Predictions for 2018

[wfa]

Auckland housing market could suffer same big falls as Australia

Hi all, watched this on OneNews last night:

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/economists-say-auckland-housing-market-could-suffer-same-price-falls-some-big-australian-cities

The media loves these fear mongering stories.

Comments?

[eri]

how meaningless a warning do you want?

""You could see a similar fall
that's not in our projections,
but it's in the realm of possibility
likewise you could see a rise,"

[Perry]

When is a Prediction NOT a Prediction?

Warns is code for speculates.

House prices 'could fall', Reserve Bank governor warns
13 Aug 2018

Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr has warned there is a risk of a correction to house prices, with asset prices unlikely to return to a "steady state" after the recent rise.

Why waste their breath?

Could fall

Risk of correction

The sky might fall.

What do those statements have in common?

Your guess is as good as mine.

To add to your amusement:
Can't believe this is a serious news item

[Viking]

When everyone wakes up and decides that life goes on things will go on being the same.

Twatford has found out that while he was making a lot of noise (empty tin cans do that ), that HNZ was actually doing a great job and now instead of making HNZ a govt. dept again, he is leaving it as it is. So no change there.
He is also starting to find out that building houses ain't as easy as waving jacinda's stardust wand. So again all noise.

The Greens have been embolded to rant and rave some more so expect lots of money to be wasted on their uneconomic idea's. Compulsory solar etc. More rail in Auckland and more bloody buses which the ratepayer has to subsidize someone else's transport. That's despite cars being cheaper than ever.

Winston HMMM. Probably won't make the end of the year. Sick man, apart from the fact that he can't get on with anyone he has to work with.
Now known as the Invisible man of NZ politics.

The trees won't get planted.
The houses won't get built.
Tax receipts will tumble.
NZ dollar to go higher.
Drugs won't be decriminalized.
Teachers will continue to moan and complain.
Charter School argument may split the Govt. They have some worthy opponents in their own ranks and sooner or later Hipkins might wake up and smell the roses and sense that actually the teachers unions are not his best friends.
Interest rates to be stable with a downside.
More money to DOC.
Councils will remain defiant of ratepayers spending to appease the non paying public.
NZTA will continue to build badly designed roundabouts causing a lot of accidents and costs for vehicle owners.
Govt. will be too lazy to set up an organization to help SME.'s.
Mobie will become even more inefficient and behave even more like Attila the Hun.
Landlords will as usual be the bad guys. (Nothing changes).

I'm sure there is more.

Just remember "it's never good or bad out there, only what you think it is."

Don't let the naysayers obliterate your dreams.

Just thought I would look back. Only one I really got wrong so far has been the dollar, and it hurt.
But that will be reclaimed via depreciation over the next several years.
Still time for a few more to happen.

[Perry]

Nearly the end of 2018! How are all those predictions looking, now?

[Perry]

Will They Ever Learn?

Another outfit that should give up on predictions: NIWA (Negligibly Intelligent Weather Assessments)

Sluggish start to spring with high likelihood of El niño, and a dry summer
1 Aug 2018

Niwa is seeing increasing El niño patterns forming, meaning a hot dry summer is probably coming to NZ's east coast, Niwa principal scientist forecaster Chris Brandolino says. This means there will be "above average" temperatures, less rainfall on the east, and drier soil conditions.

Big wet in Waihi and Hawke's Bay. And there was lots of rain in HB earlier in December.

Hhmmm . . . Must get the 2019 Predictions thread started . . .

[PC]

Global warming is settled science though...

[Perry]

Global warming is settled science though...

Only where and when money is involved!

[eri]

digging over the future

will always include a vast, worthless overburden

but it's done

to unearth

the gems

of correct

https://www.stuff.co.nz/entertainment/film/109587499/replicants-radiation-and-death-by-reality-tv-nine-cinematic-mostly-postapocalyptic-visions-of-2019

[Bob Kane]

Global warming is settled science though...

Except for the 'global warming' conventions that are held frequently in many attractive parts of the world where everyone flies in and has a great time deciding how to spend other peoples money.
I feel the conventions are a rort in that the participants use them to generate income for themselves.
The global warming claim is used to shame anyone who challenges this rort.

[AlFa]

Global warming is settled science though...

Would you agree the planet is going through final stage of last ice age? And it results in climate getting warmer?
Would you agree there's physical evidence of fossil ferns in Antarctica?
Would you agree humans tend to overestimate their importance but keep dying in millions from nature made tornadoes/tsunami/earthquakes?
Would you agree (as above stated) people looooove free money?

Now stop and think (if you can) - do you really think Earth would notice humans gone?

[Learning]

Now stop and think (if you can) - do you really think Earth would notice humans gone?

Assuming humans do nothing to cause warming but nature (trees) help keep it balanced/slow down change, then if every person cut down/pull up/step on only one plant a year then humans disappeared, that's 7.5 billion extra plants per year could grow virtually unchanged each year (until localised vegetation saturation occurs)... so, yes I think after a few thousand years the planet would notice a very big difference without humans.

Only 700 years ago NZ was almost completely covered in thick forest. Now less than 30% of the country is covered in forest and we're a "pure green" country. In only a couple thousand years humans have given nature an almighty kick in the nadds. Not since the meteor that killed the dinosaurs has the earth suffered such a loss of vegetation.

[AlFa]

...

I thought people will misunderstood my comment and surely it happened. Earth is a planet not balanced ecosystem which is located on its surface.
But good point Learning - if human greed is not extinguished rather soon (which I personally can't see happening) nuclear war and following backslash from nature will clean this lovely rare rock we live on for now

[PC]

Would you agree the planet is going through final stage of last ice age? And it results in climate getting warmer?
Would you agree there's physical evidence of fossil ferns in Antarctica?
Would you agree humans tend to overestimate their importance but keep dying in millions from nature made tornadoes/tsunami/earthquakes?
Would you agree (as above stated) people looooove free money?

Now stop and think (if you can) - do you really think Earth would notice humans gone?

Anything that cleans up the air is all good.
Ever been to China? What an unbelievable polluted mess - a complete shock.
I guess that's why they're so studiously reducing their carbon emissions????

Whether anything is "settled" and not up for debate - well any neanderthal with that attitude just needs more poking in the ribs...before they go extinct.
Just the scientific method at work.

[Perry]

Westpac's New Zealand economics team is warning house prices will fall gradually for the next four years,

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...-familiar-tune

January 2018 was the date of that dubious pronouncement.

Mind you "four years" gives the soothsayers lots of wiggle room, does it not?