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Will a declining NZD be good or bad for property in NZ?

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  • Will a declining NZD be good or bad for property in NZ?

    How will it effect house prices?

    How will it effect immigration?

    How will it effect rental demand and prices?

    Any other comments?
    “Our favorite holding period is forever.”

  • #2
    Am I on track.....

    Cheaper home loans.

    Immigrating to NZ - get better exchange rate.

    Imports more expensive (incl. petrol). Building products go up - cost to build goes up - less building activity as either less profit for developers or less purchasers due to increased price to purchase or new homes may become the darling of cashed up immigrants (not NZ FHBs).

    Good for NZ Tourism - the industry we are trying to grow.

    Good for Dairy industry.

    cheers,

    Donna
    SEARCH PropertyTalk, About PropertyTalk

    BusinessBlogs - the best business articles are found here

    Comment


    • #3
      Some good thoughts Donna.

      I am thinking overseas buyers who have bought recently may get spooked and consider selling. At the same time there is a much greater incentive for new overseas buyers to buy into NZ with a lower NZD. So maybe the net outcome will be no overall impact. I think it is likely to increase interest overall though so more overseas buyers.

      Best time in 5 years to immigrate to or move back to NZ in terms of xe rates. More buyers coming into the market.

      Cost to build goes up. Cost to commute goes up / houses with closer proximity to jobs = higher priced houses.

      Good for the export economy. More money for people to spend... on houses.

      I'm glad I bought property overseas last year! It's suddenly worth a lot more to me in NZD. A low NZD is not good for visiting that property though...
      “Our favorite holding period is forever.”

      Comment


      • #4
        How will it effect immigration? - Up

        How will it effect rental demand and prices? - Up

        Any other comments? - Bad for renters and local kiwis

        Silver lining is Shamebeel can now sell more stories and books

        Comment


        • #5
          A large part of the offshore buying will be driven by NZD being viewed as a safe place compared to many other currencies that are using QE to devalue (USD/Euro). If the NZD is projected to fall as low as 60c/USD, that is an in-built headwind to that investment.

          Note too that it makes NZ wages look far less attractive to would-be immigrants.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by elguapo View Post
            A large part of the offshore buying will be driven by NZD being viewed as a safe place compared to many other currencies that are using QE to devalue (USD/Euro). If the NZD is projected to fall as low as 60c/USD, that is an in-built headwind to that investment.
            I don't recall NZD every dropped as low as 60c/USD, even during 2008/9 GFC, and I think this is all talk and BS.

            Originally posted by elguapo View Post
            Note too that it makes NZ wages look far less attractive to would-be immigrants.
            Maybe less Englishmen will coming over, but that won't stop people from Asia where the wages in NZ is still far superior. Plus they come here for life style, not just money.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Gary Lin View Post
              I don't recall NZD every dropped as low as 60c/USD, even during 2008/9 GFC, and I think this is all talk and BS.
              Obviously you are too young and need to look at history - it does repeat dispite the songs assertion otherwise.

              Lowest it has been was 38c.
              Was 50c for a long time.
              Long term mean used to be around 60c.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by elguapo View Post

                Note too that it makes NZ wages look far less attractive to would-be immigrants.
                Yes, but if you're selling up in UK and moving to NZ you get a whole lot more NZD for your GBP. If you can keep a rental in the UK and derive income from that and sell your PPOR and move to NZD with that cash you are in a great position.
                “Our favorite holding period is forever.”

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Wayne View Post
                  Obviously you are too young and need to look at history - it does repeat dispite the songs assertion otherwise.

                  Lowest it has been was 38c.
                  Was 50c for a long time.
                  Long term mean used to be around 60c.
                  Either way I'm not fussed at all.

                  If NZD drops, good, more Chinese comrades (strange that I still call them that even though I'm NZ citizen since 1999) coming over and push house prices even further! and I can retire in this property cycle!

                  If NZD goes to 80c/USD, economy goes down the drain, house prices drop sooner, and I can buy lots again!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Personally I like a higher NZD. One of my businesses pays for a lot of services in USD. We are going to feel some pain if the NZD goes too low.

                    I think a lower NZD doesn't look good for affordable housing!
                    “Our favorite holding period is forever.”

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by donthatetheplayer View Post
                      I think a lower NZD doesn't look good for affordable housing!
                      All my chinese friends are checking under their mattresses to see if they have any more RMB to send to NZ!!!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Gary Lin View Post
                        I don't recall NZD every dropped as low as 60c/USD, even during 2008/9 GFC, and I think this is all talk and BS.
                        You wait till the Fed starts raising later this year while we are still lowering.

                        That will change your mind I reckon.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by speights boy View Post
                          You wait till the Fed starts raising later this year while we are still lowering.

                          That will change your mind I reckon.
                          Exciting times ahead =)

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by speights boy View Post
                            You wait till the Fed starts raising later this year while we are still lowering.
                            Good time to buy USD you think SB?
                            “Our favorite holding period is forever.”

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Gary Lin View Post
                              I don't recall NZD every dropped as low as 60c/USD, even during 2008/9 GFC, and I think this is all talk and BS.
                              4th March 2009 the USD was 49.4c to the NZD.


                              Originally posted by Gary Lin View Post
                              Maybe less Englishmen will coming over, but that won't stop people from Asia where the wages in NZ is still far superior. Plus they come here for life style, not just money.
                              How are people from Asia who earn wages far less than in NZ going to afford houses in Auckland?

                              Comment

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