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  • PC
    replied
    Originally posted by Perry View Post
    I think I'm getting it - albeit slowly.

    Over a year, the (aggregate of capital and dividends) 'value' of your initial $290k investment had gone up to $314k; then down to $293k.

    So - courtesy of Comrade Cindy's lock-down, etc., you've gone from being theoretically $24k better off, to being theoretically $3k better off, over 12 months.

    That would be a guts-kick if you were planning on using the $24k value appreciation for the buy-first-home option, but if you can't get the dosh for years - say - until you retire, it's just a shoulder shrug?

    Am I getting close?
    Put money into passive investment - it goes up, it goes down. Hopefully more up than down!
    Not living off it or spending it for quite a while.
    The graph of fund performance from Simplicity looks impressive - but when relating it to actual $ - I'm mystified.
    Have queried if they could add a fund value graph as well.
    Mostly Vanguard world wide index funds. So can't blame Jacinda for that one.

    Leave a comment:


  • Perry
    replied
    Originally posted by Learning View Post
    You give Cindy too much credit. Most Kiwisavers are tied to international markets and they plummeted before any mention of a lock down. Feb 17th for Dow Jones for example.
    I had noticed that. Hence the "etc." part of . . .
    . . . courtesy of Comrade Cindy's lock-down, etc.,

    Leave a comment:


  • Learning
    replied
    Originally posted by Perry View Post
    So - courtesy of Comrade Cindy's lock-down, etc., you've gone from being theoretically $24k better off, to being theoretically $3k better off, over 12 months.
    You give Cindy too much credit. Most Kiwisavers are tied to international markets and they plummeted before any mention of a lockdown.
    Feb 17th for Dow Jones for example.

    Leave a comment:


  • Perry
    replied
    Originally posted by PC View Post
    It's been ~1yr since opened. The numbers from memory:
    Initial Investment: $290K
    Before the Fiasco: $314K
    Dropped to: $275K
    Currently: $293K
    I think I'm getting it - albeit slowly.

    Over a year, the (aggregate of capital and dividends) 'value' of your initial $290k investment had gone up to $314k; then down to $293k.

    So - courtesy of Comrade Cindy's lock-down, etc., you've gone from being theoretically $24k better off, to being theoretically $3k better off, over 12 months.

    That would be a guts-kick if you were planning on using the $24k value appreciation for the buy-first-home option, but if you can't get the dosh for years - say - until you retire, it's just a shoulder shrug?

    Am I getting close?

    Leave a comment:


  • Nick G
    replied
    Most RE Agencies (traditional) at a national level had listing stock down 20% on averages over the last year. Guy I talked to felt we had to get a large volume increase before we get into a real buyers market. Obviously the 10,000 foot view but I hadn't considered that.

    Leave a comment:


  • PC
    replied
    The graph Simplicity gives is fund returns - so what that means??
    They don't have a fund value graph.
    It's been ~1yr since opened. The numbers from memory:
    Initial Investment: $290K
    Before the Fiasco: $314K
    Dropped to: $275K
    Currently: $293K
    I wonder if I'll get a tax refund? Ha Ha.

    Leave a comment:


  • Perry
    replied
    Right. So the amount (gain) over-and-above the capital that was deposited has gone down by the % figure you mention.

    If it went from 14 down to five, isn't that a loss of nine? (Rather than five?)

    Leave a comment:


  • PC
    replied
    The balance is now back above what was deposited.
    Down about 5% from where it was before the fiasco.
    The graph Simplicity displays shows % return rather than actual account balance - which is rather strange?

    Leave a comment:


  • Perry
    replied
    It it too early to average the returns figures out? Sort-of . . .

    . . . without the lock-down, the return for x period would have been y; but . . .

    . . . given the lock-down, the return for x period is likely to be y minus z = a.

    That means a reduced earning of b for that period.

    When you say no capital loss, do you mean the value of the fund has not gone down?

    (Please be patient / nice. Maths was never my strong point.)

    Leave a comment:


  • PC
    replied
    Originally posted by Perry View Post
    Covid-19-Saver

    Anyone know what sort of roller coaster ride the various kiwisaver groups are having?
    Have had?
    Will have?
    Simplicity balanced fund returns:
    Prior: +14%
    During: -10%
    Now: +5%

    So seems to have recovered with out capital loss.

