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Auckland - Where in the property clock?

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  • Auckland - Where in the property clock?

    Curious on where people think Auckland is on the property clock?

    Prices have doubled, lately though there seems to be less sales at auctions (most likely due to LVR restrictions) and prices seem to be getting lowered, and then the election is coming up

    Is it worth buying now while the lvr restrictions are at 40% or better to wait for a few years and the prices will be lower?
    Last edited by investorak; 15-03-2017, 03:03 PM.

  • #2
    I was at a seminar at the weekend and the consensus was we are just after 12, next 2 years should be in decline, think back to 2007 and see what happened there, would be another 10 years before we get any growth like we have seen in the last few years.

    Bargains are coming, but the difficulty will be in financing anything, the LVR rules are banks are not too keen on lending at the moment and they are not taking any more risk. So if you can buy I think there will be some very good deals available. I am noting lots of agents now calling me with deals, you couldn't say that a year ago.

    FH
    "DEBT BECOMES IRRELEVANT WITH INFLATION".

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    • #3
      all in the oct16 thread

      Last edited by eri; 15-03-2017, 04:45 PM.
      have you defeated them?
      your demons

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      • #4
        Interesting though that high end is unmoved. First house on clovelly sold for 4 mil last week. 4 asian buyers. Anything above 2 mil selling often before auction.

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        • #5
          In have alerts setup for new listings , - the listings just keep coming. If it continues they way they are , then vendors need to get more realistic with price expectations.

          Most of them still think they can ask whatever they want but only the distraught will sell cheap.

          I was thinking of buying again but for what , yield will not improve even if goes down by 10% , trading in a falling market is dangerous.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Frezzinghot View Post
            I was at a seminar at the weekend and the consensus was we are just after 12, next 2 years should be in decline, think back to 2007 and see what happened there, would be another 10 years before we get any growth like we have seen in the last few years.

            Bargains are coming, but the difficulty will be in financing anything, the LVR rules are banks are not too keen on lending at the moment and they are not taking any more risk. So if you can buy I think there will be some very good deals available. I am noting lots of agents now calling me with deals, you couldn't say that a year ago.



            FH
            Was that with Roy Fong- isn't he saying to keep buying in central Auckland. I see Gary is selling plenty of unit conversions to his students.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Bluecoat View Post
              Was that with Roy Fong- isn't he saying to keep buying in central Auckland. I see Gary is selling plenty of unit conversions to his students.
              Yes correct, he reackons we have a window before the asians return.I can't speak for Gary you will have to ask him yourself.

              FH
              "DEBT BECOMES IRRELEVANT WITH INFLATION".

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Frezzinghot View Post
                Yes correct, he reackons we have a window before the asians return.I can't speak for Gary you will have to ask him yourself.

                FH
                Am I right in saying only 6 months ago that Ron/Gary were saying the market would run until 2018 or beyond before plateauing? Now the advice (after the data has been released) is that it will decline for 2 years?

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Frezzinghot View Post
                  Yes correct, he reackons we have a window before the asians return.I can't speak for Gary you will have to ask him yourself.

                  FH
                  Why will Asians be returning to the market? Overseas or local?

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                  • #10
                    I read Chinese clamping down on $$ invested outside China by middle class. I'll post a link later.

                    Cheers

                    Donna
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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Don't believe the Hype View Post
                      Am I right in saying only 6 months ago that Ron/Gary were saying the market would run until 2018 or beyond before plateauing? Now the advice (after the data has been released) is that it will decline for 2 years?
                      I think they always said the downturn was coming in 2017 didn't they?
                      Squadly dinky do!

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by investorak View Post
                        Why will Asians be returning to the market? Overseas or local?
                        Its just what was spoken at the weekend, the chinese are quite a close knit community, I also have friends in my line of work who say similar things, they seem to have quite a handle on things like this in general I find.

                        FH
                        "DEBT BECOMES IRRELEVANT WITH INFLATION".

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Davo36 View Post
                          I think they always said the downturn was coming in 2017 didn't they?
                          Pretty much. '87, '97, '07, '17 was their clock. Ron said he didn't "know why, it just is" but if you look at the timing of credit bubbles that lead to property inflation it seems to be on a 10 year clock.
                          Free online Property Investment Course from iFindProperty, a residential investment property agency.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Davo36 View Post
                            I think they always said the downturn was coming in 2017 didn't they?
                            He said that at the 2015 APIA keynote.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Nick G View Post
                              Pretty much. '87, '97, '07, '17 was their clock. Ron said he didn't "know why, it just is" but if you look at the timing of credit bubbles that lead to property inflation it seems to be on a 10 year clock.
                              What data are you using that shows this exactly? The largest fall in real terms house prices in NZ occurred between 1973 and 1980. Then followed by a fall between 1990 and 1992/3.

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