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Population growth vs number of houses being built

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  • Population growth vs number of houses being built

    I'm just starting to look and research what is the population growth of areas vs the number of new homes being created (so new houses, apartments, minor dwellings on the back, garage conversions, all new homes).

    Does anyone have figures on this already for the last year and maybe the last 4 or 5 years?

    I'm going to start research on Hamilton first, then Tauranga and Auckland. As my gut feel is that Hamilton and Tauranga are building and creating more homes than population growth. Whereas I think Auckland will be the other way around.

    I'll post my findings on here, but if anyone already has any stats for this, that would be appreciated!

    Ross
    Book a free chat here
    Ross Barnett - Property Accountant

  • #2
    Also maybe check the population size of the town vs the average price of dwellings, and compare that with all the towns and cities to see which ones are more affordable than others of similar population size?

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    • #3
      Waikato -

      From 2006 to 2013 census grew 22,815 to 403,638
      So approx growth in Waikato population is 3300 per year

      Building consents Nov 2014 to October 2015 = 2,756

      As at 2013 Census, there were 152,493 occupied dwellings.
      - note also 29,514 unoccupied!
      - so 2.65 people per dwelling

      So Waikato is building 2,756 dwellings, that should house 7303 extra people, each year.

      But Waikato is only growing by 3,300. So building twice as much as needed!
      Book a free chat here
      Ross Barnett - Property Accountant

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      • #4
        BOP -
        From 2006 to 2013 census grew 10,362 to 267,741
        So approx growth in Waikato population is 1480 per year

        Building consents Nov 2014 to October 2015 = 1,734

        As at 2013 Census, there were 103,500 occupied dwellings.
        - note also 13,473 unoccupied!
        - so 2.6 people per dwelling

        So BOP is building 1,734 dwellings, that should house 4508 extra people, each year.

        But BOP is only growing by 1,480. So building three times as much as needed!
        Book a free chat here
        Ross Barnett - Property Accountant

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        • #5
          Auckland
          From 2006 to 2013 census grew 110,589 to 2,415,550
          So approx growth in Auckland population is 16,000 per year

          Building consents Nov 2014 to October 2015 = 8,935

          As at 2013 Census, there were 473,448 occupied dwellings.
          - note also 33,360 unoccupied! Not that many more unoccupied than Waikato!
          - so 3 people per dwelling

          So Auckland is building 8,935 dwellings, that should house 26,805 extra people, each year.

          But Auckland is only growing by 16,000. So building a bit under 2 times as much as needed!
          Book a free chat here
          Ross Barnett - Property Accountant

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          • #6
            Tried to find some up to date population growth

            - Auckland expecting 1.34% or around 32,000. So a lot more growth than 2006 to 2013. Following figures above, would mean 5,000 too much growth, so this would mean a shortage which makes sense.

            - Waikato expecting 1.1% or around 4,400 per year. Still have new builds for 3,000 more than growth

            - BOP expecting 1.2% or around 3,213 per year. Still have new builds for 1,300 more than growth.

            Overall - I struggle to see how Auckland can go down, with less new builds than population growth. But on the other hand I struggle to see how Hamilton and Tauranga can boom for a long period, when there is more builds than required.

            Ross
            Book a free chat here
            Ross Barnett - Property Accountant

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Rosco View Post
              - note also 29,514 unoccupied!
              How can there be so many unoccupied dwellings??? Empty/abandoned farm sheds?

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              • #8
                Good analysis Rosco, thanks for sharing.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Gary Lin View Post
                  How can there be so many unoccupied dwellings??? Empty/abandoned farm sheds?
                  I believe this is based on census data, so it's only a snapshot from one day and doesn't not mean these houses are abandoned, i.e. people away, houses being renovated, deceased estates, houses in transactions or incomplete construction etc.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Gary Lin View Post
                    How can there be so many unoccupied dwellings??? Empty/abandoned farm sheds?
                    Interesting how there is at least the equivalent of 3 years new dwellings, sitting empty in Auckland. I would have thought with the housing shortage that these would have been used up?

                    The Waikato figures will be a result of Huntly, Meremere and other dying areas. Hamilton itself has 2,880 unoccupied and 50,820 occupied dwellings at 2013 census.

                    Ross
                    Book a free chat here
                    Ross Barnett - Property Accountant

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Rosco View Post
                      Interesting how there is at least the equivalent of 3 years new dwellings, sitting empty in Auckland. I would have thought with the housing shortage that these would have been used up?

                      Ross
                      Overseas owners....

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                      • #12
                        But wouldn't these then be rented out? So still occupied?

                        Or are you saying that a lot of overseas owners, own the property and just leave it empty?

                        Ross
                        Book a free chat here
                        Ross Barnett - Property Accountant

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Don't forget about holiday homes etc. a lot of kiwis own 2nd homes in Waikato, and bay of plenty areas.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Rosco View Post
                            But wouldn't these then be rented out? So still occupied?

                            Or are you saying that a lot of overseas owners, own the property and just leave it empty?

                            Ross
                            I think it will be a mix of both.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Rosco View Post
                              But wouldn't these then be rented out? So still occupied? Or are you saying that a lot of overseas owners, own the property and just leave it empty?

                              Ross
                              That does get mentioned in the press from time to time. In Auckland tax free capital gain can well exceed the rent over the same period, so why take the risk and hassle of tenants.

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