Predictions for 2018

[Jeffa]

What Bank economist don't analyze and forecast is what I do very well.
Human emotions.. namely greed.

[donna]

^^ Link for the Quora quote.

[donna]

From Quora

Economics is surprisingly useless in banking and investing, but it is a fairly powerful tool, if properly applied, to convince clients you firm is trustworthy.

[donna]

Good question Perry.

[Perry]

Westpac's New Zealand economics team is warning house prices will fall gradually for the next four years,

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...-familiar-tune

Three years on and yet another failed prediction by most of the main bank air-head econ-o-mists.

Why do banks even have them on their payroll?

[Perry]

Seems apposite to re-visit this nostrum, two years later.

Check this thread before responding.

[Davo36]

well [email protected]@er me!

"I think there's too much sugar-coating of what's going on in the Auckland market.
Let's call a spade a spade.
House prices are falling,"

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12197920

Yes the papers normally don't allow commentary like that.

Their main advertisers - real estate agencies - tend not to like it.

So the main message is generally positive, all the time.

[eri]

well [email protected]@er me!

"I think there's too much sugar-coating of what's going on in the Auckland market.
Let's call a spade a spade.
House prices are falling,"

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12197920

[Perry]

Generalities versus specifics and averages.

Seems that the national trend is up, compared to the 2018 prediction / warning (over four years, though), that " house prices will fall gradually for the next four years."

[artemis]

How true is it?

The useful chart at the below link shows REINZ actual NZ median sales prices per month. It can be adjusted to show individual locations and different time scales. Up and down but overall up. December takes a dip, but still up over 2018.

http://www.interest.co.nz/charts/rea...an-price-reinz

And this very simple chart shows the monthly percentage change in house sales, along with the total value of the sector. Apart from the GFC percentage changes are positive.

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/k...e-price-values

[eri]

how true is what?

house price falls?

google barfoot property reports

Auckland property market edges towards first price decline in a decade

07 January 2019Read the December 2018 housing market update from Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director, Peter Thompson.

[Perry]

One Year Later

How true is it?

Westpac's New Zealand economics team is warning house prices will fall gradually for the next four years,

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...-familiar-tune

[Wayne]

All the schools and scientists are wrong.

About ?

[Nick G]

All the schools and scientists are wrong.

[Don't believe the Hype]

amazing what you can learn on PT forums.