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Economic and property outlook for NZ

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  • klauster
    replied
    Interesting views, hard to imagine!
    Who could imagine that a Flu outbreak end up in a pandemic? Apart of the orchestrating mainstream news if you did your own research you would have compared the war on Covid-19 with Flu outbreaks over the last 10 years and the results. NZ hasn’t experienced such economic destructions before and what are the options to squeeze and shift each Dollar from working people to pay for enormous consequences? – Inflation, GST increase, CGT, Wealth tax, Inheritance tax… maybe I’m mislead by fantasy, too.

    Leave a comment:


  • Perry
    replied
    Crashy - companies don't go bankrupt. Individuals do.
    Companies go into receivership or liquidation.

    Leave a comment:


  • MS1353
    replied
    More reasonable summery. My thought is like this.

    Leave a comment:


  • McDuck
    replied
    Originally posted by Frezzinghot View Post
    Agreed Kieth, This government has done us over, Australia continue to work!
    Are you all right?

    This whole thought process of yours is pretty irrational.

    You might have a thought worm.

    See if you can find it , identify it, figure out how it got into your head, and what it's feeding on.
    (usually fear or hate).

    People are people, "isims" are not real
    The selfish and the greedy will pretend to support them to use them to get what the crave.

    All a bit sad really.

    fyi.

    Leave a comment:


  • Frezzinghot
    replied
    Originally posted by Keithw View Post
    IMHO Your reasoning is flawed in so many ways.

    NZ will NEVER be COVID-19 free. It may be able to maintain a low level of incidence but will NEVER be free of it unless the borders are closed completely -nobody in without a 1 month quarantine. Even then someone is likely to get through that shows no symptoms. its just a pipe dream.

    Aus did not SHUT DOWN. A large majority of businesses continue to operate but with social distancing restrictions. (I personally continue to work during the lockdown from home in NZ for an Aus company who has most employees now working from home in Aus) There will surely be a slowdown, but nothing like the devastation that will show up in NZ from the abortion of approach taken by these Communists.

    The 600k NZers in Aus are mostly well established there, many not having much in the way of connections back to NZ any more. In the event of them losing their jobs there, there is a better chance of them getting something else there than here. The difficulty will be income while unemployed. At present, during the pandemic, they can get a benefit, but normally they cant.(and its means tested)

    Do we still have a shortage of property ?
    Shortage of cheap houses for sure, but is there really a shortage of places for people to live, especially with foreign students going home and maybe not allowed back. Overseas seasonal workers having returned home and again likely to have difficulty returning. Tourists not being here.
    Many rental providers that switched to Airbnb due to the rubbish imposed by this Communist Govt will now likely be forced to return their properties to the rental pool or consider selling, an increase in available rentals in the first case but a slight decrease if sold to an owner occupier.

    For those able to finance a purchase, holding costs will be considerably lower than they have been (low interest rates), but the chances of very much higher income taxes (and other taxes such as GST) are high, so the percentage of net income to housing expenses will probably end up being around the same as now.

    With the devastation that will soon start showing up in so many industries as you note, many people will choose to move to Aus where their chances of getting a job are better and the cost of living is considerably less. (Petrol has currently dropped to below $1 per ltr, it was $1.35 - $1.50 6 weeks ago, rents are much less than in NZ, as are average house prices in most areas)

    My pick is low volume property sales, slight drop in average price (5 - 10%), despite removal of LVR banks will be very fussy about who they lend too, in what industry they work, whether self employed or employed by large corporate (small company employees likely to have difficult time demonstrating the long term viability of the company they work for)
    Agreed Kieth, This government has done us over, Australia continue to work!

    Leave a comment:


  • Keithw
    replied
    IMHO Your reasoning is flawed in so many ways.

    NZ will NEVER be COVID-19 free. It may be able to maintain a low level of incidence but will NEVER be free of it unless the borders are closed completely -nobody in without a 1 month quarantine. Even then someone is likely to get through that shows no symptoms. its just a pipe dream.

    Aus did not SHUT DOWN. A large majority of businesses continue to operate but with social distancing restrictions. (I personally continue to work during the lockdown from home in NZ for an Aus company who has most employees now working from home in Aus) There will surely be a slowdown, but nothing like the devastation that will show up in NZ from the abortion of approach taken by these Communists.

