APRIL 2021 Have the new rules had any effect yet?

[artemis]

.... The average kiwi chooses property as its incredibly simple ....

Not simple any more.

[chris_gee]

I don't think NZ is alone in easy money low interest rates. In fact it is pretty well forced to follow the line in that higher local rates would cause currency appreciation with consequences for exports. You could say that it stems partly from the financial collapse and the bail out of banks from the results of their irresponsible financial fiddling. But it also stems in part from excessive spending on "defence" and the excesses of the system favouring financial speculation v productive investment. It also arises from the effects of China Vietnam etc, moving manufacturing, and is an attempt to keep the party going by printing money rather than face the consequences of such changes.
Rising asset prices are then inevitable with easy credit,and low interest rates.

[McDuck]

I don't think NZ is alone in easy money low interest rates. In fact it is pretty well forced to follow the line in that higher local rates would cause currency appreciation with consequences for exports. You could say that it stems partly from the financial collapse and the bail out of banks from the results of their irresponsible financial fiddling. But it also stems in part from excessive spending on "defence" and the excesses of the system favouring financial speculation v productive investment. It also arises from the effects of China Vietnam etc, moving manufacturing, and is an attempt to keep the party going by printing money rather than face the consequences of such changes.
Rising asset prices are then inevitable with easy credit,and low interest rates.

So many interesting points in that.

I like the way you appreciate the relationships
around ---

in that higher local rates would cause currency appreciation with consequences for exports

It's not always a direct correlation.
There are many ways to steer exchange rates.
(Or sneakily drop product price by subsiding freight, ..yes I'm looking at you, you, know who you are).

Just look at how wrong the punters got it with regards to their recent pricing in of possible interest rate hikes.

So many tools to influence opinion, and therefore price.
No different to the ups and downs of a celebrity's status on social media really.

(Although, I have to admit, Elon Musk can't seem to torpedo himself, or his share price, no matter how hard he tries).

[Jeffa]

TSLA stock to $3000 usd in 2025 then $$9,000 2030.

McDuck to lose super supplement by 2035

[Jeffa]

Your so so I'll informed McDuck you literally have no idea of how the world is changing and what's coming this decade in technology.

[Jeffa]

So, the Reserve Bank does a cash dump.
Via the Banks.
Causes inflation in the banks main outlet, debt for housing.
surprise.
Causes Inflation in housing prices.
Ignores calls to stop.
Denies it's their problem.
surprise.
Instructs Govt to fix it.
Govt uses tax rebate as control tool.
surprise.

Solving one problem by creating an equally terrible one is not solving the problem.
It's hiding it.

I don't know guys, If you cause a problem, you should really take responsibility and fix it yourself.
The behavior seems extremely reckless.

Even this post lacks any ability to understand what Adrian Orr has been saying in hidden or Subtle verses from his speeches.

If you can't figure out what he is saying then you or your family will end up paying the consequences..you have one of the wealthiest and knowledgeable investors in New Zealand telling you what to do with your investments going forward.

He has said it on multiple occasions.

This guy "is" the top of the pyramid scheme in NZ

don't expect me to relay his message.

[Bluekiwi]

We have done extensive calculations and also consulted specialist accountants viewpoints and long story short this is the beginning of the end for residential property investment. Unless you have a highly positive cashflow property you are going to get seriously whacked with the deductibility rule change. Throw in a sideways (or even downward) moving market eg no capital gains and possible interest rate rises in the future and this spells an exodus of investors departing the market as its just not worth it any more. A lot of people dont actually realise the consequences yet until maybe they visit their accountant for their 6 monthly catch up, we are getting a trickle of owners coming to us who are in a whole lot of trouble who paid way too much for negatively geared property who are on a knife edge currently. Going to be interesting moving forward..

Yes, you are right Chook on all of this.
The small mum and dad property investors are getting shat on by the government and Labour dont care, and they likely have no idea of the consequences of their actions, they just thought it sounded good.
Big time operators are just going to move in and mop them up at bargain basement prices and wait it out till National gets back in, or intercompany borrowings on shares to repay residential debt.

It is a very costly exercise restructuring out of residential property, and then if governments change, trying to get back in again.
Cullens "Rich Pricks" have the funding to resturcture away and move back in when required.

What will be interesting is how the real culprit of the problem is going to react.
I see everyday at auctions the chinese buyers who take 18 out of 20 properties at auction, mostly money funnelled from China through residents here.
How will they react ?

Will they replace debt here in NZ with equity funding from China.
Or sell as they feel the market is going to be ripped apart.

Does this just mean that Asian money now takes 19 out of 20 ?

[Bluekiwi]

Even this post lacks any ability to understand what Adrian Orr has been saying in hidden or Subtle verses from his speeches.

If you can't figure out what he is saying then you or your family will end up paying the consequences..you have one of the wealthiest and knowledgeable investors in New Zealand telling you what to do with your investments going forward.

He has said it on multiple occasions.

This guy "is" the top of the pyramid scheme in NZ

don't expect me to relay his message.

Please dont do that Jeffa.

I have Duck Brains on ignore and quoting his idiotic posts just by passes that.

[McDuck]

Please dont do that Jeffa.

I have Duck Brains on ignore and quoting his idiotic posts just by passes that.

Denial is a river in Africa, to quote a bad dad joke.

[McDuck]

What will be interesting is how the real culprit of the problem is going to react.
I see everyday at auctions the chinese buyers who take 18 out of 20 properties at auction, mostly money funnelled from China through residents here.
How will they react ?

Will they replace debt here in NZ with equity funding from China.
Or sell as they feel the market is going to be ripped apart.

Does this just mean that Asian money now takes 19 out of 20 ?

What auctions are you going to?

Bluekiwi, you say:

"I see everyday at auctions the Chinese buyers who take 18 out of 20 properties at auction, mostly money funneled from China through residents here".

Do you really have evidence of this?


Mr Jeffa.
If you quoted this, it would annoy someone in denial, so you shouldn't do that.
I know how you like to keep the peace.

[McDuck]

Even this post lacks any ability to understand what Adrian Orr has been saying in hidden or Subtle verses from his speeches.
.

I get how exactly how the brains of these two chaps are working.
And they both know the subtext, but you know, be polite in public and all that.
I should very much like to test Mr B's value and quantity theory, with relative water levels.. It would require him to stand at the deep end of an empty swimming pool, chained to the bottom. ,, oh and a fire hose.

[Jeffa]

I'm to lazy to go auctions, the prices don't concern me or who's buying them. My properties are long as in generational long term investments.

[Sanya]

[...]

What will be interesting is how the real culprit of the problem is going to react.
I see everyday at auctions the chinese buyers who take 18 out of 20 properties at auction, mostly money funnelled from China through residents here.
How will they react ?

Will they replace debt here in NZ with equity funding from China.
Or sell as they feel the market is going to be ripped apart.

Does this just mean that Asian money now takes 19 out of 20 ?

Quite a statement Bluekiwi.

So are you saying the "real culprit" of house price inflation in NZ are Chinese buyers?

It was only 5 years ago when Labour was criticised after its housing spokesman, Phil Twyford, released figures from an unnamed real estate firm showing 40% of houses sold in Auckland in a three month period had purchasers with Chinese sounding surnames.

[McDuck]

Yes, good question...!

[Bluekiwi]

I am not sure what some nobody labour politicians statement has anything to do with reality.

But 40% is certainly an understatement.

What is your point exactly ?