APRIL 2021 Have the new rules had any effect yet?

[chris_gee]

I read Adrian Orr's speeches - pretty much what you would expect him to say.

[Sanya]

I am not sure what some nobody labour politicians statement has anything to do with reality.

But 40% is certainly an understatement.

What is your point exactly ?

The point being sometimes there is a gap between perception and reality.

Where are the auctions you see “every day” where “Chinese buyers take 18 out of 20 properties”?

What types of properties are being auctioned and in what location?

How do you know the buyers are Chinese?

[Bluekiwi]

You would have to be living under a rock Sanya to not see it.

I assume you are in Auckland Sanya ? - if you are not then you have an excuse.

Go any day to the Barfoot Auctions Bruce Mason to Highbrook, spend an hour there, and tell me I am wrong.

If you dont get out of your comfy lounge chair and actually go to the coal face and get some real life experience then you cant really comment.

After 20 years of experience at auctions, and based on real life events of the last 10 years at auctions.

90% of properties go to Asians with all sorts of names.
Not all Chinese, but 70% of that 90% are.

I am not making comment on whether it is good or bad.
I am just saying its a fact.

Its also a fact that a lof ot money comes from Asian citizens and organisations, through resident networks in NZ.

I am not complaining.
I once accepted a Europeans pre auction offer on my house at 750k, which was about 25k above the agents estimate.
Then had a Zhing, a Zhou, and Zhang, bid it up to 886k.

That 136k is better off in my bank account than somewhere in China.

[Sanya]

I don’t live in Auckland. Nonetheless, the 90% “Asian” buying rate at auctions surprises me.

That said, a much as we moan about high house prices and housing affordability in New Zealand the price to income ratio in a city like Shanghai is over 35 and new inner ring developments currently sell for around NZD 25k per square meter.

Viewed through that lens Auckland property is cheap, very cheap.

[Jeffa]

你好，我是麦克鸭，我忘记了我的祖先偷走了这片土地，所以认为这是唯一的公平购买。

[McDuck]

你好，我是麦克鸭，我忘记了我的祖先偷走了这片土地，所以认为这是唯一的公平购买。

https://nzhistory.govt.nz/war/new-ze...he-musket-wars

[McDuck]

Go any day to the Barfoot Auctions Bruce Mason to Highbrook, spend an hour there, and tell me I am wrong.
90% of properties go to Asians with all sorts of names.
Not all Chinese, but 70% of that 90% are.
Its also a fact that a lot of money comes from Asian citizens and organizations, through resident networks in NZ.

Has anyone (who has been frequenting Auckland auctions in the last few months) seen this high level of Asian purchasing?
Or evidence that these individuals are acting as fronts for overseas buyers?

Historically, my first experience of China distorting the New Zealand housing scene was back in the 90's.
In Howick first.
Streets of tall thin houses with huge redundant pillars and entrances out front, and the expected backlash form Howick locals.

Then the City, my local city pub, and local carpark, were erased to build apartments for Chinese interests.
100 years of history, gone in a flash.
One social hub, one social group, one culture erased and supplanted by another.

Then whole new streets in Hobsonville all bought out.

and so on.

I've not been to many auctions recently, reducing that Covid risk,

Good up to date personal experiences of recent auction bidding would be useful.

[Bluekiwi]

你好，我是麦克鸭，我忘记了我的祖先偷走了这片土地，所以认为这是唯一的公平购买。

Same can be said of United States and Australia.

Poor Mc Duck

[McDuck]

Same can be said of United States and Australia.

Is it blue kiwi or blue lady?
Seems everything is for sale with you.
Yes ,this is just a weak excuse to showcase some NZ talent.

[mrsaneperson]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned The Great Reset in all this commentary ?

The plan from the World Economic Forum, which includes all the big game players like Bill Gates etc. is that by 2030 "you will own nothing and be happy".

And no this is not a conspiracy theory , their intentions are very real with much support from Governments around the world:

https://youtu.be/aztvWxRKqDQ

[McDuck]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned The Great Reset in all this commentary ?

It's an interesting topic.
Best that you start up a separate thread in Coffee lounge, if you want to explore it thoroughly.
Or at least show how it relates to "APRIL 2021, Have the new rules had any effect yet?".
(Which is the topic of this thread).

[McDuck]

I find the Barfoot auction results informative. A month or so ago the clearance rate was 80-90%. Last week 35% this week 48% on a reduced volume

It seems to have reduced further again this weekend.
Buyers I know are getting a little more picky.
Looks like the new rules are having a gentle but noticeable effect .

[Sanya]

Rents hit an all-time high last month increasing 6% to a median of $540 a week

To early to say whether this is directly related to the new rules or not.

Perhaps other drivers are at play like the large increases or proposed increases in property tax (council rates) some regions are setting?

Source: https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/...kyrocket-again

[Bluekiwi]

Rents can only be increased once per year, and rental stats are only bonds paid and reported, which I think is a one month delay.
Ipso facto you will see currently, zero stats in respect of rent increases related to the loss of interest rate deductibility.
You will see 1/12th of that in each of the next 12 months, from May 2021 to April 2022.

Its basic logic and maths really.

My prediction is that it will take somewhere between 6 and 12 of those months before Labour realise the impact of what they have done, and start to panic they are going to be booted out of government for creating a crisis for their voters, before rent controls have to be put in.

My guess is February 2022.

In that time, they will likely unwittingly make it worse, by potentially thinking they are on vote winning strategy, as no one cares about property investors, and double down by forcing investors on to principal and interest.

[Sanya]

Rents can only be increased once per year, and rental stats are only bonds paid and reported, which I think is a one month delay.
Ipso facto you will see currently, zero stats in respect of rent increases related to the loss of interest rate deductibility.
You will see 1/12th of that in each of the next 12 months, from May 2021 to April 2022.

Its basic logic and maths really.

The above cited article quoted data from the Trade Me Property website (“Trade Me”) which publishes the median asking price of rentals as advertised on Trade Me Property.

This is obviously different from Tenancy bond data which measures the average rent of actual bonds lodged by private landlords with MBIE.

Asking prices for rentals are up (according to Trade Me) and that will follow through to bonds over the coming months.