    Leave a comment:


  • Perry
    replied
    Originally posted by crashy View Post
    Here is the forecast I made for Christchurch after the earthquake
    https://www.propertytalk.com/forum/s...ht=#post247341
    In that prediction you averred:
    I see longer term:
    - higher rents
    - high rental demand
    Based on comments from other PT forumites, my understanding is that happened in the short term.
    Not in the long term (currently) as supply exceeded demand.

    Leave a comment:


  • Perry
    replied
    Covid-19-Saver

    Anyone know what sort of roller coaster ride the various kiwisaver groups are having?
    Have had?
    Will have?

    Leave a comment:


  • crashy
    replied
    Here is the forecast I made for Christchurch after the earthquake

    Leave a comment:


  • OnTheMove
    replied
    Originally posted by Keithw View Post
    IMHO Your reasoning is flawed in so many ways.

    NZ will NEVER be COVID-19 free. It may be able to maintain a low level of incidence but will NEVER be free of it unless the borders are closed completely -nobody in without a 1 month quarantine.
    To be honest I thought that WAS the plan, there is talk about opening borders with Aus, but Aus will have to get down to the same level of low incidence that NZ has produced, which they are far away from.

    The articles I read have said basically due to NZ going into a full quarantine situation it will be able to move to a full domestic economy within weeks of going back to level 2, where Australia took a much more lenient policy on level 4 and it could see them take 6-9 months to return to full domestic production. That's how long I expect it to take before Aus is compliant enough for NZ to take a risk on them.

    I do agree with your overall opinion though that we will not eradicate it, but where Aus will be on and off lock down, NZ is in a solid position now with its tracing system to keep the incidence to 1 every second day for as long as we need. I believe there is a number the tracking system needed to reach which is part of why the government was stalling the opening of our domestic economy. Something like 100 people from each case (don't quote me its just a number the system uses, that's just an example).

    Another opportunity pending as a big GDP boost, that is a personal choice and should be treated as such, Cannabis. It has the potential to add about $250m to the GDP. Not to be sneezed at. That is my understanding. The problem is there is not education out there and elderly, especially national voters, just don't understand it and seem to still believe the Nixon and rubbish of 60 years ago using propaganda when he had no scientific understanding back then of the obvious benefits and how overly anxious his rhetoric had made some people. Some people still think a few eggs a day is bad for you.

    Im hoping Labour, Greens and Helen Clark foundation (who is in a UN Drug Advisory role) will start advertising and educating soon to debunk some of these absurd ideas around this medicinal plants recreational and medicinal use in a modern scientific environment. ie Cannabis smoke is like tobbaco smoke, ok just make something up. In fact it is a bronchial dilator and often prescribed for asthma. Most people will vaporise the flower now days anyway. And this is just one of MANY silly urban myths around what is now a pharmaceutical.

    I could be wrong but that's my 2c as an unqualified opinion that should not be quoted or relied upon for being accurate :-).
    Last edited by OnTheMove; 05-05-2020, 08:11 PM.

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  • JBM
    replied
    To think we will have billionaires line up to come to NZ to build businesses that will employ any meaningful numbers is pure dreamland ... more wealthy retirees yes I could see that but the reason many people in this world are billionaires is because they have manufacturing in third world locations with slave labour not NZ high reg costs high min wages .. see India , Asian also this is where all the new billions pop of buyers live not little old NZ close to markets etc..

    our only hope too grow economically is through primary industry aka fishing aquaculture (we have one of the largest economic ocean ownerships to population in the world ) farming , forestry , mining nz has some great gold prosperity but tourism was always been put first ... Doing this going forward will be putting the cart before the horse ... we need to stop borrowing billions trying keep businesses alive they survive on mass tourism but instead put billions into a major state project like another power plant In the South Island that not only we could use the cheap power for another Tiwai type plant but Will also bring fresh water from westcost alps highest rainfall to the dry barren central plains of the South Island in turn adding thousands of hectares of useless land to productive sheep,beef ,horticulture etc ... we must diverse away from far too much dairy farming in NZ
    Last edited by JBM; 29-04-2020, 08:43 AM.

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