Whipping a dead horse

[Don't believe the Hype]

At what point do you put your hand up and conceded that your idea was bad advice for the average punter looking for guidance circa 2012?

http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/money/83488358/should-you-buy-a-house-to-live-in-or-rent-and-invest-the-savings

[drelly]

And Bernard Hickey...

2009: Predicted 30% drop in house prices - http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/experts...sections-53388
2010: I was wrong about the 30%, it will be 10% - http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10664775
2012: Sells in Auckland and moves to Wellington, but does concede that he doesn't see it slowing down: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/n...ectid=10849613
2016: Let's just imagine prices will drop! - http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11675913

[Tjc]

Got to give him credit for sticking to the same tune I suppose... Probably should of just brought at house at the start though

[Anthonyacat]

He is certainly right about the share market though. Has been a much better investment than property, with equivalent levels of leverage. Trouble is, the banks won't lend 60-90% on your share portfolio, at 4-6% pa...

[Nick G]

Well your downside risk is a tad higher...

[Wayne]

The big problem is that most people who rent wouldn't save and invest the differance between renting and owning.
They spend it!

[PTILoveYou]

The only conversations my friends have with me is this.

Are you looking to buy Gary?

[PTILoveYou]

And Bernard Hickey...

2009: Predicted 30% drop in house prices - http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/experts...sections-53388
2010: I was wrong about the 30%, it will be 10% - http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10664775
2012: Sells in Auckland and moves to Wellington, but does concede that he doesn't see it slowing down: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/n...ectid=10849613
2016: Let's just imagine prices will drop! - http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11675913

This is how he generates traffic to his site. He has done pretty well promoting his website though, good on him!

[Don't believe the Hype]

He has a website? He must know what he's doing then

[Bobsyouruncle]

His whole profile is about traffic to his site. His revenue from paid traffic is considerable. The more stupid things he says the better in some ways. More stupid = more traffic.

[Anthonyacat]

Well your downside risk is a tad higher...

In the sharemarket? Don't think so, really, certainly not if you're well diversified. I'd be surprised if we ever see the whole NZX50 drop-and-stay-down-for-years like you've seen in all sorts of property markets globally.

There is certainly a lot more downside volatility, but there's a distinction between volatility and risk.

Isnt the a chance that your $1.2M house just won't sell because of your unlucky timing, but you desperately need the money so have to sell at a massive discount? Similar issue really.

[Anthonyacat]

The big problem is that most people who rent wouldn't save and invest the differance between renting and owning.
They spend it!

Yep. This is why it's still a good idea for many (most?) people to overcommit on a larger house than they need. Ties up their money on something valuable rather than cocktails and cars.

[Keys]

In the sharemarket? Don't think so, really, certainly not if you're well diversified. I'd be surprised if we ever see the whole NZX50 drop-and-stay-down-for-years like you've seen in all sorts of property markets globally.

Were you around in 1987?

[drelly]

We put our family home on the market in 1987. It took 2.5 years to sell.

[Wayne]

Were you around in 1987?

Yes - and not all shares fell through the floor.
And they didn't stay down forever.
And people always bring up 1987.