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2022 - You're Best Guesses On What It'll Bring

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  • #31
    ANZ earnings per share have fallen at about 8.3% a year over the past five years... a sharp decline casts doubt on the future sustainability of there future dividend payments to share holders..

    ANZ is desperate for an OCR increase so them and other banks can raise mortgage rates and try make a profit..good luck with that one.

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    • #32
      House prices would double in five years if net migration returned to pre-Covid levels
      30 Jun 2021
      Originally posted by STUFFed
      House prices would double in five years if net migration returned to pre-Covid levels, ANZ research shows. Even if net migration fell by nearly 60 per cent on pre-Covid levels, house prices would still increase almost three quarters by the end of 2026, if all other factors were held constant, the bank’s economists say.

      The research looked at how immigration affects the economy and found its main impact was on the housing market, via house price inflation and building consents. The Government recently directed the Productivity Commission to conduct an inquiry into what immigration settings could best facilitate long-term economic growth and promote the wellbeing of New Zealanders.
      Wasn't it Labour that lied about / promised to reduce immigration to ameliorate house price pressure?

      Last edited by Perry; 01-07-2021, 12:19 PM. Reason: added cartoon
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      • #33
        Originally posted by Jeffa View Post

        When bank's talk like this there anticipating profits in the hope of appeasing there shareholders or increasing there shareholder base .

        No one seems to metion the fact that inflation is looking more and more transitory which is not good news for the bank's and we're most likely in a low interest rate environment permanently.
        I have three rules for investing. 1/ Don't listen to the Govt. 2/ Don't listen to the mass media, and 3/ Don't listen to bank economists. Do these three things, and you can safely invest in a manner that conforms to current economic reality.

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        • #34
          Very nicely put, Hound. The collective IQ of those groups would struggle to make room temperature figures. Even in summer.
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          • #35
            I usually respect what the RBNZ have to say , they no longer have a consistent message. They now sound like bank economist that pretend to know what there doing , now they make things up as they go along.

            "The RBNZ says prices will stop rising in the September quarter in 2022 (with a 0.0% outcome forecast) and then says prices will drop -0.3% in the December 2022 quarter. It then sees the falls picking up some pace, peaking with quarterly falls of 0.8% through much of 2023 and leading to an annual fall of 3.0% by early 2024. The final quarter included in the forecast range is September 2024 and the RBNZ says prices will drop -0.3% in that quarter and the annual fall will as of that time be -2.2% "

            This is the most confusing, all over the place forecast I have read .

            They should hire to the guy's wearing tin foil hats, they seem to have a better hit rate.

            https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...2022-2024-says

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            • #36
              Why on earth would house prices drop?

              The RBNZ has had a wild stab at this before, and completely missed the mark.

              At least they acknowledge that, in this, their latest bit of guesswork.
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              • #37
                Originally posted by Perry View Post
                Why on earth would house prices drop?

                The RBNZ has had a wild stab at this before, and completely missed the mark.

                At least they acknowledge that, in this, their latest bit of guesswork.

                Indeed.

                Has there been a single economist or Government official that's correctly projected house price forecasts in the past few years?

                Bank economists tend to be the worst.

                There's actually lots of reasons why house prices might not drop.

                First, cost of land and cost of building material and labour are escalating - far outpacing inflation. Will that change in 2022?

                Second, supply as in houses available for purchase is at a record low. Listings in some parts of NZ are down 30% YoY. Will that change in 2022?

                Third, the Brightline test actively discourages housing turnover, for property investors who the Gov had hoped would sell to FHB's and even for some non residential investors (see article). Who wants to pay 39% income tax on the sale? Will that change in 2022? https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/h...ct-on-families
                Last edited by Sanya; 19-08-2021, 03:58 PM.

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                • #38
                  So much for helping first home buyers. I hope such cruelly and negatively impacted people remember this at the ballot box.

                  Unintended consequences atypical of legislation passed by comrade commissar's gummint.

                  Legislate in haste so taxpayers' repent at leisure.

                  Or maybe . . .

                  Legislate in haste and tax at leisure.




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                  • #39
                    RBNZ: No continued house price increases - rather a 5% decrease.

                    Adrian Orr lays out what he sees as the contributory factors.

                    I.e. 577 new dwellings a week coming on to the market.

                    Really?

                    Any PT Forumites see (or seeing) the same sort of things / numbers?

                    Or it the governor orrb gazing? Or sabre rattling?

                    Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr says why he thinks house prices will fall 5%
                    19 Aug 2021

                    Originally posted by STUFFed
                    Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr feels he has good reason to think a fall in house prices is on the horizon – and it is mostly to do with housing supply and migration. Addressing Parliament's Finance and Expenditure select committee on Thursday, Orr said the demand for extra houses and new construction was going in "polar opposite directions" at the moment.

                    "I think is probably the most stark diagram I have seen on anything related to housing in New Zealand for a long time," he told MPs. "You are looking at houses coming out in the market at record high levels, and you're looking at a very suppressed level of population growth." The bank’s projections see about 2500 new dwellings coming on to the market each month over the next year or so, and the extra demand for homes from net migration sitting well under 1000 homes each month.
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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Perry View Post
                      RBNZ: No continued house price increases - rather a 5% decrease.

                      Adrian Orr lays out what he sees as the contributory factors.

                      I.e. 577 new dwellings a week coming on to the market.

                      Really?

                      Any PT Forumites see (or seeing) the same sort of things / numbers?

                      Or it the governor orrb gazing? Or sabre rattling?

                      Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr says why he thinks house prices will fall 5%
                      19 Aug 2021


                      I agree with the Reserve Banks observation that soaring house prices are a result of “a supply and demand problem”. We can’t after all expect the RB to admit that printing loads of money and dropping the OCR to nearly zero, not to mention acting late on upping LVR’s had any role in soaring prices!

                      Still, even if 2500 new build houses come to market each month for the next year it doesn’t necessary mean house prices will drop by 5% throughout NZ.

                      This is because the supply / demand equation is localised. For example, how many net new homes will be built in central Wellington in the next 12 months? The answer is not many because there isn’t the land available to do so.

                      The other hairy question is what type of new homes will be built? Given the soaring price of land, rapidly escalating material and labour costs it’s not unreasonable to expect developers to focus on higher end rather than “affordable” homes. Developers are in business to make money and they make a better margin at the high end. If the significant portion of new builds are priced above current median house prices what influence does that have for on-going median house price trends?


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                      • #41
                        Inflation shock may hit mortgage holders hard and soon

                        19 Oct 2021

                        Originally posted by STUFFed
                        ANZ is tipping inflation will reach 5.8 % early next year and the official cash rate 2% in August. But the bank also warned a "dramatic increase in wholesale swap rates" on Monday meant there was now "real pressure" for mortgage rates to rise further "before long."
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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by STUFFed
                          New Zealand’s current account deficit blew out to a record $20.2 billion in 2021 after imports far outstripped exports in the final quarter of the year, figures released by Stats NZ show.

                          Westpac senior economist Nathan Penny said the deficit reflected the "hot New Zealand economy."

                          "We are, at least temporarily, living beyond our means," he said.
                          Living beyond our means is an econ-o-mist's idea of a 'hot' economy????

                          I already had a poor opinion of econ-o-mists, but it's now down-graded to DD minus.
                          (To put it in CRA language.)

                          CRA = credit reporting agency
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