    The 600k NZers in Aus are mostly well established there, many not having much in the way of connections back to NZ any more. In the event of them losing their jobs there, there is a better chance of them getting something else there than here. The difficulty will be income while unemployed. At present, during the pandemic, they can get a benefit, but normally they cant.(and its means tested)

    Do we still have a shortage of property ?
    Shortage of cheap houses for sure, but is there really a shortage of places for people to live, especially with foreign students going home and maybe not allowed back. Overseas seasonal workers having returned home and again likely to have difficulty returning. Tourists not being here.
    Many rental providers that switched to Airbnb due to the rubbish imposed by this Communist Govt will now likely be forced to return their properties to the rental pool or consider selling, an increase in available rentals in the first case but a slight decrease if sold to an owner occupier.

    For those able to finance a purchase, holding costs will be considerably lower than they have been (low interest rates), but the chances of very much higher income taxes (and other taxes such as GST) are high, so the percentage of net income to housing expenses will probably end up being around the same as now.

    With the devastation that will soon start showing up in so many industries as you note, many people will choose to move to Aus where their chances of getting a job are better and the cost of living is considerably less. (Petrol has currently dropped to below $1 per ltr, it was $1.35 - $1.50 6 weeks ago, rents are much less than in NZ, as are average house prices in most areas)

    My pick is low volume property sales, slight drop in average price (5 - 10%), despite removal of LVR banks will be very fussy about who they lend too, in what industry they work, whether self employed or employed by large corporate (small company employees likely to have difficult time demonstrating the long term viability of the company they work for)
    Last edited by Keithw; 27-04-2020, 01:52 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • crashy
    started a topic Economic and property outlook for NZ

    Economic and property outlook for NZ

    15 hours from now our stage 4 lockdown in NZ ends. Most companies were given 12 weeks pay per employee, so might be no drastic changes for another 8 weeks. Most companies have been closed for 4 weeks so unable to declare bankruptcy, and only a small proportion will reopen tomorrow. There are many businesses who do not have contingencies for 4 weeks downtime, let alone more. Many industries will simply cease to exist, at least for the near future: tourism, restaurants, hotels, casinos, pubs, bars, bricks and mortar retailers, stadiums, airlines and (insert others). NZ is an economy based primarily on tourism and exports of food and forestry. I'm not sure to what extent these export industries have been affected, but it will be negative across the board, so there are likely to be bankruptcies and job losses possibly at a massive scale. Most of these jobs will return eventually, assuming global trade resume. It's possible it doesn't resume at all, or only in part. Tourism is just fubar so I can't see how there won't be a complete collapse of each and every business in tourism. I'd say this sector is unlikely to recover in the next few years, if ever.

    This economic destruction aside, NZ is the best placed country in the world for eradicating the virus entirely, and we may benefit from this long term in many ways. I've written previously about how I predict the NZ population will increase by orders of magnitude due to reduced impacts from climate change. Being the only country in the world to be covid free might be a huge drawcard to the million kiwis living overseas, and the rich who are prepared to pay big money for citizenship. There is discussion about selling citizenship to billionaires who are prepared to invest multi millions in businesses that create NZ jobs.

    While there is universal agreement that the property market will collapse, I disagree. We still have a shortage in NZ, and regardless of the employment situation people still need somewhere to live. I expect that in Australia the 600,000 kiwis will lose their jobs, either naturally or by some executive decision to reserve jobs for Australian citizens. So I expect many of those 600,000 to return to NZ, and they too will need somewhere to live. They might not get employment here either, but at least they are safe from covid and get government assistance and free health care. These 600,000 might have a family, so we could be looking at an influx of several million, which would be a 50% increase in our population. Our infrastructure will not handle even a fraction of that, so many jobs will be created.

    On the other hand, short term many will be unable to pay their mortgage, resulting in mortgagee sales. There will also be far less people able to secure a new mortgage, so prices are likely to take a swift sharp dive, followed by a slow steady recovery as jobs come back. The country is likely to be slowly unlocked by region, depending on new cases, so Auckland is likely to be the last place to get back to normal. In addition, it's likely that people will want more social distancing, meaning less of the city life and more of the country life. Also without jobs to draw people into the city, there won't be the demand for city living. This may result in lower demand for Auckland property and higher demand for satellite cities and towns. In my city of Whangarei, we are going to build a new port, and it's possible Whangarei booms for the next few decades, rivaling Auckland for business, especially in the import / export sector.

    Remember, this is the damage likely in a country that will be covid free. How can other countries fare any better?
    Last edited by crashy; 27-04-2020, 12:03 PM.
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