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Predictions for 2018

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  • Jeffa
    replied
    What Bank economist don't analyze and forecast is what I do very well.
    Human emotions.. namely greed.

    Leave a comment:


  • donna
    replied
    ^^ Link for the Quora quote.

    Leave a comment:


  • donna
    replied
    From Quora

    Economics is surprisingly useless in banking and investing, but it is a fairly powerful tool, if properly applied, to convince clients you firm is trustworthy.

    Leave a comment:


  • donna
    replied
    Good question Perry.

    Leave a comment:


  • Perry
    replied
    Originally posted by eri View Post
    Westpac's New Zealand economics team is warning house prices will fall gradually for the next four years,

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...-familiar-tune
    Three years on and yet another failed prediction by most of the main bank air-head econ-o-mists.

    Why do banks even have them on their payroll?

    Leave a comment:


  • Perry
    replied
    Seems apposite to re-visit this nostrum, two years later.

    Check this thread before responding.

    Leave a comment:


  • Davo36
    replied
    Originally posted by eri View Post
    well [email protected]@er me!

    "I think there's too much sugar-coating of what's going on in the Auckland market.
    Let's call a spade a spade.
    House prices are falling,"


    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12197920
    Yes the papers normally don't allow commentary like that.

    Their main advertisers - real estate agencies - tend not to like it.

    So the main message is generally positive, all the time.

    Leave a comment:


  • eri
    replied
    well [email protected]@er me!

    "I think there's too much sugar-coating of what's going on in the Auckland market.
    Let's call a spade a spade.
    House prices are falling,"


    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12197920

    Leave a comment:


  • Perry
    replied
    Generalities versus specifics and averages.

    Seems that the national trend is up, compared to the 2018 prediction / warning (over four years, though), that " house prices will fall gradually for the next four years."

    Leave a comment:


  • artemis
    replied
    Originally posted by Perry View Post
    How true is it?
    The useful chart at the below link shows REINZ actual NZ median sales prices per month. It can be adjusted to show individual locations and different time scales. Up and down but overall up. December takes a dip, but still up over 2018.

    http://www.interest.co.nz/charts/rea...an-price-reinz

    And this very simple chart shows the monthly percentage change in house sales, along with the total value of the sector. Apart from the GFC percentage changes are positive.

    http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/k...e-price-values

    Leave a comment:


  • eri
    replied
    how true is what?

    house price falls?

    google barfoot property reports

    Auckland property market edges towards first price decline in a decade

    07 January 2019Read the December 2018 housing market update from Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director, Peter Thompson.

    Leave a comment:


  • Perry
    replied
    One Year Later

    How true is it?

    Originally posted by eri View Post
    Westpac's New Zealand economics team is warning house prices will fall gradually for the next four years,

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...-familiar-tune

    Leave a comment:


  • Wayne
    replied
    Originally posted by Nick G View Post
    All the schools and scientists are wrong.
    About ?

    Leave a comment:


  • Nick G
    replied
    All the schools and scientists are wrong.

    Leave a comment:


  • Don't believe the Hype
    replied
    amazing what you can learn on PT forums.

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