD at 65.5c USD/ Wall Street is selling off with massive tech companies like Google missing on earnings losing advertising revenue.

The market is pricing in a recession coming to the U.S which will no doubt affect the rest of the world.

This is healthy for NZ real estate long term/ if you can stomach the higher interest rates pain for the next 24 months rates will begin to turn downwards.

Just like in 2008/9 that was the optimal time to be buying, at this stage NZ seems to 6 to 12 months ahead of other markets.(Real estate & Share)

[PC]

With 7% inflation surely interest rates should be 9%+?
Much more hiking required.

[Jeffa]

With 7% inflation surely interest rates should be 9%+?
Much more hiking required.

3% OCR equals ~ 6.5% mortgage rates already priced in at 5 year rate.

Doubt OCR will go passed 3%, economy already slowing with housing market.

Again/ the economy needs to fall hard world wide for pain to end.

Holding this back is government over spending on projects/ low immigration keeping unemployment low.

Australia reserve Bank talking up possibly raising there OCR/ this could work in favour for the NZ economy in a couple of years.

[Jeffa]

Yep OZ inflation came in at 5.1%/ There OCR will likely be going up, which means there economy will be slowing over the next 12 months, there may not be as big an exodus to Australia as some economist forecast.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/ec...latest-release

[donna]

And then there’s Putin and his nuclear ambitions- I think he wants to go out with a bang! Remembered as the first to push the button. Hard to see the WW3 not materialising - even his foreign minister is talking it up. Surely this would tank the global economy. Scarcity pushing up inflation and interest rates but with job loss etc.

Anyone see this on the horizon?

[chook]

And then there’s Putin and his nuclear ambitions- I think he wants to go out with a bang! Remembered as the first to push the button. Hard to see the WW3 not materialising - even his foreign minister is talking it up. Surely this would tank the global economy. Scarcity pushing up inflation and interest rates but with job loss etc.

Anyone see this on the horizon?

Never, the Ebens wont allow this. Any Nuclear explosion on Earth reverberates through space and disrupts everything and everyone.

[Jeffa]

And then there’s Putin and his nuclear ambitions- I think he wants to go out with a bang! Remembered as the first to push the button. Hard to see the WW3 not materialising - even his foreign minister is talking it up. Surely this would tank the global economy. Scarcity pushing up inflation and interest rates but with job loss etc.

Anyone see this on the horizon?

Many experts pick NZ as a safe haven during a nuclear war

https://www.express.co.uk/travel/art...china-military

Some how I disagree..

[PC]

Have others noticed how the banks lending margins have doubled?
Used to be OCR+2%. Now it's +4%.

[Jeffa]

Have others noticed how the banks lending margins have doubled?
Used to be OCR+2%. Now it's +4%.

Swaps are closer to fixed 1 year and floating rates/my floating rates are 4.40%/ the 2 to 2.5% interest on top of the OCR is the profit the bank's make lending to you, longer term lending rates are basically reading tea leaves,

and we all love forcasting the future ..

[Jeffa]

Yep, this government doesn't get it

These projects will add to inflation.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/govern...SCGYCNAA2Z52M/

On the other side , real estate is a hedge against inflation so I don't see house prices in Auckland falling much further.

[McDuck]

" this government doesn't get it -These projects will add to inflation."

Well, if they're smarter than me, and they probably are, considering the magnitude of collective experience and skill at their disposal...
Then, yes they do.

They are totally aware of what adds to the money supply, and therefore adds to inflation.
*(All other factors being equal and motionless - which they never are).

It's just not the the inflation is occurring more evenly across the whole of the population , rather than the asset prices of a select few alone.

I don't mind this approach at all.

Society is after all a group effort.

[Jeffa]

Well, if they're smarter than me, and they probably are, considering the magnitude of collective experience and skill at their disposal...
Then, yes they do.

They are totally aware of what adds to the money supply, and therefore adds to inflation.
*(All other factors being equal and motionless - which they never are).

It's just not the the inflation is occurring more evenly across the whole of the population , rather than the asset prices of a select few alone.

I don't mind this approach at all.

Society is after all a group effort.

The inflation doesn't affect me, besides a knock to my unrealised capital gains net worth and the erosion of my debt but it does affect there core voter groups of the blue collar working class because there's only so many food banks around.