Migration threat to housing
JAMES WEIR Last updated 05:00 22/03/2014
Migration has boomed to a ten-year high, and economists are warning that stronger than expected migration, perhaps 40,000 by the end of the year, could reignite the housing market.
For the month of February, there were 3500 more migrant arrivals than departures, the highest in a decade, according to Statistics NZ figures out yesterday.
The annual net gain was more than 29,000, but at recent monthly rates, that could head towards 38,000 or even 40,000 - close to record levels seen a decade ago.
As fewer New Zealanders leave for Australia and more foreigners arrive here, the trend in migration has been rising since late 2012.
More migrants are arriving from China than from Britain for the first time in a decade.
The latest net gain was the highest since the 30,100 annual gain in the year to February 2004.
The boom in migration in the early 2000s was a factor in rapidly rising house prices during the period.
If the rate of migration in the past three months continued for a full year, the net gain would be about 38,000, close to the peak of the migration boom in 2003. That would be equal to a 0.8 per cent population increase, even before any natural increase, Deutsche Bank economists said.
"Stronger than expected migrant flows risk reigniting the housing market and thus remain a key source of upside risk to the Reserve Bank's growth and domestic inflation forecasts," Deutsche Bank said.
JAMES WEIR Last updated 05:00 22/03/2014
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For the month of February, there were 3500 more migrant arrivals than departures, the highest in a decade, according to Statistics NZ figures out yesterday.
The annual net gain was more than 29,000, but at recent monthly rates, that could head towards 38,000 or even 40,000 - close to record levels seen a decade ago.
As fewer New Zealanders leave for Australia and more foreigners arrive here, the trend in migration has been rising since late 2012.
More migrants are arriving from China than from Britain for the first time in a decade.
The latest net gain was the highest since the 30,100 annual gain in the year to February 2004.
The boom in migration in the early 2000s was a factor in rapidly rising house prices during the period.
If the rate of migration in the past three months continued for a full year, the net gain would be about 38,000, close to the peak of the migration boom in 2003. That would be equal to a 0.8 per cent population increase, even before any natural increase, Deutsche Bank economists said.
"Stronger than expected migrant flows risk reigniting the housing market and thus remain a key source of upside risk to the Reserve Bank's growth and domestic inflation forecasts," Deutsche Bank said.
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